trancejeremy said:
Still, just by going by what I've seen on ebay, I really don't think there is all that much demand for AM stuff. The prices for the rulebook (at least the softcover version) on ebay are very very low.
The rulebook prices on eBay may be dampened by the fact that the PDF is available for free.
As far as overall demand, I can report that the Ars Magica book we released within the past month (Sanctuary of Ice) has outsold the last four D20 books that we've published. Despite it being more expensive ($29.95 for 128 pp, hardcover).
However, a large part of Ars Magica's sales strength is outside the USA -- where d20 is weakest (and where the market in general is least impacted by the d20 glut).
Whenever a thread comes up talking about PDF piracy, a bunch of apologists leap forward to present the story of Baen, and use that to argue that sharing of PDFs of RPG books actually helps the publishers (even if those ingrate publishers are too myopic to see that it benefits them for someone else to give their intellectual property away for free). I thought it was an intriguing hypothesis, so I decided to put our money on the line by trying it with Ars Magica.
I did find some interesting things. For example, the geographical breakdown of downloads (US versus non-US) pretty well matched what we see in paper product sales.
But I was surprised that the release of the PDF correlated with a nosedive of sales of the printed rulebook, while there was NOT a comparable nosedive in sales of the supplements. This is not proof of causation, but it's significant evidence. Certainly, we did not see the increase in sales that was promised by the Baen-inspired apologists.
So, at a cost of thousands of dollars in lost revenues, I've unfortunately satisfied myself that, whatever may be the case in the mass market fiction field, and whatever may be the reason, free downloads of entire RPG books are detrimental to the sales of the paper products. (Partial downloads/teasers/samples are, as far as I can tell, a good thing.) I really wanted the results to be different, but that's what the experiment has told me.