Let's also be clear that there are multiple differences between the original Red Box and it's later iterations, other than the expandable nature of the BECMI series. No other Basic/Starter D&D set since the Mentzer box has 1) been sold in mainstream retail outlets and toystores like Wal-Mart, Target, Sears and Toys'R'Us;
This is not actually true. The '91 Basic Set, at the very least, was still getting pushed into mainstream retail outlets.
and 2) been in release at a time when D&D was already massively popular (i.e. numerous news stories, TV commercials, school gaming clubs, Saturday morning cartoon, etc.). To claim that the expandable nature of the game past the contents of the Basic Box was at the root of the Basic game's success is, IMO, ignoring a large body of evidence to the contrary.
Like I said: You might be right. The fact that during its periods of greatest success D&D had a boxed set that wasn't pay-to-preview might be a total coincidence. And the fact that the game went into decline right around the time they switched to pay-to-preview boxed sets might also be a coincidence.
There is, after all, a distinct lack of breadth in the empirical evidence to separate causation from correlation.
But I'd love it if WotC would give that to us some day. Unfortunately, the Starter Set obviously delays that.
What I find amusing in those links is that, in the first, he says the 4 issues are that:
-There hasn't been a game packaged to look like a game to the average customer;
-There hasn't been a version packaged to sell through mainstream stores;
-The entry cost for the game has been too high;
-The investment time of reading the books is too much.
And he mentions that the solo play adventure is a super awesome thing.
So, along comes the Red Box, which absolutely addresses the first two issues, and has a solo play adventure.... none of which he mentions at all in his follow-up post.
I think you're misreading what he wrote: His first qualification is that a legitimate gateway game that isn't pay-to-preview needs to
exist. Since he feels that the Starter Set
is a pay-to-preview product, the fact that it's packaged in a box and sold through mainstream stores is irrelevant -- just like it was irrelevant with all the other boxed basic sets sold in the past 20 years (many of which were sold through mainstream stores).
Notably, for example, you're misquoting him. He didn't say "there hasn't been a game packaged to look like a game to the average customer". He said "there hasn't been any
legitimate version of the game packaged to look like a game to the average consumer" (emphasis added).
You can't sell what you don't have. And WotC still doesn't have it.
If only WotC put out quick start rules and an entire adventure for free on their website.
Oh, hmm. I guess they did.
I'm not really sure what you think your point is. I think it's a great idea to offer free demos of your product. But that doesn't negate the fact that the Starter Set is a pay-to-preview product.
I know fanboys can have a difficult time holding nuanced opinions. But it is, in fact, possible to say, "WotC made a smart decision over here." While simultaneously believing that they made a poor decision somewhere else.
Anyway, this thread continues to suggest to me that people who already play the current edition feel the red box will bring in new players, sometimes via older players, and people who don't play or like the current edition seem to be saying they aren't interested.
Similarly, I think it's quite possible that pre-existing "edition bias" is factoring into people's opinions here. But, frankly, I was saying the same thing about the 3E Basic Games when they were released. And the '91 Basic Set when it was released. My opinion that pay-to-preview products are not the best way to sell D&D is pretty much edition neutral.
And the fact that the Starter Set isn't doing anything that hasn't been attempted by one of the half dozen or more basic games in the past 20 years isn't even a matter of opinion.
I also believe that there's some legitimately great stuff happening with Essentials. I just wish they had put more of it in the Starter Set.