Pathfinder 1E D&D and Pathfinder tied for first place on ICv2 Q3 RPG sales list

[Herschel]

The example was just an example of how the statistics might be interpreted. I used personal statistics because I had those at hand.

In other words, it was simply an illustration as to the different possibilities of statistical funnery. It's kind of like someone giving an "average" can use either mean, median or mode to represent it, but all three actual measures have different meanings (and often values).

Snapshots are a tool, sometimes an indication, but they aren't a hard data set.

 

[malkav666]

Congrats Paizo,

Its good to see some reputable recognition. I see Pathfinder growing in my area very strongly. A year ago there was not that much PF in my area, and I had to special order the books from my FLGS, now the store carries a whole PF section rivaling the size of the D&D section and there are always PF games going on the weekends when we play there.

Keep on doing what you are doing, because its been great.

love,

malkav

 

[gamerprinter]

The example was just an example of how the statistics might be interpreted. I used personal statistics because I had those at hand.

In other words, it was simply an illustration as to the different possibilities of statistical funnery. It's kind of like someone giving an "average" can use either mean, median or mode to represent it, but all three actual measures have different meanings (and often values).

Snapshots are a tool, sometimes an indication, but they aren't a hard data set.

Except ICv2 is a market research consulting company that both WotC and Paizo take seriously and use their numbers along with their internal numbers - they are a recognized RPG industry tracker and have been so for several years. They serve the industry and not the fans.

Regarding the 'snap shot' there are no other public data sets - so this is as official as any of us will get.

And if you read the ICv2 magazine, that this press release only gives the Q3 report, they explain their methodology there - and it is quantifiable.

If Wotc can take ICv2 seriously, why can't you?

GP

 

[Mark CMG]

So we maybe can conclude that DDI subscription represent a controlling portion of the 4E player base?

That'd be my guess, and once you add in the revenues from DDI, PF goes back to a distant second. I'm not a fan of the isolation policy taken by WotC post-OGL, but you cannot ignore the DDI revenue stream if you are going to discuss sales of an RPG comparatively.

 

[IronWolf]

That'd be my guess, and once you add in the revenues from DDI, PF goes back to a distant second. I'm not a fan of the isolation policy taken by WotC post-OGL, but you cannot ignore the DDI revenue stream if you are going to discuss sales of an RPG comparatively.

You can't discount the Pathfinder subscription sales either.

 

[Mark CMG]

You can't discount the Pathfinder subscription sales either.

I'm assuming that Paizo now reports those and their direct sales otherwise this would not be news. I get the feeling that they did not used to report all of that.

 

[Retreater]

What distresses me about this news is that it indicates that the hobby is not getting new players. If this were true.

Hear me out.

4E was designed to appeal to new players. Simplified system. Getting the word out through new channels.

Pathfinder is the safe haven for older players - the dedicated fans who will purchase their products directly from the company or at hobby stores (it's not like PF has a real presence outside of the niche market). Their books are luxury priced, daunting for new players, etc.

I can back this up at least anecdotally because I have 3 new players in my group. They will not consider purchasing the PF Core Rulebook, but D&D Essentials is something they are considering. [Even given the regular PF players, three will not purchase the book - to them it's too expensive and large.]

Bascially, what this seems to tell me is only that Wizards isn't selling a lot of D&D books at hobby stores. My guess is that if you look at Amazon and big chain bookstores (which IME carry 4E products 3:1 over PF) and add to that the DDI subscriptions, WotC is quite healthy.

Really, this probably says more about the health of hobby stores than it does about any of the companies represented.

Retreater

 

[Perram]

I'm assuming that Paizo now reports those and their direct sales otherwise this would not be news. I get the feeling that they did not used to report all of that.

Paizo has stated on their forum's thread on this subject that their direct sales and their subscriptions are not included in these numbers.

 

[Steel_Wind]

Wow.


I love the ignoring of the post from Lisa Stevens that explains all of this and puts it into context – and confirms it.
Don’t you think that might be an important element? Isn’t that a gem that ought to be put into the hopper as well?

Lisa Stevens, CEO of Paizo posted yesterday on the Paizo forums that ICV2’s report jibes with Paizo’s sense of the market and their place within it as well.

ProfessorCirno wrote:

Not to rain on anyone's parade (this is what, the fourth time that phrase is used here? ), but the way they judged this isn't exactly "scientific" ;p It was literally them going to a handful of stores and going "So uh, what RPGs are your best sellers?" and attempting to extrapolate widespread conclusions based on the responses.
​

Lisa Stevens says: It may not be scientific, but it jives well with some much more scientific data that we have internally. We will never be able to have 100% transparency about how sales of somebody else's products are going, but we can get some pretty good data that customers don't have access to. And that data tells us that icV2 is pretty much right on. Which is pretty cool, IMHO! -Lisa

Lisa goes on to note that they have excellent hardcaore data on PRECISELY how well 4E’s and their own sales are performing at the Big Box book stores as well as Amazon. For those in the know and up to date on how that market works, they’ll know that Lisa ought to know those numbers with precision and why hose hard sales numbers on titles and sales volume is available to Paizo.


Lisa Stevens also knows her own subscriber sales to customers on Paizo – to the penny – and has a very good guesstimate of the amount of DDI subscribers as well, given the way that WotC accounts for those subscribers on their own forum member totals (not as clear as to the income generated from those subscribers given variable monthly rates—but as a ballpark # of subscribers? – it’s good enough).


In short, blah blah blah “this is all anecdotal and I don’t believe it” runs up against a relatively information rich CEO’s opinion which in effect says" And that data tells us that icV2 is pretty much right on".


So you’ve got designers and developers and the publisher jumping into the thread and clearly basking in the warm and sweet glow of market success. Victory in a market competition like this is extremely sweet and to many, unlooked for. Clearly, the ICV2 third quarter report was not a report which Paizo was dismissing or treating as a “rogue poll”. Their reaction to it was one of elation, exoneration and confirmation. High fives and a forty dollar steak time.


Contrast that with what emerges from many posters here? I’d characterize that fairly and dispassionately as sour grapes. Whatever the personal motives for individuals’ posting in the manner that some have chosen to, the overall impression such expressed doubts and misgivings leave is one of putting fingers in both of your ears and singing loudly so that you can ignore an event that does not accord with your personal preferences.

 

[Retreater]

Lisa goes on to note that they have excellent hardcaore data on PRECISELY how well 4E’s and their own sales are performing at the Big Box book stores as well as Amazon.

In that case, consider my post uninformed. My apologies.

Bearing all that in mind, I still think that this is bad news for WotC and the hobby itself. I like PF, but I don't think that it's as potent of a "gateway drug" for new players as 4E. It doesn't have the penetration to reach casual or new gamers that D&D does at this time. It exists almost exclusively to please their fans; which is great if you're a fan - but if you're not I could not imagine a more intimidating entry into a hobby than the Pathfinder Core Rulebook.

Add the Advanced Player's Guide to that mix, and it ends up feeling like a Trigonometry course.

Retreater