D&D 5E Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?

[sunshadow21]

I fully grasp that Pathfinder sold less than 4e and even Essentials, initially, and pulled ahead only when the release schedule in the wake of Essentials slowed to a trickle. I get that Pathfinder has enjoyed a solid #1 status for the couple of years that D&D has /not been published at all/. I get that there's a core of Piazo fans who are only Paizo fans because they conceived an abiding hatred for WotC, and they may /)come back. But they didn't topple D&D from the #1 spot. WotC did that by not offering enough (or, for two years /any/) product).

I don't think you give nearly enough credit to Paizo. WotC certainly helped them out a lot by faltering, but Paizo still had to make sure to take certain steps to take full advantage of the opening. Paizo today is quite strong and would probably have a very different experience vs the numbers that 4E and Essentials put up. They couldn't full out beat WotC, but they can certainly realistically compete for the #1 spot over the long term.

 

[Tony Vargas]

I fully expect them to shoot up to #1 initially, and for a short time after release, but they won't automatically stay there just because they are suddenly publishing books again.

They will need to keep publishing books, yes.

I don't think you give nearly enough credit to Paizo. WotC certainly helped them out a lot by faltering, but Paizo still had to make sure to take certain steps to take full advantage of the opening.

I don't begrudge Paizo their obvious competence in catering to the grudge a segment of the fanbase conceived against WotC. I'm sure they can continue to do so for some time.

 

[sunshadow21]

I don't begrudge Paizo their obvious competence in catering to the grudge a segment of the fanbase conceived against WotC. I'm sure they can continue to do so for some time.

What you call a grudge, others call filling an interest that WotC chose not to worry about any longer. I suspect that at this point, most PF players could care less about WotC one way or another. If WotC produces a system different enough to be worth paying attention to while still being familiar enough to interest them, most of them will at least look at it. It would take an extraordinary system to make them abandon the investment they have already made in PF, or whatever ever other system they might be playing currently, however, and I just don't see that being the case here; 5E might pull in some lost to the OSR crowd, but hasn't really made an effort to recapture the lost 3.x/OGL/PF crowd. The end result of PF players generally continuing to play PF has nothing to do with holding a grudge, no matter how much some pro-WotC people want to believe that's all it is. PF is a good system, 4E was a good system, 5E will be a good system; they all have strengths, weaknesses, and will appeal to different people. Neither 4E nor PF were able to knock each other out, and that situation won't change just because WotC has a new system out. It's time for people on both sides to move on and accept that it is possible for the two companies and systems to coexist.

 

[Ranes]

They will need to keep publishing books, yes.

I don't begrudge Paizo their obvious competence in catering to the grudge a segment of the fanbase conceived against WotC. I'm sure they can continue to do so for some time.

Paizo was competently catering to WotC's audience long before any part of that had a grudge against WotC. To suggest the company's subsequent success has therefore been primarily the consequence of a grudge held by some fraction of that audience is nonsense.

Incidentally, I do not play Pathfinder. Nor do I care who is 'number one'.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Neither 4E nor PF were able to knock each other out, and that situation won't change just because WotC has a new system out. It's time for people on both sides to move on and accept that it is possible for the two companies and systems to coexist.

There's no question they can co-exist. Every RPG co-exists with D&D.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'knock eachother out.' 4e was number one for it's brief run. Essentials was number one until after the initial flurry of books and boxed sets when slowed the pace of publication to a crawl. Pathfinder solidly claimed number one after Essentials ceased putting out new books, entirely. On the one hand, Esssentials sure looked knocked out in the sense that it threw in the towel and stopped producing. OTOH, Pathfinder only really 'won' when D&D didn't show up.

D&D is showing up, now.

 

[Sword of Spirit]

So what happens if Paizo starts publishing materials for 5e...?

W It would take an extraordinary system to make them abandon the investment they have already made in PF, or whatever ever other system they might be playing currently, however, and I just don't see that being the case here;

For some of those who went to Pathfinder, it was an extraordinary disaffection with WotC that made them abandon the vast investment they already made in D&D. Note that most of the fluff books they own are still almost entirely relevant with 5e material. Campaign setting support is kinda a big deal to some people.

So if 5e suddenly reactivates the ongoing value of their prior investment in the D&D Multiverse, I can see that being potentially worth abandoning some Pathfinder crunch books for a lot of people, unless they are just in love with Golarion. Pathfinder rules are essentially D&D, but its cosmology is a whole 'nother thing.

 

[Shemeska]

So what happens if Paizo starts publishing materials for 5e...?

So if 5e suddenly reactivates the ongoing value of their prior investment in the D&D Multiverse, I can see that being potentially worth abandoning some Pathfinder crunch books for a lot of people, unless they are just in love with Golarion. Pathfinder rules are essentially D&D, but its cosmology is a whole 'nother thing.

Pathfinder's cosmology is a giant love letter to the 1e/2e/3e Great Wheel. Trust me on this one.

 

[sunshadow21]

D&D is showing up, now.

And people who think that really matters to Paizo, or anyone else, in the long run are fooling themselves. Paizo will continue to battle for #1 just like it did during the time that 4E and Essentials was being produced. It won't be #1 every quarter, but neither will 5E. Paizo will continue to adapt and grow, just like it has since WotC first took the magazines away from them. Since as early as the 3.5 era, WotC has been bleeding D&D customers, who have been buying other products ever since. 5E will stop the bleeding to a large degree, but will not likely do much to win most people back into the fold and away from their now much stronger competitors, both Paizo and others. It's still at it's heart the same D&D, meaning that most existing gamers already have the core of the content in at least one, if not two or three, different versions, so it's not like most people need yet another ruleset built along the same basic ideas. In the end, the name doesn't mean much if the basic gameplay and content is fundamentally the same as something people already have. While Paizo found a ready market for people looking for more of basically the same, I don't see WotC walking into that kind of market. They are going to have to work hard to distinguish themselves from the pack, and will need a lot more than a well known name to do it over the long haul.

 

[BryonD]

I fully grasp that Pathfinder sold less than 4e and even Essentials, initially, and pulled ahead only when the release schedule in the wake of Essentials slowed to a trickle.

Of course, it slowed to a trickle only after the sales started to drop. But hey, what's reality got to do with anything?

I get that there's a core of Piazo fans who are only Paizo fans because they conceived an abiding hatred for WotC, and they may /)come back. But they didn't topple D&D from the #1 spot.

Yep. Paizo had nothing to do with it. Like or dislike for 4E had nothing to do with it. Like or dislike for PF (3.5 core) had nothing to do with it.
Nobody anywhere actually enjoys PF, it is just played as a slavish devotion to hatred of WotC at a deep personal level. (though don't sell yourself short Tony, in a few of our secret cabal meetings, I've had people admit to me that it has more to do with wanting to bug you than WotC. I'm allowed to say that now that we have eliminated the temptation of us playing 4E.)

If 5e doesn't shoot immediately to #1, it will because WotC screwed up in some colossal way. They've shown no sign of doing so. The build-up to the new release has been comparatively polite and workmanlike, this time. The content of the game is derivative of past editions, and thus comfortably familiar to existing fans. The only thing that might trip them up is how they approach the OGL.

Do you realize they said they are not going to release a lot of books for 5E?

 

[sunshadow21]

For some of those who went to Pathfinder, it was an extraordinary disaffection with WotC that made them abandon the vast investment they already made in D&D. Note that most of the fluff books they own are still almost entirely relevant with 5e material. Campaign setting support is kinda a big deal to some people.

So if 5e suddenly reactivates the ongoing value of their prior investment in the D&D Multiverse, I can see that being potentially worth abandoning some Pathfinder crunch books for a lot of people, unless they are just in love with Golarion. Pathfinder rules are essentially D&D, but its cosmology is a whole 'nother thing.

Early on, that was probably true, but for most of the people still playing PF, I doubt it. Those unhappy with WotC were just as likely to get unhappy with Paizo and move on to something else again. I can see a lot of people supporting both, but I just don't see a lot of people abandoning PF entirely. Paizo's adventure and world support are going to be very hard for WotC to match.