Ovinomancer
No flips for you!
Heh You're mixing up estimating for data. What I am doing is generating live data by playtesting encounters. What you are doing (and I do as well) is estimating. An upside of estimating is that it can indicate expectations over a larger (even the full) set of cases. A downside is that the devil is in the detail: one often doesn't notice what is omitted until live data has been generated and compared. For instance, the assumption that over an 8 round combat for a foe with Multiattack, there will be 8*2 attacks. Playtesting proves that doesn't always happen.
I haven't been lucky at all. That is easy to see because of the tolerances involved. There have been zero close-shaves, no could-have-gone-either-ways, etc, for the BS party. Shield use hasn't been swingy or volatile, it has been 0-1 for the two giant group, 1-2 for the three giant group. What I think would be more telling would be to get some casters in on the side of the foes. Maybe a Hold Person or two...
To answer your request
6th level BS
Starting ability scores (rolled 1 point better than average) = 16, 15, 13, 12, 10, 9 + High Elf, + ASI = 9, 18, 13, 18, 12, 10
For estimating resources, day is 2 encounters, short rest, 2 encounters, short rest, 2 encounters, long rest
Mage Armor at start of day = 17 AC
Bladesong = 21 AC
Blur = most attackers have Disadvantage
Shield if needed = 26 AC
Depending on encounter, Shield of Faith and/or Warding Bond (it varies which is better, and both is an option) = 22 AC + resistance, or 23 AC, or 24 AC + resistance
A few encounters doesn't explore even the existed state for such a large variability, which is why your play examples are largely meaningless. And, yes, you did get lucky as the pdf indicates that over 8 rounds you'll be hit 3 times 17% of the time. That's nearly 1:5.
And you didn't answer the request: give me the AC, the opponent attack bonus, and the number of times you're attacked and I'll give you the pdf. This goes for your play examples as well, so you can use what happened in play and find out if it was likely or not to happen that way again.