Mercurius
Legend
Yes, all good thoughts. I didn't forget the "media blitz," although I guess I probably should have mentioned it in the "rise of 5E" part as a major factor. I wasn't as much describing the factors involved, just the phenomena. But I imagine the single biggest media influence has been Stranger Things, which probably brought in new, young fans, and also some older folks bit by the nostalgia bug.Don't forget the media blitz that has been going on since around 4E. We've had D&D show up in The Sarah Connor Chronicles, Big Bang Theory, Dexter's Laboratory, Stranger Things, Community, and a host of other TV shows and other media, as well as the rise of Critical Role and other "entertainment RPG shows" throwing a lot of light on the game and drawing both old and new to check out the game.
The pandemic has also helped a lot; people suddenly finding a lot of time on their hands and the likes of VTT's, Discord and other platforms making remote play possible.
As for where the game is going, WotC has suddenly found itself with a very large and diverse crowd; they started with a bit of a "hardcore" carryover (those who'd stuck out 4E, and some returns from 3E/Pathfinder), but a large chunk of their demographic wasn't even old enough to play in 3E days and they want something that fits with the fantasy they've grown up with - the LotR movies (and likely moreso the Hobbit), Harry Potter, Percy Jackson, Game of Thrones, various animes and the like. The carry-over from 1E/2E/BX/BECM is a smaller and smaller crowd, and the cry for carrying over old content is probably being replaced with calls for new content to bring the game into the 21st century.
Expect to see D&D revisions designed to make it "easier" to get on board and quicker to play at the table. We'll see some more nostalgia throwbacks/easter eggs to keep the old timers buying (and pique the interest of newbies who are curious what was so "good" about that stuff), but I believe we will see a rise in new, never-before-seen content as the designers align the game to modern media.[/I]
I think you're probably generally correct on the last two paragraphs. I think a key point is that even though "old-timers" represent a diminishing percentage of the total fan-base, they still have substantial buying power. If we take the demographics for the 50 million estimate, probably about 15% are carryovers from pre-3E eras (most of the 13% of 40+ and some of the 18% of 35-39 group, minus a few older folks who only just started playing).
Another factor is simply WotC making good use of their creative legacy--not to preserve tradition for traditions sake, but because it would be wasteful not to. I mean, think of that fertile period of the late 80s to mid-90s in terms of settings: Spelljammer, Dark Sun, Planescape, and Birthright all came out in a pretty short period of time.
So it isn't simply a matter of "old people like old stuff, and new people like new stuff." But it may mean that older stuff will be re-calibrated for a newer, younger demographic, at least to some extent. As much as the "setting purist" in me dislikes the idea of dragonborn in Athas, that might be inevitable (actually, they'd probably fit in quite well, although might need to be re-skinned a bit, so as not to dilute the coolness of the Athas dragons; tieflings seem a bit more incongruous with the setting, though).
Or with Planescape, I imagine the very Gen X 90s aesthetic will be ironed out a bit (to be honest, I hope so!), and Dragonlance art will likely do away with mullets and perms (someone will need to talk to Elmore and Easley). And, of course, WotC will almost certainly continue to offer narrative pathways that don't always involve solving everything through violence, and we'll probably never see Tika's boobs again, unless WotC starts an OnlyFans for her.
But I think, all joking aside, most of these worlds will continue to live within the D&D canon, and some of them will be actively nourished, even if in a somewhat different presentation. This will make some old-timers grouchy, but I think they'll be a minority.