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4 Hours w/ RSD - Escapist Bonus Column
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<blockquote data-quote="Alphastream" data-source="post: 7647874" data-attributes="member: 11365"><p>I wrote to Ryan back <a href="http://www.enworld.org/forum/news/315800-4-hours-w-rsd-escapist-bonus-column-5.html#post5762938" target="_blank">here, asking questions about some of the first half</a> of his post. I wanted to ask questions about the second half, should he have the time to respond.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Was that an increase to the industry, or to Wizards, or to both? Are there any available numbers on this, and is it possible to separate out the "boom that will be a bust" from revenue that would hang on after the bust? </p><p></p><p></p><p>I love that aspect of the OGL! </p><p></p><p></p><p>You mention that the change from 3.0 to 3.5 really drove the bust. Was it inevitable, just due to the volume? I recall seeing shelves full of d20 adventures, and the ratings for them were abysmal (though they were priced really low). Were the sales really high enough that this was a true loss for the stores rather than making the reality of dead inventory due to no quality control clear?</p><p></p><p>Did this really set things up for MMOs to then drive the market downward? I recall Warcraft as being pretty big during some of the most successful years of Living Greyhawk organized play. While I know a few people that played less D&D during that time, I know more that joined the RPGA during that time. The social network seemed really strong (as did that for other non-living games at that time) - local conventions were doing really well. I may just be myopic here, though I did have a pretty good handle on the RPGA due to my heavy travel and con attendance, that's all I was really seeing.</p><p></p><p></p><p>I'm really curious about the age effect. During the 90's and 00's it felt like almost no new gamers were coming into the field. But I wonder if that had to do with how uncool gaming was and how little there was to bring young players over to the game. When growing up we had the cartoons, the action figures, the comics, the choose-your-own-adventure books, the prominent displays in toy and book stores, kids playing in the movie ET... was the issue MMOs or just that there were no vehicles to attract the young?</p><p></p><p>In contrast to the 90's and 00's, I've seen many more young gamers join in the last three years and many say this is the era where geek is cool. Most Encounters DMs have a story of a parent bringing in a young kid (I saw at least seven in my first two seasons of Encounters, with two becoming being regular players). I saw many young teenagers at PAX Prime this and last year. I see more young players at LFR conventions. I see a lot of young gamers at Gen Con the last two years. I see gaming stores catering to the young with Pokemon games and then transitioning them to other games as well. Stores in Seattle bring in buses of school kids and in Portland they have D&D Summer and Winter Camps. Do you see this increase as well? How large <u>is</u> the drain from MMOs? </p><p></p><p></p><p>But they are also hiring and added designers. Have they really decreased in size over the last few years?</p><p></p><p></p><p>I'm very worried about that possibility. How do we keep gamers buying? The industry still publishes a core book then sees declining sales because some gamers are done buying. Even when we have a single version, and even if we have a single world, that problem exists (we see it for non-D&D RPGS that have a single version and world... I own Fiasco, but I don't own the Fiasco Companion, nor the Dresden Files playset). And how do we get players to be active? The gamer with a WoW account and paying for IMAX movie tickets thinks DDI or KQ or PF subscriptions arn't worth their money (if they even know these subscriptions exist). </p><p></p><p>How do we change the underlying model without making gamers rebel with vitriol at the slightest thought their game will be turned into an MMO/board game, etc.?</p><p></p><p></p><p>Is this comparable? I would have thought that MMOs are a different activity. I might play RPGs one day, go fishing the next, but they aren't comparable. When I play VTTs I don't feel like this is at all similar to playing a video game/MMO. A great VTT would not make me give up video games. Now, I'm not a huge VTT fan. I've played around 60 games on VTTs in the last two years, but only when I can't play face-to-face. I really don't find VTT a great place for D&D, except when it is my only option. While I like the features of the DDI VTT or MapTool over OpenRPG, the features/platform don't really drive whether I use a VTT. I use a VTT when I can't find a local game, or to supplement local gaming / catch up on LFR. </p><p></p><p>Has there been any market research into this, to see whether VTTs really are important? Wizards put a lot of work into theirs, likely sacrificing their own progress on other DDI elements, and it isn't clear to me whether that was a good choice or not. I simply have no indicator one way or the other, other than many people unhappy about not getting better Adventure Tools.</p><p></p><p>I do agree with your assessment that iPad-style gaming tools can be huge. The number of players with laptops, netbooks, and now iPads is pretty huge. I do wonder how this contributes revenue. DDI subscriptions are one way. But it seems to be a ways off before someone really finds the way to link things. Part of the problem is very few RPG companies can afford to experiment here. </p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't disagree, but I do note that the out of game time for Magic the Gathering is a big part of its success. A big part of the addictive purchasing is the lotto mentality when you open a booster, plus the validation feelings as you construct a deck. Non-gaming time ends up being revenue boosting. </p><p></p><p>I think this happens to some extent with D&D beyond 2E. As PCs become more complex, many players spend a lot of time creating characters. For some, optimization is its own game. They devour content so as to create increasingly interesting/optimal PCs. Those new feats have some of that addictive revenue-boosting behavior. There might be something here, especially if it could be easier to provide content in more on-demand ways and structure the game accordingly. </p><p></p><p>For example, a typical season of Encounters starts with giving a new player a pregen PC and a log sheet. They can keep playing and never purchase anything (maybe dice), but the bottom of the log sheet has a Renown tracker and it gives you points if you make your own PC, and probably some if the PC comes from the latest book. That's excellent. But, now the player need not do anything for the next 10-15 weeks. Ideally, there would be ways to encourage revenue, such as by selecting options as they level or rewards as they vanquish foes, and these would be from newer material than when they started (or even older material). With micro-transactions it could really be useful. You get to make your PC into a swordmage after meeting the NPC that can retrain you. If you want to do so, here's the web code to buy just the swordmage class on DDI. (Or, in PFS, to get the info for just the pirate class, etc.). </p><p></p><p></p><p>I agree we will see more here. I'm not sure it is what RPGs will look like in the near future. Part of it is that designers seem unwilling to go down this path. No one at Wizards or Paizo seems to want to substantially tinker with the basis of the RPG. But part of it is for the logical reason that consumers really don't seem to want that. I have met tons of gamers that love Ravenloft, Ashardalon, and Drizzt board games, but none of those gamers is going to play those and give up playing the D&D RPG. Similarly, while the LEGO Heroica series is great for kids, it lacks staying power. Rather, these board games seem to be a good way to expand the base, expand the brand's reach, and possible bring in a few players (but according to Wizards' designers acquisition was not the goal). </p><p></p><p></p><p>Forgive me, but that's what a Paizo employee <u>should</u> feel! Could we not argue that the OGL has made it impossible for D&D to move forward and leave old versions behind? If the game needs to change in design, needs to be innovative to compete, and must attract new gamers, then doesn't it have to move forward? </p><p></p><p>At some point Pathfinder has to get a new version, as does D&D. When we have PF2.0 and D&D 5.0, doesn't the OGL hurt that effort? Doesn't the OGL cause a lot of the fraying?</p><p></p><p>Would 4E have not been a continually massive success if the OGL had not existed? Sure, we can all agree there have been massive blunders, but that is true of every edition. And we can look at the posts from when 3.0 came out (or letters to the editor in Dragon for 2.0) to see the same vitriol thrown at 3.0 as was thrown at 4.0, yet 4E had an even more successful start. Was the difference the OGL, allowing a large base to discount the new game and stay with what they already had? Is that really good for the RPG industry, or just good for the main company that (very smartly and capably) won the OGL business? </p><p></p><p></p><p>Wait, but hasn't it been on par with Pathfinder on sales (mostly tied or higher, sometimes lower)? Is that not enough to be commercially successful? </p><p></p><p></p><p>I share that sentiment, and I know you want a strong overall RPG market, but to be honest what you wrote was that the lifeboat was just Pathfinder now. What role does Wizards play for Paizo? Why does Paizo need Wizards to be a strong brand?</p><p></p><p>I'm also not clear on when/whether D&D became a weak brand? The industry may have contracted (perhaps due to the d20 bust), MMOs may be part of the reason, and gamers may or may not be aging, but do we know that Wizards is weak outside of having a strong competitor in Paizo?</p><p></p><p>Thanks again for your post, and I look forward to the next one!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Alphastream, post: 7647874, member: 11365"] I wrote to Ryan back [URL="http://www.enworld.org/forum/news/315800-4-hours-w-rsd-escapist-bonus-column-5.html#post5762938"]here, asking questions about some of the first half[/URL] of his post. I wanted to ask questions about the second half, should he have the time to respond. Was that an increase to the industry, or to Wizards, or to both? Are there any available numbers on this, and is it possible to separate out the "boom that will be a bust" from revenue that would hang on after the bust? I love that aspect of the OGL! You mention that the change from 3.0 to 3.5 really drove the bust. Was it inevitable, just due to the volume? I recall seeing shelves full of d20 adventures, and the ratings for them were abysmal (though they were priced really low). Were the sales really high enough that this was a true loss for the stores rather than making the reality of dead inventory due to no quality control clear? Did this really set things up for MMOs to then drive the market downward? I recall Warcraft as being pretty big during some of the most successful years of Living Greyhawk organized play. While I know a few people that played less D&D during that time, I know more that joined the RPGA during that time. The social network seemed really strong (as did that for other non-living games at that time) - local conventions were doing really well. I may just be myopic here, though I did have a pretty good handle on the RPGA due to my heavy travel and con attendance, that's all I was really seeing. I'm really curious about the age effect. During the 90's and 00's it felt like almost no new gamers were coming into the field. But I wonder if that had to do with how uncool gaming was and how little there was to bring young players over to the game. When growing up we had the cartoons, the action figures, the comics, the choose-your-own-adventure books, the prominent displays in toy and book stores, kids playing in the movie ET... was the issue MMOs or just that there were no vehicles to attract the young? In contrast to the 90's and 00's, I've seen many more young gamers join in the last three years and many say this is the era where geek is cool. Most Encounters DMs have a story of a parent bringing in a young kid (I saw at least seven in my first two seasons of Encounters, with two becoming being regular players). I saw many young teenagers at PAX Prime this and last year. I see more young players at LFR conventions. I see a lot of young gamers at Gen Con the last two years. I see gaming stores catering to the young with Pokemon games and then transitioning them to other games as well. Stores in Seattle bring in buses of school kids and in Portland they have D&D Summer and Winter Camps. Do you see this increase as well? How large [U]is[/U] the drain from MMOs? But they are also hiring and added designers. Have they really decreased in size over the last few years? I'm very worried about that possibility. How do we keep gamers buying? The industry still publishes a core book then sees declining sales because some gamers are done buying. Even when we have a single version, and even if we have a single world, that problem exists (we see it for non-D&D RPGS that have a single version and world... I own Fiasco, but I don't own the Fiasco Companion, nor the Dresden Files playset). And how do we get players to be active? The gamer with a WoW account and paying for IMAX movie tickets thinks DDI or KQ or PF subscriptions arn't worth their money (if they even know these subscriptions exist). How do we change the underlying model without making gamers rebel with vitriol at the slightest thought their game will be turned into an MMO/board game, etc.? Is this comparable? I would have thought that MMOs are a different activity. I might play RPGs one day, go fishing the next, but they aren't comparable. When I play VTTs I don't feel like this is at all similar to playing a video game/MMO. A great VTT would not make me give up video games. Now, I'm not a huge VTT fan. I've played around 60 games on VTTs in the last two years, but only when I can't play face-to-face. I really don't find VTT a great place for D&D, except when it is my only option. While I like the features of the DDI VTT or MapTool over OpenRPG, the features/platform don't really drive whether I use a VTT. I use a VTT when I can't find a local game, or to supplement local gaming / catch up on LFR. Has there been any market research into this, to see whether VTTs really are important? Wizards put a lot of work into theirs, likely sacrificing their own progress on other DDI elements, and it isn't clear to me whether that was a good choice or not. I simply have no indicator one way or the other, other than many people unhappy about not getting better Adventure Tools. I do agree with your assessment that iPad-style gaming tools can be huge. The number of players with laptops, netbooks, and now iPads is pretty huge. I do wonder how this contributes revenue. DDI subscriptions are one way. But it seems to be a ways off before someone really finds the way to link things. Part of the problem is very few RPG companies can afford to experiment here. I don't disagree, but I do note that the out of game time for Magic the Gathering is a big part of its success. A big part of the addictive purchasing is the lotto mentality when you open a booster, plus the validation feelings as you construct a deck. Non-gaming time ends up being revenue boosting. I think this happens to some extent with D&D beyond 2E. As PCs become more complex, many players spend a lot of time creating characters. For some, optimization is its own game. They devour content so as to create increasingly interesting/optimal PCs. Those new feats have some of that addictive revenue-boosting behavior. There might be something here, especially if it could be easier to provide content in more on-demand ways and structure the game accordingly. For example, a typical season of Encounters starts with giving a new player a pregen PC and a log sheet. They can keep playing and never purchase anything (maybe dice), but the bottom of the log sheet has a Renown tracker and it gives you points if you make your own PC, and probably some if the PC comes from the latest book. That's excellent. But, now the player need not do anything for the next 10-15 weeks. Ideally, there would be ways to encourage revenue, such as by selecting options as they level or rewards as they vanquish foes, and these would be from newer material than when they started (or even older material). With micro-transactions it could really be useful. You get to make your PC into a swordmage after meeting the NPC that can retrain you. If you want to do so, here's the web code to buy just the swordmage class on DDI. (Or, in PFS, to get the info for just the pirate class, etc.). I agree we will see more here. I'm not sure it is what RPGs will look like in the near future. Part of it is that designers seem unwilling to go down this path. No one at Wizards or Paizo seems to want to substantially tinker with the basis of the RPG. But part of it is for the logical reason that consumers really don't seem to want that. I have met tons of gamers that love Ravenloft, Ashardalon, and Drizzt board games, but none of those gamers is going to play those and give up playing the D&D RPG. Similarly, while the LEGO Heroica series is great for kids, it lacks staying power. Rather, these board games seem to be a good way to expand the base, expand the brand's reach, and possible bring in a few players (but according to Wizards' designers acquisition was not the goal). Forgive me, but that's what a Paizo employee [U]should[/U] feel! Could we not argue that the OGL has made it impossible for D&D to move forward and leave old versions behind? If the game needs to change in design, needs to be innovative to compete, and must attract new gamers, then doesn't it have to move forward? At some point Pathfinder has to get a new version, as does D&D. When we have PF2.0 and D&D 5.0, doesn't the OGL hurt that effort? Doesn't the OGL cause a lot of the fraying? Would 4E have not been a continually massive success if the OGL had not existed? Sure, we can all agree there have been massive blunders, but that is true of every edition. And we can look at the posts from when 3.0 came out (or letters to the editor in Dragon for 2.0) to see the same vitriol thrown at 3.0 as was thrown at 4.0, yet 4E had an even more successful start. Was the difference the OGL, allowing a large base to discount the new game and stay with what they already had? Is that really good for the RPG industry, or just good for the main company that (very smartly and capably) won the OGL business? Wait, but hasn't it been on par with Pathfinder on sales (mostly tied or higher, sometimes lower)? Is that not enough to be commercially successful? I share that sentiment, and I know you want a strong overall RPG market, but to be honest what you wrote was that the lifeboat was just Pathfinder now. What role does Wizards play for Paizo? Why does Paizo need Wizards to be a strong brand? I'm also not clear on when/whether D&D became a weak brand? The industry may have contracted (perhaps due to the d20 bust), MMOs may be part of the reason, and gamers may or may not be aging, but do we know that Wizards is weak outside of having a strong competitor in Paizo? Thanks again for your post, and I look forward to the next one! [/QUOTE]
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