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5E's "Missed Opportunities?"
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<blockquote data-quote="clearstream" data-source="post: 7515374" data-attributes="member: 71699"><p>Someone probably expanded on this already, but in case not here is a quick outline:</p><p></p><p>There are 20 outcomes on each die, thus 400 outcomes when your roll two of them (20*20=400).</p><p>Say I would hit on a 16, 17, 18, 19 or 20? With advantage <u>both</u> dice must come up 1-15 for me to miss, so I just multiply them together. There are 15*15=225 ways for me to miss.</p><p>I went from a 75% chance to miss (15/20) to a 56.5% chance to miss (225/400). That is about a +4.</p><p></p><p>Say I would hit on everything but a 1? With advantage both dice must come up 1 for me to miss. There is only 1*1=1 way for me to miss.</p><p>I went from a 5% chance to miss, to a 0.25% to miss. This needs some slightly different language because in one sense, it is about +1, but in another sense it pushes the chance of seeing a miss out to perhaps once a year (assuming a session a week and eight rolls with advantage per session) or less!</p><p></p><p>+5 is where I land when I have advantage on something that is exactly 50/50 (11+) and then it slopes out toward +1 as you can see.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="clearstream, post: 7515374, member: 71699"] Someone probably expanded on this already, but in case not here is a quick outline: There are 20 outcomes on each die, thus 400 outcomes when your roll two of them (20*20=400). Say I would hit on a 16, 17, 18, 19 or 20? With advantage [U]both[/U] dice must come up 1-15 for me to miss, so I just multiply them together. There are 15*15=225 ways for me to miss. I went from a 75% chance to miss (15/20) to a 56.5% chance to miss (225/400). That is about a +4. Say I would hit on everything but a 1? With advantage both dice must come up 1 for me to miss. There is only 1*1=1 way for me to miss. I went from a 5% chance to miss, to a 0.25% to miss. This needs some slightly different language because in one sense, it is about +1, but in another sense it pushes the chance of seeing a miss out to perhaps once a year (assuming a session a week and eight rolls with advantage per session) or less! +5 is where I land when I have advantage on something that is exactly 50/50 (11+) and then it slopes out toward +1 as you can see. [/QUOTE]
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