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As of 1998, 4,007,685 people played AD&D in the US, as estimated by Ben Riggs.
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<blockquote data-quote="EzekielRaiden" data-source="post: 8708864" data-attributes="member: 6790260"><p>Sure. I'm saying, without knowing their data or method for determining this, these look like Fermi estimates. You cannot make a direct size comparison between two different Fermi estimates. Their magnitude is, in fact, exactly the thing being left open. These numbers are accurate, in a certain technical sense, to <em>zero </em>significant figures, while avoiding being useless.</p><p></p><p>It would be like making a Fermi estimate of the number of piano tuners in Chicago, which could be ten times too small or too large, and also separately making a Fermi estimate of the carpenters in Chicago, which could be ten times too small or too large, and trying to conclude from your estimate of there being 1246 piano tuners and only 105 carpenters that piano tuning is a massively more popular career than carpentry. You don't know that! It could be anything between a hundredfold increase (~11000 piano tuners vs ~11 carpenters), or no increase at all (~1100 piano tuners, ~1100 carpenters), or exactly the <em>reverse</em> conclusion (~110 piano tuners, ~1100 carpenters), or <em>anything</em> in between.</p><p></p><p>That is, in this case, this Fermi estimate of the late 90s player count would be perfectly consistent with 40 million players. And, if it is also a Fermi estimate, the 2020 number would be consistent with there being only 5 million players, a <em>drop</em> of about 88%. But it would also be consistent with there having been only 400,000 players in 1998 and <strong>500</strong> million players in 2020, meaning a thousandfold increase.</p><p></p><p>That's why you cannot do the comparison that that graph entails. Because it illustrates a relationship which only holds if the values are reasonably precise. These values are not precise, at all, they are (at least for the 4 million figure, and likely the 50 mil as well) useful but extremely loose estimates. The error bars on that graph should be in the stratosphere because of how wide the range of validity is.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="EzekielRaiden, post: 8708864, member: 6790260"] Sure. I'm saying, without knowing their data or method for determining this, these look like Fermi estimates. You cannot make a direct size comparison between two different Fermi estimates. Their magnitude is, in fact, exactly the thing being left open. These numbers are accurate, in a certain technical sense, to [I]zero [/I]significant figures, while avoiding being useless. It would be like making a Fermi estimate of the number of piano tuners in Chicago, which could be ten times too small or too large, and also separately making a Fermi estimate of the carpenters in Chicago, which could be ten times too small or too large, and trying to conclude from your estimate of there being 1246 piano tuners and only 105 carpenters that piano tuning is a massively more popular career than carpentry. You don't know that! It could be anything between a hundredfold increase (~11000 piano tuners vs ~11 carpenters), or no increase at all (~1100 piano tuners, ~1100 carpenters), or exactly the [I]reverse[/I] conclusion (~110 piano tuners, ~1100 carpenters), or [I]anything[/I] in between. That is, in this case, this Fermi estimate of the late 90s player count would be perfectly consistent with 40 million players. And, if it is also a Fermi estimate, the 2020 number would be consistent with there being only 5 million players, a [I]drop[/I] of about 88%. But it would also be consistent with there having been only 400,000 players in 1998 and [B]500[/B] million players in 2020, meaning a thousandfold increase. That's why you cannot do the comparison that that graph entails. Because it illustrates a relationship which only holds if the values are reasonably precise. These values are not precise, at all, they are (at least for the 4 million figure, and likely the 50 mil as well) useful but extremely loose estimates. The error bars on that graph should be in the stratosphere because of how wide the range of validity is. [/QUOTE]
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Community
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As of 1998, 4,007,685 people played AD&D in the US, as estimated by Ben Riggs.
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