At which point does the public's knowledge change the industry?

[tylermalan]

Ok so, I've been in Iraq for a few months, and thereby not playing D&D (or really anything for that matter) recently, and I haven't been keeping up with the news. I just read all of the 4E news though, and started thinking about the state of the industry.

So, as per the title of this thread, at which point does knowledge of where the industry is going actually change the industry?

It seems to me that though the public doesn't know anything about 4E for sure, they PROBABLY do. There are so many insiders in the gaming community, so many ex-employees of WOTC, so much insight into the EXACT way this entire industry works that the only things kept secret anymore are specific release dates. I understand those dates might have a large bearing on marketing decisions and so forth, but come on - EVERYTHING else is practically known already.

What I mean is this: let's say the most popular rumor regarding 4E is actually correct. Most people that play the game know of it, and believe it. Then let's say that this rumor is one that discredits WOTC or Hasbro - like that they will attempt to squeeze the game for what it's worth in the next 5 years and then drop it (which discredits them by making them seem like they don't care, like they don't even like the game, like they're just another example of money-grubbing corporate America). The fact that most people know and believe this rumor probably means that if 4E comes out as expected, NO ONE will buy into it. Which would, it seems to me, make following the current plan a bad idea on the part of WOTC or Hasbro.

As small as the hobby might be, it seems rather large to me still, and I would think WOTC would rather hire us all on as consultants than to have us all know their plans before they've hatched and quit buying their products. No?

 

[Victim]

It seems to me that though the public doesn't know anything about 4E for sure, they PROBABLY do. There are so many insiders in the gaming community, so many ex-employees of WOTC, so much insight into the EXACT way this entire industry works that the only things kept secret anymore are specific release dates. I understand those dates might have a large bearing on marketing decisions and so forth, but come on - EVERYTHING else is practically known already.
?

I strongly disagree. The business side of most RPG companies is almost completely opaque. Try to find sales data besides Amazon's rankings, for instance.

 

[Varianor Abroad]

I think plans are in motion long before genuine news (as opposed to rumor) hits the message board gamer's radar screen.

 

[tylermalan]

To Victim - Can you think of anything besides data though, which a lot of gamers don't care about? My decision to buy or not buy 4E has nothing to do with sales data. But it DOES have to do with my impression of the company producing the product.

To Varianor - But that's what I'm saying - the plans are in motion way in advance, but at what point does the public's opinion of those plans actually make the business CHANGE those plans?

 

[Varianor Abroad]

What evidence (other than anecdote) exists to sugges that those plans change due to public opinion? Other than the cover color of DMG II changing back to blue?

 

[jmucchiello]

What I mean is this: let's say the most popular rumor regarding 4E is actually correct. Most people that play the game know of it, and believe it.

You lost me here. Maybe a lot of people who play and also hit the RPG website have heard the rumors. But even among that set, most do not believe any one specific rumor. And when you consider there are probably 100-500x more people who play and do not read Internet websites about D&D as people who do read them, then most people who play the game haven't the slightest opinion about any rumors one way or the other. If you asked most D&D players about their thoughts on 4e, they'd say who's ed and why are there four of them? In fact I'd bet those who read it would say, "There's nothing about 4e in Dragon magazine so it must not be really happening."

All I'm saying is don't mistake hand-waving freak-outery on Internet websites for how the common person feels about anything.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

All I'm saying is don't mistake hand-waving freak-outery on Internet websites for how the common person feels about anything.

That's an excellent point. I think the recent example of Snakes On A Plane shows it doesn't always pay to put a lot of stock in what the internet buzz is saying about something. Sure, SoaP made money, but fell well short of expectations. Given the excitement on the net about it, and with much of that excitement generated by internet communities in the first place, one might've expected it to be a huge blockbuster. It wasn't. Non-internet word-of-mouth and lack of pre-release reviews of it seem to have been more important to what happened with it.

The internet isn't a very reliable barometer of what people are thinking in general. This will likely change as time goes by and the internet becomes more pervasive in the average person's life, but it hasn't reached that point yet.

 

[tylermalan]

Ok, well, first, I'm not saying that those plans have changed - I'm asking for the point at which they do.

Secondly, I didn't say that the rumor came from the internet, all I said was that it was the most popular and most people that play believe it. This is just a hypothetical situation! Assume that most of the people that play D&D - regardless of whether or not they peruse forums on the internet - believe this rumor, and assume that this rumor puts WOTC in a negative light.

Now, since most of the rumors DO originate on the internet, I understand that it would take way more people to actually regularly USE the internet for it to have an effect. But with how fast WOTC shot down Eric Noah's assumptions about 4E, I would imagine WOTC believes that the internet community is large enough to make a difference.