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Can you have out of body experiences?
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<blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 6275249" data-attributes="member: 177"><p>There's this thing about numbers. Consider how many things we'd say are a one-in-a-million chance (say, of having a dream that is almost exactly what happens the next day). Now, remember that there are 300 million Americans. And 365 nights a year for them to have dreams. So, there's lots and lots of chances for those low-probability events to happen. It turns out, then, that one-in-a-million events should be (and are) happening all the time! We can expect three hundred one-in-a-million dreams every night, and thus nearly 110,000 of them every year, in the USA alone!</p><p></p><p>And, with modern communication, we hear about them! But we forget how many of those one-in-a-million things *didn't* happen, because we don't hear about them. So, we give a lot of credit to the things we do hear about - and that's a form of confirmation bias - giving great weight to the events that happen to confirm our suspicions, and meanwhile ignoring how just shy of 300 million people had perfectly normal days.</p><p></p><p>The measure isn't whether it happens at all - we should expect thousands of weirdly coincidental things happening in the country each day - but whether it happens with a frequency greater than that which can be explained by just random chance.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umbran, post: 6275249, member: 177"] There's this thing about numbers. Consider how many things we'd say are a one-in-a-million chance (say, of having a dream that is almost exactly what happens the next day). Now, remember that there are 300 million Americans. And 365 nights a year for them to have dreams. So, there's lots and lots of chances for those low-probability events to happen. It turns out, then, that one-in-a-million events should be (and are) happening all the time! We can expect three hundred one-in-a-million dreams every night, and thus nearly 110,000 of them every year, in the USA alone! And, with modern communication, we hear about them! But we forget how many of those one-in-a-million things *didn't* happen, because we don't hear about them. So, we give a lot of credit to the things we do hear about - and that's a form of confirmation bias - giving great weight to the events that happen to confirm our suspicions, and meanwhile ignoring how just shy of 300 million people had perfectly normal days. The measure isn't whether it happens at all - we should expect thousands of weirdly coincidental things happening in the country each day - but whether it happens with a frequency greater than that which can be explained by just random chance. [/QUOTE]
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