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<blockquote data-quote="Umbran" data-source="post: 6658358" data-attributes="member: 177"><p>Of course not. It is only a gauge. The idea that defensive gun use leads to the death of the felon <em>only one time ten thousand</em> does not sound credible. Thus, 250 or so deaths is not consistent with 2.5 million uses. Even with my numbers, the rate is something like one-third of one percent of all defensive uses end in the death of a felon.</p><p></p><p>It would be interesting to see how many of them end in the death of the defender.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>By the numbers I've already presented, the low end is no higher than about 68,000, two-thirds of what you suggest there. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>That assumes that the firearm-homicide rate and the non-firearm homicide rates are independent. I am not convinced that is a safe assumption. You'd have to provide some support for that before it can be a major part of an analysis.</p><p></p><p>In both countries, "violent crime" does not include homicides. Violent crime rates are typically gotten from survey data, as many crimes are not reported to police. Victims of homicide, however, rarely respond to surveys <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /></p><p></p><p>In 2010, the NCVS had the US violent crime rate at 10.8 per 100,000, about a 1.15 chance of a person being the victim of a violent crime.</p><p>The British Crime Survey had the rate in Britain and Wales at 3.1%! Wow! Lots of gun control, but more violent crime! </p><p></p><p>But, the homicide rates are different:</p><p>There were 622 homicides in England and Wales in 2010. With a population about 55 million, that makes the rate one in 88,000</p><p>There were 14,022 homicides in the US in that same year. With a population of 308 million, on in 22,000, four times higher.</p><p></p><p>11,101 of those homicides were committed with firearms. That's one in 28,000 or so. Our firearms homicide rate alone is higher than their total homicide rate.</p><p></p><p>A couple things we could say that are consistent with the data:</p><p>We could say, "People in England and wales like to beat each other up, but they *don't* kill each other," This may be a cultural difference, meaning that you really cannot compare across countries at all.</p><p></p><p>Or, we could say, "Yes, guns seem to deter violent crime. However, they *enhance* homicide." If so, I am not sure it is necessarily a win for us.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umbran, post: 6658358, member: 177"] Of course not. It is only a gauge. The idea that defensive gun use leads to the death of the felon [i]only one time ten thousand[/i] does not sound credible. Thus, 250 or so deaths is not consistent with 2.5 million uses. Even with my numbers, the rate is something like one-third of one percent of all defensive uses end in the death of a felon. It would be interesting to see how many of them end in the death of the defender. By the numbers I've already presented, the low end is no higher than about 68,000, two-thirds of what you suggest there. That assumes that the firearm-homicide rate and the non-firearm homicide rates are independent. I am not convinced that is a safe assumption. You'd have to provide some support for that before it can be a major part of an analysis. In both countries, "violent crime" does not include homicides. Violent crime rates are typically gotten from survey data, as many crimes are not reported to police. Victims of homicide, however, rarely respond to surveys :) In 2010, the NCVS had the US violent crime rate at 10.8 per 100,000, about a 1.15 chance of a person being the victim of a violent crime. The British Crime Survey had the rate in Britain and Wales at 3.1%! Wow! Lots of gun control, but more violent crime! But, the homicide rates are different: There were 622 homicides in England and Wales in 2010. With a population about 55 million, that makes the rate one in 88,000 There were 14,022 homicides in the US in that same year. With a population of 308 million, on in 22,000, four times higher. 11,101 of those homicides were committed with firearms. That's one in 28,000 or so. Our firearms homicide rate alone is higher than their total homicide rate. A couple things we could say that are consistent with the data: We could say, "People in England and wales like to beat each other up, but they *don't* kill each other," This may be a cultural difference, meaning that you really cannot compare across countries at all. Or, we could say, "Yes, guns seem to deter violent crime. However, they *enhance* homicide." If so, I am not sure it is necessarily a win for us. [/QUOTE]
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