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General Tabletop Discussion
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Cost/Benefit Analysis of True Strike
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<blockquote data-quote="Celebrim" data-source="post: 6439976" data-attributes="member: 4937"><p>There are plenty of formulas used to calculate the value of time. The hard part will be getting a reasonable approximation of the deflation rate for damage in a general case. But I think as a logical exercise, you could pick a fairly reasonable number - say 10%. That is, doing 6 damage on 4 successive rounds (24 damage total) is probably more valuable than doing 35 on the fourth only. There are of course counter examples - it's a single PC versus a single monster with 34 hit points. But for every such extreme case, we could come up with examples on the opposite extreme - a single PC versus 4 6 hit point foes. </p><p></p><p>In any event, while I love the analysis, the point is that if it is a close thing, you should never cast true strike. Take the case casting attack cantrips at a disadvantage. fuindordm concludes in this case: "It's worth casting True Strike, but you shouldn't expect a huge difference in the outcome." But because you don't expect a huge difference in outcome, you shouldn't cast True Strike. Not just because the value of X damage now is greater than the value of X damage in round n + 1, but because we can't necessarily be sure that the situation that grants us disadvantage will persist. If we expect no hugely favorable improvement in the outcome, we certainly shouldn't delay.</p><p></p><p>The only time I can see it being useful (if it isn't free) is if we are preparing to cast a very costly spell and its early in the fight.</p><p></p><p>For example, suppose we are prepared to spend Chromatic Orb as a third level spell doing 5d8 damage, and we hit on an 11+. If we cast firebolt now, we may do 2d10 damage with, hitting on an 11+, for an average of 5.5 damage, then the orb next round for 11.25 more for a total of 16.75 expected. Or we can cast True Strike now, then the orb next round for 16.875 expected damage. This is a slight improvement but hardly enough to justify delaying, and I'd guess the delay strategy would be less effectual in the long run over the course of many encounters. And note that if we were only setting up a 1st level Orb, it wouldn't be worth it. But if we perhaps had prepared some 3rd level single target spell that did 8d6 damage on a hit, then we could probably justify the delay to give us the best chance of hitting.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Celebrim, post: 6439976, member: 4937"] There are plenty of formulas used to calculate the value of time. The hard part will be getting a reasonable approximation of the deflation rate for damage in a general case. But I think as a logical exercise, you could pick a fairly reasonable number - say 10%. That is, doing 6 damage on 4 successive rounds (24 damage total) is probably more valuable than doing 35 on the fourth only. There are of course counter examples - it's a single PC versus a single monster with 34 hit points. But for every such extreme case, we could come up with examples on the opposite extreme - a single PC versus 4 6 hit point foes. In any event, while I love the analysis, the point is that if it is a close thing, you should never cast true strike. Take the case casting attack cantrips at a disadvantage. fuindordm concludes in this case: "It's worth casting True Strike, but you shouldn't expect a huge difference in the outcome." But because you don't expect a huge difference in outcome, you shouldn't cast True Strike. Not just because the value of X damage now is greater than the value of X damage in round n + 1, but because we can't necessarily be sure that the situation that grants us disadvantage will persist. If we expect no hugely favorable improvement in the outcome, we certainly shouldn't delay. The only time I can see it being useful (if it isn't free) is if we are preparing to cast a very costly spell and its early in the fight. For example, suppose we are prepared to spend Chromatic Orb as a third level spell doing 5d8 damage, and we hit on an 11+. If we cast firebolt now, we may do 2d10 damage with, hitting on an 11+, for an average of 5.5 damage, then the orb next round for 11.25 more for a total of 16.75 expected. Or we can cast True Strike now, then the orb next round for 16.875 expected damage. This is a slight improvement but hardly enough to justify delaying, and I'd guess the delay strategy would be less effectual in the long run over the course of many encounters. And note that if we were only setting up a 1st level Orb, it wouldn't be worth it. But if we perhaps had prepared some 3rd level single target spell that did 8d6 damage on a hit, then we could probably justify the delay to give us the best chance of hitting. [/QUOTE]
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