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Critical Role Episode #26 - spoilers!
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<blockquote data-quote="Harzel" data-source="post: 7466107" data-attributes="member: 6857506"><p>Well, several things...</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Lorenzo: Matt has been pretty coy about Lorenzo's abilities, but some things he has said kinda sorta imply that Lorenzo is not a level 9 equivalent. That said, if he were level-9-Hexblade-ish, CR 3 seems a bit low. (The MM <em>Mage</em> is a 9th level spellcaster and it is CR 6.) Taking those things together, though, let's go for a lower bound and go ahead and say CR 3.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The NPC that Keg thought was a 'sorcerer', which I assume is where 'wizard' came from, actually turned out to be a bard, but that probably doesn't make any big difference. In addition to the bard, druid, and barbarian, there was also a rogue (Prado). The assumption that they were all level 5-ish seems ok, though, and CR 2 is certainly not an overestimate. So that's 4 x CR 2.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">The thugs: ok, we'll go with 2 x CR 1/2, although my suspicion is that Matt built them meaner than that.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Raw XP total: 700 + (4x450) + (2x100) = 2700.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Adjusted XP total: You neglected the number-of-opponents multiplier. Per the guidelines for 7 opponents vs. 5 PCs, the multiplier would be 2.5. Since 5 is the upper limit for 'normal' PC party size and 7 is just barely over the line between multipliers of 2 and 2.5, I suppose you could argue it down to 2. I'll do the calculation with both - so either 5400 or 6750.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Difficulty thresholds: I have no idea where the 2750 for deadly came from. From the table, for 5 5th-level PCs, I get 5x750 = 3750 for Hard and 5x1100 = 5500 for Deadly. So 5400/6750 is Just-Below-Deadly/Deadly-Plus-a-Bit.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Mitigating: It seems that most folks think that the DMG guidelines overestimate encounter difficulty at least somewhat. FWIW, this comports with my experience.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Aggravating: 3/5 of the PCs (Beau, Molly, Keg) had no ranged capability to speak of, whereas all the opponents, excepting perhaps the barbarian, did have ranged attacks. That's a significant problem, especially outdoors. Had the battle lasted longer, this likely would have become a severe disadvantage for the M9.</li> </ol><p></p><p>Overall, it seems to me that M9 had a very slim chance of beating the Iron Shepherds in a straight up combat encounter. I really think Lorenzo is probably at least CR 4, and just that adjustment takes it solidly into Deadly territory.</p><p></p><p>Matt's comments: So far, they seem a little schizophrenic. On the one hand, when talking about the Iron Shepherds, he says the are designed to be a "very dangerous group", and talked about how (in his view) he offered up hints that attacking them "could possibly be very bad". On the other hand, when talking about the actual encounter and its outcome he has more than anything else mentioned unlucky dice rolls. I guess those could possibly be consistent somehow, but for me it doesn't produce a very clear picture of his view.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Harzel, post: 7466107, member: 6857506"] Well, several things... [LIST=1] [*]Lorenzo: Matt has been pretty coy about Lorenzo's abilities, but some things he has said kinda sorta imply that Lorenzo is not a level 9 equivalent. That said, if he were level-9-Hexblade-ish, CR 3 seems a bit low. (The MM [I]Mage[/I] is a 9th level spellcaster and it is CR 6.) Taking those things together, though, let's go for a lower bound and go ahead and say CR 3. [*]The NPC that Keg thought was a 'sorcerer', which I assume is where 'wizard' came from, actually turned out to be a bard, but that probably doesn't make any big difference. In addition to the bard, druid, and barbarian, there was also a rogue (Prado). The assumption that they were all level 5-ish seems ok, though, and CR 2 is certainly not an overestimate. So that's 4 x CR 2. [*]The thugs: ok, we'll go with 2 x CR 1/2, although my suspicion is that Matt built them meaner than that. [*]Raw XP total: 700 + (4x450) + (2x100) = 2700. [*]Adjusted XP total: You neglected the number-of-opponents multiplier. Per the guidelines for 7 opponents vs. 5 PCs, the multiplier would be 2.5. Since 5 is the upper limit for 'normal' PC party size and 7 is just barely over the line between multipliers of 2 and 2.5, I suppose you could argue it down to 2. I'll do the calculation with both - so either 5400 or 6750. [*]Difficulty thresholds: I have no idea where the 2750 for deadly came from. From the table, for 5 5th-level PCs, I get 5x750 = 3750 for Hard and 5x1100 = 5500 for Deadly. So 5400/6750 is Just-Below-Deadly/Deadly-Plus-a-Bit. [*]Mitigating: It seems that most folks think that the DMG guidelines overestimate encounter difficulty at least somewhat. FWIW, this comports with my experience. [*]Aggravating: 3/5 of the PCs (Beau, Molly, Keg) had no ranged capability to speak of, whereas all the opponents, excepting perhaps the barbarian, did have ranged attacks. That's a significant problem, especially outdoors. Had the battle lasted longer, this likely would have become a severe disadvantage for the M9. [/LIST] Overall, it seems to me that M9 had a very slim chance of beating the Iron Shepherds in a straight up combat encounter. I really think Lorenzo is probably at least CR 4, and just that adjustment takes it solidly into Deadly territory. Matt's comments: So far, they seem a little schizophrenic. On the one hand, when talking about the Iron Shepherds, he says the are designed to be a "very dangerous group", and talked about how (in his view) he offered up hints that attacking them "could possibly be very bad". On the other hand, when talking about the actual encounter and its outcome he has more than anything else mentioned unlucky dice rolls. I guess those could possibly be consistent somehow, but for me it doesn't produce a very clear picture of his view. [/QUOTE]
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