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D&D and the rising pandemic
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<blockquote data-quote="NotAYakk" data-source="post: 7950404" data-attributes="member: 72555"><p>None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.</p><p></p><p>Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve. If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.</p><p></p><p>But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and <strong>half of the country isn't doing that intervention</strong>, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.</p><p></p><p>Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week <strong>delay</strong> in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.</p><p></p><p>Spain and France are in deep trouble. Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much. UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.</p><p></p><p>Of all of those places, only USA is convex <strong>up</strong> on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph. You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.</p><p></p><p>Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death". This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic</p><p></p><p>Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing. Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.</p><p></p><p>Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.</p><p></p><p>Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.</p><p></p><p>The problem with the epidemic isn't <strong>panic</strong> it is <strong>lack of panic</strong>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="NotAYakk, post: 7950404, member: 72555"] None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months. Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve. If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about. But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and [B]half of the country isn't doing that intervention[/B], then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye. Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week [B]delay[/B] in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention. Spain and France are in deep trouble. Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much. UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course. Of all of those places, only USA is convex [B]up[/B] on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph. You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph. Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death". This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing. Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days. Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic. Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA. The problem with the epidemic isn't [b]panic[/b] it is [b]lack of panic[/b]. [/QUOTE]
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