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<blockquote data-quote="Kinematics" data-source="post: 8984671" data-attributes="member: 6932123"><p>For the countries with data, that only applies to Slovakia, and it only made $138,298, so that's not a major factor in this update.</p><p></p><p>The top 5 non-US markets (with gross sales over $2 million each: China, UK, Mexico, Australia, and Germany) add up to $18,686,210, which is almost exactly half of the entire non-US sales. There's no indication that this will shift in any substantial way.</p><p></p><p>Based on initial data, and sales patterns based on first day and first weekend results, plus a middling-to-decent reception, domestic sales should land between $130 and $150 million (not counting the Mario movie as a potential spoiler). *</p><p></p><p>With domestic being a bit more than half of worldwide, worldwide sales would then be expected to be around $260 to $300 million. With a budget of $150 million, that basically puts it at the break-even point (or less; some use 2.5x instead of 2x, which would want to hit $375 million).</p><p></p><p>Yeah, $200 million domestic/$400 million worldwide would probably be needed for it to be considered solidly profitable. Seems very unlikely.</p><p></p><p>I wouldn't be optimistic about a break-even movie getting a sequel, though not being a loss (maybe) means it may still be worth continuing the series in the hopes of building an audience (given Hasbro's hopes for monetizing the brand). It depends on how much they're willing to use this as a loss-leader for building a franchise.</p><p></p><p>[spoiler=*Analysis stuff]</p><p>* Based on my own analysis of movie revenue patterns, an average movie will get 10x the opening Friday, or 3.5x the opening weekend, in final revenue. Low end to high end rating ranges (ie: low-rated films get a lower multiplier, and highly-rated films get a higher multiplier) look roughly like 5x–15x of Friday, or 2x–5x of the opening weekend. There are a few outliers (such as Titanic, or Avatar) where these ratios don't work, but the D&D movie does not appear to be one of those.</p><p></p><p>This analysis was originally done to see if there was a way to get an "objective" rating for a film based on the ratio between its hype (how much it earned in the opening days) and its long-term sales. There does appear to be a decent correlation for most films, though it doesn't handle edge cases very well.</p><p></p><p>Edit: I used IMDB ratings for the comparison, not Rotten Tomatoes.</p><p>[/spoiler]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Kinematics, post: 8984671, member: 6932123"] For the countries with data, that only applies to Slovakia, and it only made $138,298, so that's not a major factor in this update. The top 5 non-US markets (with gross sales over $2 million each: China, UK, Mexico, Australia, and Germany) add up to $18,686,210, which is almost exactly half of the entire non-US sales. There's no indication that this will shift in any substantial way. Based on initial data, and sales patterns based on first day and first weekend results, plus a middling-to-decent reception, domestic sales should land between $130 and $150 million (not counting the Mario movie as a potential spoiler). * With domestic being a bit more than half of worldwide, worldwide sales would then be expected to be around $260 to $300 million. With a budget of $150 million, that basically puts it at the break-even point (or less; some use 2.5x instead of 2x, which would want to hit $375 million). Yeah, $200 million domestic/$400 million worldwide would probably be needed for it to be considered solidly profitable. Seems very unlikely. I wouldn't be optimistic about a break-even movie getting a sequel, though not being a loss (maybe) means it may still be worth continuing the series in the hopes of building an audience (given Hasbro's hopes for monetizing the brand). It depends on how much they're willing to use this as a loss-leader for building a franchise. [spoiler=*Analysis stuff] * Based on my own analysis of movie revenue patterns, an average movie will get 10x the opening Friday, or 3.5x the opening weekend, in final revenue. Low end to high end rating ranges (ie: low-rated films get a lower multiplier, and highly-rated films get a higher multiplier) look roughly like 5x–15x of Friday, or 2x–5x of the opening weekend. There are a few outliers (such as Titanic, or Avatar) where these ratios don't work, but the D&D movie does not appear to be one of those. This analysis was originally done to see if there was a way to get an "objective" rating for a film based on the ratio between its hype (how much it earned in the opening days) and its long-term sales. There does appear to be a decent correlation for most films, though it doesn't handle edge cases very well. Edit: I used IMDB ratings for the comparison, not Rotten Tomatoes. [/spoiler] [/QUOTE]
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