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Decline of RPG sales
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<blockquote data-quote="JohnNephew" data-source="post: 2728640" data-attributes="member: 2171"><p>The problem I face in these discussions is that when I present a "big picture" view, I get criticized for a lack of raw numbers or objective data. But then when I then present specific data, or a methodology for studying the market by analyzing verifiable facts (such as the rate of new releases as reported in distributor weekly receiving e-mails over an extended period of time), I get criticized for presenting raw data rather than the big picture. Hrm.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I agree. There's a natural decline in sales as a product line ages; certainly that has long been the pattern in the RPG field, at least in going-on-twenty-years that I've been involved. Still, this thread is full of people who deny that there is any decline.</p><p></p><p>Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="JohnNephew, post: 2728640, member: 2171"] The problem I face in these discussions is that when I present a "big picture" view, I get criticized for a lack of raw numbers or objective data. But then when I then present specific data, or a methodology for studying the market by analyzing verifiable facts (such as the rate of new releases as reported in distributor weekly receiving e-mails over an extended period of time), I get criticized for presenting raw data rather than the big picture. Hrm. I agree. There's a natural decline in sales as a product line ages; certainly that has long been the pattern in the RPG field, at least in going-on-twenty-years that I've been involved. Still, this thread is full of people who deny that there is any decline. Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it. [/QUOTE]
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