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Favorite Flanking Fixes in Five-E?
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<blockquote data-quote="CleverNickName" data-source="post: 7483688" data-attributes="member: 50987"><p>I remember this from a while ago. His spreadsheet measures the average value of a d20 roll with advantage...not the straight difference between two rolls. In other words, his spreadsheet rolls two dice, and then records the value of the higher dice. He does this a million times, and gets the average result of that higher value. He does that for the lowest as well. Then he subtracts the average low from the average high, to get an average difference. The problem is, he uses average results instead of real numbers, and average results are approximations. And subtracting one approximation from another approximation only compounds the error. (Roll however many times you like, you will never see an instance where the difference between Roll 1 and Roll 2 is 13.825, but that's the number he uses.)</p><p></p><p>How much difference does it make? Not a whole lot. My spreadsheet predicts 6.63, and his predicts 6.65 (the difference between +3.325 and -3.325).</p><p></p><p>The part about it amounting to a flat +4 or +5 more art than science, though. (From that page: "Most of the time, D&D tends to set things up so that you need somewhere between a 7 and a 14 to succeed on a task unless it’s trivially easy or ridiculously hard....For target die rolls that are reasonably close to the middle of the range, advantage or disadvantage is about the same as having a plus or minus 4 or 5 to your die roll.") That's...not really a calculation.</p><p></p><p>Forgive me, I'm passionate about math and statistics and I could do this all day. (And I'm still not convinced that my math is perfect. But I'm getting off-topic, sorry if I bored anyone.) <span style="color: #008000">(EDIT: My math was, indeed, wrong. I should learn to trust my gut more often. See the threads below for more crunchy statistical goodness.)</span> Back to the topic at hand:</p><p></p><p>Even if the difference is only +4 <span style="color: #008000">(I mean +3)</span>, that is still very high, especially for the comparatively low ACs of 5E. It's a higher to-hit bonus than a legendary magical weapon has. Based on the math, I would say that our complaints of it being overpowered are well defended. But that's okay. Some people enjoy a high-power game, and they should be able to have one. (shrug) It's just not our bag.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CleverNickName, post: 7483688, member: 50987"] I remember this from a while ago. His spreadsheet measures the average value of a d20 roll with advantage...not the straight difference between two rolls. In other words, his spreadsheet rolls two dice, and then records the value of the higher dice. He does this a million times, and gets the average result of that higher value. He does that for the lowest as well. Then he subtracts the average low from the average high, to get an average difference. The problem is, he uses average results instead of real numbers, and average results are approximations. And subtracting one approximation from another approximation only compounds the error. (Roll however many times you like, you will never see an instance where the difference between Roll 1 and Roll 2 is 13.825, but that's the number he uses.) How much difference does it make? Not a whole lot. My spreadsheet predicts 6.63, and his predicts 6.65 (the difference between +3.325 and -3.325). The part about it amounting to a flat +4 or +5 more art than science, though. (From that page: "Most of the time, D&D tends to set things up so that you need somewhere between a 7 and a 14 to succeed on a task unless it’s trivially easy or ridiculously hard....For target die rolls that are reasonably close to the middle of the range, advantage or disadvantage is about the same as having a plus or minus 4 or 5 to your die roll.") That's...not really a calculation. Forgive me, I'm passionate about math and statistics and I could do this all day. (And I'm still not convinced that my math is perfect. But I'm getting off-topic, sorry if I bored anyone.) [COLOR="#008000"](EDIT: My math was, indeed, wrong. I should learn to trust my gut more often. See the threads below for more crunchy statistical goodness.)[/COLOR] Back to the topic at hand: Even if the difference is only +4 [COLOR="#008000"](I mean +3)[/COLOR], that is still very high, especially for the comparatively low ACs of 5E. It's a higher to-hit bonus than a legendary magical weapon has. Based on the math, I would say that our complaints of it being overpowered are well defended. But that's okay. Some people enjoy a high-power game, and they should be able to have one. (shrug) It's just not our bag. [/QUOTE]
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