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Game Design: Good average chances of success for all situations?
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<blockquote data-quote="kenada" data-source="post: 8999137" data-attributes="member: 70468"><p>My homebrew system uses degrees of success and (mostly) fixed target numbers, so I calibrated the results around the spread I wanted and how that interacts with progression. I use <a href="https://anydice.com" target="_blank">AnyDice</a> and write software to look at the results (depending on the complexity of what I want to examine). The latter is mostly necessary when exploring abilities that do something a little weird that doesn’t model nicely on AnyDice.</p><p></p><p>My system uses fixed difficulties (for the most part). It’s 2d10 against the following spread:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Critical Success:</strong> 23+</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Complete Success:</strong> 17–22</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Mixed Success:</strong> 11–16</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Failure:</strong> 10−</li> </ul><p>Characters have attributes ranging from −3 to +3 and skills with ranks from +1 to +5. Making a Skill Check untrained imposes a −4 penalty. Working Together can add an additional modifier, and you can sacrifice things to increase the degree of success (e.g., bribing a guard, adding extra materials to a craft). Below are the percentage chances of success broken down over the range of modifiers (<a href="https://anydice.com/program/2f082" target="_blank">AnyDice link</a>).</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Modifier</th><th>Failure</th><th>Mixed Success</th><th>Complete Success</th><th>Critical Success</th></tr><tr><td>−5</td><td>85%</td><td>14%</td><td>0%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>−4</td><td>79%</td><td>20%</td><td>0%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>−3</td><td>72%</td><td>27%</td><td>0%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>−2</td><td>64%</td><td>33%</td><td>2%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>−1</td><td>55%</td><td>39%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>+0</td><td>45%</td><td>45%</td><td>9%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>+1</td><td>36%</td><td>49%</td><td>14%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>+2</td><td>28%</td><td>51%</td><td>20%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>+3</td><td>21%</td><td>51%</td><td>27%</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>+4</td><td>15%</td><td>49%</td><td>33%</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>+5</td><td>10%</td><td>45%</td><td>39%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>+6</td><td>6%</td><td>39%</td><td>45%</td><td>10%</td></tr><tr><td>+7</td><td>3%</td><td>33%</td><td>49%</td><td>15%</td></tr><tr><td>+8</td><td>1%</td><td>27%</td><td>51%</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>+9</td><td>1%</td><td>20%</td><td>51%</td><td>28%</td></tr><tr><td>+10</td><td>1%</td><td>14%</td><td>49%</td><td>36%</td></tr><tr><td>+11</td><td>1%</td><td>9%</td><td>45%</td><td>45%</td></tr></table><p><strong><span style="font-size: 12px">Note:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px"> Percentages are not cumulative.</span></p><p></p><p>Characters have starting attributes of +0, so one with at least a +1 skill rank is looking at a ~64% chance of some kind of success. As you go up, the distribution shifts to better quality success. This spread was inspired by PbtA games. I feel like it gives a nice sense of progression while still working within the constraints of static difficulties, which I want as part of maintaining the neutrality of the referee. There are ways to shift the difficulty up and down, but it’s meant to be based on the framing of the scene and/or consensus. If a challenge is a HQ one, it seems like it should be harder. Still a WIP there though.</p><p></p><p>Combat is a little different in that the target Armor is not fixed (= 11 + armor proficiency + one of Dodge, Block, or Parry), but it’s intended to follow a similar spread (more or less). I could use a fixed target, and the Armor provides a modifier to your roll, but then it feels like I’d have just reinvented THAC0 as THAC17 or something wacky like that.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="kenada, post: 8999137, member: 70468"] My homebrew system uses degrees of success and (mostly) fixed target numbers, so I calibrated the results around the spread I wanted and how that interacts with progression. I use [URL='https://anydice.com']AnyDice[/URL] and write software to look at the results (depending on the complexity of what I want to examine). The latter is mostly necessary when exploring abilities that do something a little weird that doesn’t model nicely on AnyDice. My system uses fixed difficulties (for the most part). It’s 2d10 against the following spread: [LIST] [*][B]Critical Success:[/B] 23+ [*][B]Complete Success:[/B] 17–22 [*][B]Mixed Success:[/B] 11–16 [*][B]Failure:[/B] 10− [/LIST] Characters have attributes ranging from −3 to +3 and skills with ranks from +1 to +5. Making a Skill Check untrained imposes a −4 penalty. Working Together can add an additional modifier, and you can sacrifice things to increase the degree of success (e.g., bribing a guard, adding extra materials to a craft). Below are the percentage chances of success broken down over the range of modifiers ([URL='https://anydice.com/program/2f082']AnyDice link[/URL]). [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Modifier[/TH] [TH]Failure[/TH] [TH]Mixed Success[/TH] [TH]Complete Success[/TH] [TH]Critical Success[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]−5[/TD] [TD]85%[/TD] [TD]14%[/TD] [TD]0%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]−4[/TD] [TD]79%[/TD] [TD]20%[/TD] [TD]0%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]−3[/TD] [TD]72%[/TD] [TD]27%[/TD] [TD]0%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]−2[/TD] [TD]64%[/TD] [TD]33%[/TD] [TD]2%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]−1[/TD] [TD]55%[/TD] [TD]39%[/TD] [TD]5%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+0[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]9%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+1[/TD] [TD]36%[/TD] [TD]49%[/TD] [TD]14%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+2[/TD] [TD]28%[/TD] [TD]51%[/TD] [TD]20%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+3[/TD] [TD]21%[/TD] [TD]51%[/TD] [TD]27%[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+4[/TD] [TD]15%[/TD] [TD]49%[/TD] [TD]33%[/TD] [TD]3%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+5[/TD] [TD]10%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]39%[/TD] [TD]6%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+6[/TD] [TD]6%[/TD] [TD]39%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]10%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+7[/TD] [TD]3%[/TD] [TD]33%[/TD] [TD]49%[/TD] [TD]15%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+8[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [TD]27%[/TD] [TD]51%[/TD] [TD]21%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+9[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [TD]20%[/TD] [TD]51%[/TD] [TD]28%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+10[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [TD]14%[/TD] [TD]49%[/TD] [TD]36%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]+11[/TD] [TD]1%[/TD] [TD]9%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [TD]45%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [B][SIZE=3]Note:[/SIZE][/B][SIZE=3] Percentages are not cumulative.[/SIZE] Characters have starting attributes of +0, so one with at least a +1 skill rank is looking at a ~64% chance of some kind of success. As you go up, the distribution shifts to better quality success. This spread was inspired by PbtA games. I feel like it gives a nice sense of progression while still working within the constraints of static difficulties, which I want as part of maintaining the neutrality of the referee. There are ways to shift the difficulty up and down, but it’s meant to be based on the framing of the scene and/or consensus. If a challenge is a HQ one, it seems like it should be harder. Still a WIP there though. Combat is a little different in that the target Armor is not fixed (= 11 + armor proficiency + one of Dodge, Block, or Parry), but it’s intended to follow a similar spread (more or less). I could use a fixed target, and the Armor provides a modifier to your roll, but then it feels like I’d have just reinvented THAC0 as THAC17 or something wacky like that. [/QUOTE]
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