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Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?
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<blockquote data-quote="Rygar" data-source="post: 6353226" data-attributes="member: 6756765"><p>The PHB2 was according to wikipedia the #28 book on the USA today best seller list. The #27 book was "A lion called Christian". USA today later released total sales for 2009, and "A lion called Christian" sold 130,286. In order to sell that many units, it had spent 5 weeks on the list, the PHB2 spent one week. As we know that the book that immediately preceeded the PHB2 on the list sold 130,000 units and we know the PHB2 did not reappear on that list again, we can say with near certainty that the PHB2 did not sell 130,000 units.</p><p></p><p>Since we know that it took "A lion called Christian" 5 weeks to sell 130,000 units, we can say that it averaged approximately 26,000 units per week on the list. Now it is important to note that books sell more units on release day and fewer units as time goes on, so there is a margin of error there. We can't really come up with a accurate figure for the week in question, but we can say with certainty that "A lion called Christian" did not sell 130,000 units in that one week as it appeared on the list for 5 weeks. </p><p></p><p>As such, we can say with certainty that not only did the PHB2 not sell 130,000 units it sold substantially fewer than 130,000 units, with a lower bound of around 26,000 units with low confidence on accuracy for the lower bound. There is of course the potential that the PHB2 had an extremely unusual long-tail that allowed it to sell many more units, but there's no reason to believe that is the case as we know that WOTC reacted to sales figures by releasing Heinsoo and greenlighting the development of Essentials that year, an event that is unlikely if they were seeing non-standard sales trends.</p><p></p><p>3.0's PHB sold 300,000 units in its first month, and reportedly 500,000 units total.</p><p>3.5's PHB sold 250,000 units total reportedly.</p><p></p><p>So we can say with certainty that the PHB2, released in early 2009 (About 9 months after release?) showed a drop of <em>at least</em> 50% in customers, and possibly a drop of 90% in comparison to 3.5. In comparison to 3.0, the drop in customers was at least 75%, and potentially as much as 95%.</p><p></p><p>Data exists for 4th edition and it does demonstrate a drop. </p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/42695-facts-figures-2009-revised.html" target="_blank">http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/42695-facts-figures-2009-revised.html</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rygar, post: 6353226, member: 6756765"] The PHB2 was according to wikipedia the #28 book on the USA today best seller list. The #27 book was "A lion called Christian". USA today later released total sales for 2009, and "A lion called Christian" sold 130,286. In order to sell that many units, it had spent 5 weeks on the list, the PHB2 spent one week. As we know that the book that immediately preceeded the PHB2 on the list sold 130,000 units and we know the PHB2 did not reappear on that list again, we can say with near certainty that the PHB2 did not sell 130,000 units. Since we know that it took "A lion called Christian" 5 weeks to sell 130,000 units, we can say that it averaged approximately 26,000 units per week on the list. Now it is important to note that books sell more units on release day and fewer units as time goes on, so there is a margin of error there. We can't really come up with a accurate figure for the week in question, but we can say with certainty that "A lion called Christian" did not sell 130,000 units in that one week as it appeared on the list for 5 weeks. As such, we can say with certainty that not only did the PHB2 not sell 130,000 units it sold substantially fewer than 130,000 units, with a lower bound of around 26,000 units with low confidence on accuracy for the lower bound. There is of course the potential that the PHB2 had an extremely unusual long-tail that allowed it to sell many more units, but there's no reason to believe that is the case as we know that WOTC reacted to sales figures by releasing Heinsoo and greenlighting the development of Essentials that year, an event that is unlikely if they were seeing non-standard sales trends. 3.0's PHB sold 300,000 units in its first month, and reportedly 500,000 units total. 3.5's PHB sold 250,000 units total reportedly. So we can say with certainty that the PHB2, released in early 2009 (About 9 months after release?) showed a drop of [i]at least[/i] 50% in customers, and possibly a drop of 90% in comparison to 3.5. In comparison to 3.0, the drop in customers was at least 75%, and potentially as much as 95%. Data exists for 4th edition and it does demonstrate a drop. [url]http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/42695-facts-figures-2009-revised.html[/url] [/QUOTE]
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Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?
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