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<blockquote data-quote="AbdulAlhazred" data-source="post: 8370227" data-attributes="member: 82106"><p>Yeah, I went out and dug for numbers. What I found were wildly varying numbers from various groups claiming to be doing market analysis, gathering data, etc. Their definitions of the industry didn't seem to vary radically, at least in an obvious way, but the numbers vary by a full order of magnitude, from about 1.5 Billion to 15 Billion. Nobody really talked at all about different geographical regions (though there are reports on certain localities, like Japan). Given that I saw figures in most of these reports for European companies like Asmodee I am not convinced that you can argue the numbers are "US + Canada only." </p><p></p><p>Anyway, the most consistent figures put the 'Hobby Game' industry at about $1.5 billion, with CCGs being about 50% of that (M:tG basically) and then you have various other categories, board games, miniatures, TTRPG, and a couple other ones. The TTRPG numbers vary between different reports between around $50 million at a low, and I didn't see any that topped $100 million. I would say, they all talk about 'strong growth' and most reports were written at least a year ago, so I wouldn't think $100 million as a sort of round figure would be crazy. Remember though, WotC has a very high % of that, nobody else is even in order of magnitude close to them. </p><p></p><p>So, think about business. In ANY industry you are not going to capture huge % market share on day one. Even if your product is completely revolutionary the incumbents will continue to be the largest share for some time (IE D&D is not going to wither suddenly because someone produces a revolutionary new TTRPG product, it will take a few years). Nor will those players, with their long experience, deep libraries of IP, and talent pools and connections with service providers, simply give up and walk away. They will come back at you!</p><p></p><p>The upshot being, what if you get 20% market share? That's $20 million. Game studios spend $20 million just doing preliminary design and PoCs on a major game release. A single game can net $100s of millions. Even assuming you achieved FIFTY PERCENT market share in the TTRPG industry, AND you grew the industry by 50%, radical assumptions, you'd basically have the equivalent of one video game, which is probably a bunch less risky to produce, since you don't have to assume blockbuster never heard of before success to make money. </p><p></p><p>If I was a producer, maybe the pitch "Hey we have a neat TTRPG idea, can we spend $500k trying it out using the Foo Bunny IP?" OK, let me see what you got, maybe we can do something... I mean, I think that's enough to make a good RPG, for sure, and then some! I don't think you will make back your money in strict terms, but the synergy with other uses of the IP might make it a winner.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AbdulAlhazred, post: 8370227, member: 82106"] Yeah, I went out and dug for numbers. What I found were wildly varying numbers from various groups claiming to be doing market analysis, gathering data, etc. Their definitions of the industry didn't seem to vary radically, at least in an obvious way, but the numbers vary by a full order of magnitude, from about 1.5 Billion to 15 Billion. Nobody really talked at all about different geographical regions (though there are reports on certain localities, like Japan). Given that I saw figures in most of these reports for European companies like Asmodee I am not convinced that you can argue the numbers are "US + Canada only." Anyway, the most consistent figures put the 'Hobby Game' industry at about $1.5 billion, with CCGs being about 50% of that (M:tG basically) and then you have various other categories, board games, miniatures, TTRPG, and a couple other ones. The TTRPG numbers vary between different reports between around $50 million at a low, and I didn't see any that topped $100 million. I would say, they all talk about 'strong growth' and most reports were written at least a year ago, so I wouldn't think $100 million as a sort of round figure would be crazy. Remember though, WotC has a very high % of that, nobody else is even in order of magnitude close to them. So, think about business. In ANY industry you are not going to capture huge % market share on day one. Even if your product is completely revolutionary the incumbents will continue to be the largest share for some time (IE D&D is not going to wither suddenly because someone produces a revolutionary new TTRPG product, it will take a few years). Nor will those players, with their long experience, deep libraries of IP, and talent pools and connections with service providers, simply give up and walk away. They will come back at you! The upshot being, what if you get 20% market share? That's $20 million. Game studios spend $20 million just doing preliminary design and PoCs on a major game release. A single game can net $100s of millions. Even assuming you achieved FIFTY PERCENT market share in the TTRPG industry, AND you grew the industry by 50%, radical assumptions, you'd basically have the equivalent of one video game, which is probably a bunch less risky to produce, since you don't have to assume blockbuster never heard of before success to make money. If I was a producer, maybe the pitch "Hey we have a neat TTRPG idea, can we spend $500k trying it out using the Foo Bunny IP?" OK, let me see what you got, maybe we can do something... I mean, I think that's enough to make a good RPG, for sure, and then some! I don't think you will make back your money in strict terms, but the synergy with other uses of the IP might make it a winner. [/QUOTE]
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