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How well do you predict non-OGL/CC games will do?
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<blockquote data-quote="Sacrosanct" data-source="post: 9234715" data-attributes="member: 15700"><p>Based on the other discussion prompted by Ben Riggs. I never posted in the thread here, but I did respond to him and James Lowder directly on the FB post they other day. The discussion was around how the OGL impacted non-d20 publishes. Ben said that the OGL helped 3PP but that wasn't really the issue James said. He said (and I agree) that the OGL hurt non-d20 publishers/games because it was designed to take out the competition. </p><p></p><p>Ben mentioned Free League and the One Ring being successful, which ironically supported what James and I were saying. I.e., Free League moved to the OGL and for a good reason. Publishers started making D&D compatible products if they wanted any sales. That certainly aligns with my own publishing experiences over the past 25 years of doing this. Unless you're already well established (Matt Colville, ex-WoTC corporate execs starting new games), creating your own system most likely will never have been successful over the past few decades. I don't want to rehash the staying power of Matt's game here because that was done in the other thread.</p><p></p><p>Instead, I want to offer a more general poll. <em><strong> IF</strong></em> (and while possible, it's still speculation) WoTC's direction is to go digital behind paywalls with a much more limited license for the new version of D&D, which results in other companies putting out their own systems, how well do you think they will do? How willing are you to learn and play a new system outside of D&D. How willing are casual players or new players to do that?</p><p></p><p>Will big companies like Paizo, MCDM, and Kobold Press succeed with their own system? Will it be as big as 3PP were in the late 80s with White Wolf, or are those days of non-D&D games being popular gone?</p><p></p><p>Do smaller companies have a chance of more than a dozen people or so people play their games (that's a bit hyperbole, but you get the point)?</p><p></p><p>I remember those days in the 80s and 90s where trying out new systems was pretty common. We'd switch between D&D, Palladium, Traveller, Twilight 2000, Top Secret, and other games. It seems to me (and I admit my experience is probably limited), everything is D&D. So part of me is skeptical that 3PP will see any success going forward. I say this as I'm finishing up my own homebrew system lol. </p><p></p><p>I see 2 main challenges for 3PP, especially small indie publishers:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">D&D with the OGL has succeeded in dominating the market with D&D or D&D-esque games and companies like Palladium and WW will never again reach the level of popularity</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">AI is going to flood the market with ChatGPT written and Midjourney illustrated products, so finding a 3PP game is going to be harder than ever before, especially since most FLGS don't carry 3rd party systems</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Sacrosanct, post: 9234715, member: 15700"] Based on the other discussion prompted by Ben Riggs. I never posted in the thread here, but I did respond to him and James Lowder directly on the FB post they other day. The discussion was around how the OGL impacted non-d20 publishes. Ben said that the OGL helped 3PP but that wasn't really the issue James said. He said (and I agree) that the OGL hurt non-d20 publishers/games because it was designed to take out the competition. Ben mentioned Free League and the One Ring being successful, which ironically supported what James and I were saying. I.e., Free League moved to the OGL and for a good reason. Publishers started making D&D compatible products if they wanted any sales. That certainly aligns with my own publishing experiences over the past 25 years of doing this. Unless you're already well established (Matt Colville, ex-WoTC corporate execs starting new games), creating your own system most likely will never have been successful over the past few decades. I don't want to rehash the staying power of Matt's game here because that was done in the other thread. Instead, I want to offer a more general poll. [I][B] IF[/B][/I] (and while possible, it's still speculation) WoTC's direction is to go digital behind paywalls with a much more limited license for the new version of D&D, which results in other companies putting out their own systems, how well do you think they will do? How willing are you to learn and play a new system outside of D&D. How willing are casual players or new players to do that? Will big companies like Paizo, MCDM, and Kobold Press succeed with their own system? Will it be as big as 3PP were in the late 80s with White Wolf, or are those days of non-D&D games being popular gone? Do smaller companies have a chance of more than a dozen people or so people play their games (that's a bit hyperbole, but you get the point)? I remember those days in the 80s and 90s where trying out new systems was pretty common. We'd switch between D&D, Palladium, Traveller, Twilight 2000, Top Secret, and other games. It seems to me (and I admit my experience is probably limited), everything is D&D. So part of me is skeptical that 3PP will see any success going forward. I say this as I'm finishing up my own homebrew system lol. I see 2 main challenges for 3PP, especially small indie publishers: [LIST] [*]D&D with the OGL has succeeded in dominating the market with D&D or D&D-esque games and companies like Palladium and WW will never again reach the level of popularity [*]AI is going to flood the market with ChatGPT written and Midjourney illustrated products, so finding a 3PP game is going to be harder than ever before, especially since most FLGS don't carry 3rd party systems [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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