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Looking for math: Halfling Lucky vs. Elven accuracy
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<blockquote data-quote="Gavin O." data-source="post: 7555033" data-attributes="member: 6941440"><p>There is one interesting case in which Lucky is better, and that's that Lucky can be used with Reckless Attack while Elven Accuracy can't. Obviously a Halfling Barbarian isn't the most optimal, you're starting with +2 Strength, but at level 4, you can take +1 Strength/+1 Dex, and you deal pretty good damage.</p><p></p><p>Assuming AC 14, you hit on a roll of at least 9, or 11/20. If you roll a 1 you get to reroll, so that's another (11/20)*(1/20). In total that's 57.75% to hit but not crit. </p><p>If you have advantage, we double that result (since we're making two attacks), but subtract the square (since both results coming positive doesn't count as two hits) 57.75% + 57.75% - (57.75%*57.75%) = 82.14%</p><p></p><p>Our odds of a critical hit on one dice are 1/20 (that we roll a 20) + 1/400 (that we roll exactly a 1 and then a 20) = 5.25% We're rolling 2 dice, so we double it, and subtract the miniscule probability of 2 20's: 5.25% + 5.25% - (5.25%*5.25%) = 10.77%</p><p></p><p>Since we can't use a heavy weapon and get a flat bonus to damage, I'll be doing the math using dual handaxes. </p><p></p><p>Hit damage: 1d6+5 = 8.5</p><p></p><p>Second hit: 1d6+2 = 5.5</p><p></p><p>Crit damage: 2d6+5 (12) or 2d6+2 (9)</p><p></p><p>Total DPR:</p><p>First attack: 8.5* 0.8214 + 12 * 0.1077 = 8.2795</p><p>Second Attack: 5.5 * 0.8214 + 9* 0.1077 = 5.487</p><p>Total: 13.7665</p><p></p><p>If we compare that to a strength race that just took a strength ASI at level 4, we find an 78.25% chance to hit, 9.75% chance to crit, and +1 to damage on their first weapon attack</p><p>First attack: 9.5 * 0.78 + 13 * 0.0975 = 8.7013</p><p>Second Attack: 5.5* 0.78 + 9* 0.0925 = 5.1362</p><p>Total: 13.8376</p><p></p><p>So a lucky halfling Barbarian can <em>almost</em> keep up with another barb who has one more point of strength. Halfling would actually be slightly better for a Zealot, since their bonus damage benefits more from better crit chance and a higher chance to hit. Once you hit level 12 and can get 20 Strength, I think Halfling could outdamage most other Barb races for dual wielding.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Gavin O., post: 7555033, member: 6941440"] There is one interesting case in which Lucky is better, and that's that Lucky can be used with Reckless Attack while Elven Accuracy can't. Obviously a Halfling Barbarian isn't the most optimal, you're starting with +2 Strength, but at level 4, you can take +1 Strength/+1 Dex, and you deal pretty good damage. Assuming AC 14, you hit on a roll of at least 9, or 11/20. If you roll a 1 you get to reroll, so that's another (11/20)*(1/20). In total that's 57.75% to hit but not crit. If you have advantage, we double that result (since we're making two attacks), but subtract the square (since both results coming positive doesn't count as two hits) 57.75% + 57.75% - (57.75%*57.75%) = 82.14% Our odds of a critical hit on one dice are 1/20 (that we roll a 20) + 1/400 (that we roll exactly a 1 and then a 20) = 5.25% We're rolling 2 dice, so we double it, and subtract the miniscule probability of 2 20's: 5.25% + 5.25% - (5.25%*5.25%) = 10.77% Since we can't use a heavy weapon and get a flat bonus to damage, I'll be doing the math using dual handaxes. Hit damage: 1d6+5 = 8.5 Second hit: 1d6+2 = 5.5 Crit damage: 2d6+5 (12) or 2d6+2 (9) Total DPR: First attack: 8.5* 0.8214 + 12 * 0.1077 = 8.2795 Second Attack: 5.5 * 0.8214 + 9* 0.1077 = 5.487 Total: 13.7665 If we compare that to a strength race that just took a strength ASI at level 4, we find an 78.25% chance to hit, 9.75% chance to crit, and +1 to damage on their first weapon attack First attack: 9.5 * 0.78 + 13 * 0.0975 = 8.7013 Second Attack: 5.5* 0.78 + 9* 0.0925 = 5.1362 Total: 13.8376 So a lucky halfling Barbarian can [I]almost[/I] keep up with another barb who has one more point of strength. Halfling would actually be slightly better for a Zealot, since their bonus damage benefits more from better crit chance and a higher chance to hit. Once you hit level 12 and can get 20 Strength, I think Halfling could outdamage most other Barb races for dual wielding. [/QUOTE]
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