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"Ouch?!" - improved crit or +2 damage?
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<blockquote data-quote="orsal" data-source="post: 2494859" data-attributes="member: 16016"><p>With only a 20% chance to hit, you will only get that +2 damage about 20% of the time. That is why I put your word "sure" in quotes.</p><p> </p><p>Anyway, you're implicitly conceding my point -- you've retreated to the same kind of calculation that I (and others) did earlier, only our probabilities were correct.</p><p> </p><p>Oh, and "bell curve"? A single die has uniform distribution... nowhere near a bell curve.</p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p>Its own probabilities... and its own payoffs. If I offer you a bet that you will win 2 times out of 3, but that will pay you $1 if you win while costing you $3 if you lose, you'd be a fool to take it. The disparity in the payoff doesn't make up for the disparity in the probability of winning.</p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p>The automatic +2, of course... but if instead of +4 one time in 16, it was +10 one time in 16, while the +2 was only +2 one time in 4, that changes everything. I reiterate my previous point: you need to consider both the probability and the payoff to make a smart choice.</p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p>And I expect my fighter to be making scores of attack rolls over the course of the campaign, so I'm going to take the long-term view.</p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p>Depends on my situation. The idea behind insurance is that the customer, while taking a policy with a negative expected value, will get the money in the contingency that he'll need it the most. A concave down utility function -- the same money is more important to him in adversity than in prosperity. I don't see that applying here.</p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p>...that's so unlikely that you can reasonably ignore the possibility. If you want to say "but there is that nonzero probability, however small".. I'll point out that there is also a nonzero probability that in your 23,000 rolls you won't even get a *hit*, so the +2 damage would then come to naught.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="orsal, post: 2494859, member: 16016"] With only a 20% chance to hit, you will only get that +2 damage about 20% of the time. That is why I put your word "sure" in quotes. Anyway, you're implicitly conceding my point -- you've retreated to the same kind of calculation that I (and others) did earlier, only our probabilities were correct. Oh, and "bell curve"? A single die has uniform distribution... nowhere near a bell curve. Its own probabilities... and its own payoffs. If I offer you a bet that you will win 2 times out of 3, but that will pay you $1 if you win while costing you $3 if you lose, you'd be a fool to take it. The disparity in the payoff doesn't make up for the disparity in the probability of winning. The automatic +2, of course... but if instead of +4 one time in 16, it was +10 one time in 16, while the +2 was only +2 one time in 4, that changes everything. I reiterate my previous point: you need to consider both the probability and the payoff to make a smart choice. And I expect my fighter to be making scores of attack rolls over the course of the campaign, so I'm going to take the long-term view. Depends on my situation. The idea behind insurance is that the customer, while taking a policy with a negative expected value, will get the money in the contingency that he'll need it the most. A concave down utility function -- the same money is more important to him in adversity than in prosperity. I don't see that applying here. ...that's so unlikely that you can reasonably ignore the possibility. If you want to say "but there is that nonzero probability, however small".. I'll point out that there is also a nonzero probability that in your 23,000 rolls you won't even get a *hit*, so the +2 damage would then come to naught. [/QUOTE]
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"Ouch?!" - improved crit or +2 damage?
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