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<blockquote data-quote="BryonD" data-source="post: 5646104" data-attributes="member: 957"><p>Less than two years ago Paizo was still being scoffed at for thinking they could take THE 800 POUND GORILLA. All those other games existed then.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Perhaps PF + 4E still equals that 80%. Really I don't think that is true, but it gets into another topic. I think the BIGGEST happening is that 4E has been responsible for the brand truly losing dominance and Pazio read the market correctly and positioned themselves to grab up the vast lion share of D&D loses. But certainly PF has not acquired EVERYTHING 4E lost, so your assessment is, relatively, more accurate than it was at the time of the announcement thread. </p><p></p><p>But I still would bet that PF + 4E is within the historic fluctuation of "D&D". And PF, as is frequently pointed out, has a history of having been D&D for it's fan base to be established on. So to an important extent the market is still completely dominated by games that people discovered because it was officially D&D.</p><p></p><p>I haven't seen any evidence that anyone else is really getting anywhere near the exposure. There may (MAY) be a Talisman example for every D&D, but (A) you are counting one for John, one for Mark, one for John, one for Bryon, one for John, one for Kevin, one for John, ... and saying this pattern shows that John doesn''t have a leg up, and (B) I bet 90% of the people watching Big Bang had NO IDEA what Talisman was beyond simply being a generic geek fantasy game. You and I recognize it, but so what? You say D&D and 90% of the audience does know. As you more or less pointed out, I'd bet more people thought Talisman WAS D&D than actually knew what it was.</p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't believe I've been circular at all. I've repeated a point several times, but I have not used circular logic.</p><p></p><p>I agree it is two different points. I already stated that.</p><p></p><p>But, bottom line, Savage Worlds has not been given a fair chance by 10% of the people who have tried 3E or 4E. And you can substitute any other not-D&D game into that.</p><p></p><p>And yes, PF being "3.5 Thrives" further complicates things.</p><p></p><p>But my point is that a game with D&D on the cover will still get massively more interest than anything else. There is plenty of long tail out there for lots of other games to be successful at their own scale. But that doesn't make them on even footing by any stretch.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Fair enough, I choose that example because it is a still "to be released" game and that seemed to make sense for this conversation. </p><p></p><p>PF isn't valid because the rule set came with a huge fan base that learned it under the D&D name. Not remotely knocking Paizo, I actually believe (and this is pure gut feel) that PF is more popular now than 3.5 was in the waning couple years, so Paizo has kicked ass. But if someone over at the Forge or at his home desk somewhere, writes the most perfectly awesome fantasy game ever, the odds are still very remote that it will catch on because the critical mass of attention is so hard to get.</p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't follow your point here. I'm not cherry picking, I'm talking about the market as a whole.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BryonD, post: 5646104, member: 957"] Less than two years ago Paizo was still being scoffed at for thinking they could take THE 800 POUND GORILLA. All those other games existed then. Perhaps PF + 4E still equals that 80%. Really I don't think that is true, but it gets into another topic. I think the BIGGEST happening is that 4E has been responsible for the brand truly losing dominance and Pazio read the market correctly and positioned themselves to grab up the vast lion share of D&D loses. But certainly PF has not acquired EVERYTHING 4E lost, so your assessment is, relatively, more accurate than it was at the time of the announcement thread. But I still would bet that PF + 4E is within the historic fluctuation of "D&D". And PF, as is frequently pointed out, has a history of having been D&D for it's fan base to be established on. So to an important extent the market is still completely dominated by games that people discovered because it was officially D&D. I haven't seen any evidence that anyone else is really getting anywhere near the exposure. There may (MAY) be a Talisman example for every D&D, but (A) you are counting one for John, one for Mark, one for John, one for Bryon, one for John, one for Kevin, one for John, ... and saying this pattern shows that John doesn''t have a leg up, and (B) I bet 90% of the people watching Big Bang had NO IDEA what Talisman was beyond simply being a generic geek fantasy game. You and I recognize it, but so what? You say D&D and 90% of the audience does know. As you more or less pointed out, I'd bet more people thought Talisman WAS D&D than actually knew what it was. I don't believe I've been circular at all. I've repeated a point several times, but I have not used circular logic. I agree it is two different points. I already stated that. But, bottom line, Savage Worlds has not been given a fair chance by 10% of the people who have tried 3E or 4E. And you can substitute any other not-D&D game into that. And yes, PF being "3.5 Thrives" further complicates things. But my point is that a game with D&D on the cover will still get massively more interest than anything else. There is plenty of long tail out there for lots of other games to be successful at their own scale. But that doesn't make them on even footing by any stretch. Fair enough, I choose that example because it is a still "to be released" game and that seemed to make sense for this conversation. PF isn't valid because the rule set came with a huge fan base that learned it under the D&D name. Not remotely knocking Paizo, I actually believe (and this is pure gut feel) that PF is more popular now than 3.5 was in the waning couple years, so Paizo has kicked ass. But if someone over at the Forge or at his home desk somewhere, writes the most perfectly awesome fantasy game ever, the odds are still very remote that it will catch on because the critical mass of attention is so hard to get. I don't follow your point here. I'm not cherry picking, I'm talking about the market as a whole. [/QUOTE]
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