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Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral
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<blockquote data-quote="Rodrigo Istalindir" data-source="post: 4746769" data-attributes="member: 2810"><p>Couple bones to pick with his analysis.</p><p></p><p>First, I would be very, very surprised if retail booksellers *increased* the percentage of RPG sales they accounted for. That would fly in the trend of every other kind of book sale. Amazon, OTOH, likely accounts for far more of the RPG sales than they did 9 years ago. Using retail markers to base any analysis on seems error-prone to me.</p><p></p><p>Second, sales of secondary 'core' books (and god how it irks me that the term 'core' has been debased) are largely irrlevant. They've always been less than 'true' core, and the way WotC decided to break things out IMO just increases the chance that a single copy per group will be acquired. If you aren't going to be playing one of the PHB2 classes, there's zero reason to get the book. The ancillary crunch that applies to other classes isn't enough to justify having multiple copies.</p><p></p><p>And anyone with a DDI sub is less likely to buy the newer books. Which, really, is what I think the real agenda is. The books are here to sell DDI subs; the $10/month/player is far more important to the bottom line than the sales of the books, since the penetration of the non-core books is a small fraction of the player-base.</p><p></p><p>The farm has been bet on DDI. The question is, will the degree to which it cannablizes dead-tree sales outweigh the revenue?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rodrigo Istalindir, post: 4746769, member: 2810"] Couple bones to pick with his analysis. First, I would be very, very surprised if retail booksellers *increased* the percentage of RPG sales they accounted for. That would fly in the trend of every other kind of book sale. Amazon, OTOH, likely accounts for far more of the RPG sales than they did 9 years ago. Using retail markers to base any analysis on seems error-prone to me. Second, sales of secondary 'core' books (and god how it irks me that the term 'core' has been debased) are largely irrlevant. They've always been less than 'true' core, and the way WotC decided to break things out IMO just increases the chance that a single copy per group will be acquired. If you aren't going to be playing one of the PHB2 classes, there's zero reason to get the book. The ancillary crunch that applies to other classes isn't enough to justify having multiple copies. And anyone with a DDI sub is less likely to buy the newer books. Which, really, is what I think the real agenda is. The books are here to sell DDI subs; the $10/month/player is far more important to the bottom line than the sales of the books, since the penetration of the non-core books is a small fraction of the player-base. The farm has been bet on DDI. The question is, will the degree to which it cannablizes dead-tree sales outweigh the revenue? [/QUOTE]
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