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Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral
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<blockquote data-quote="WizarDru" data-source="post: 5452514" data-attributes="member: 151"><p>I think the problem is identifying what qualifies as a '<em>clear mistake</em>'.</p><p></p><p>In 2000, WotC laid off 100 employees. In 2002, they did it again. In 2005 and 2008, they also had smaller layoffs. If we were to use that information as an indicator, one could assume that 2000-2002 were TERRIBLE years. But those were the 'boom years' of 3E. WotC was selling PHBs like hotcakes and the market was strong. Many laid-off employees went on to success as contractors or with their own companies (forming Green Ronin, Ptolus, Paizo and more). WotC continued on their merry, successful way. People were actually expecting lay-offs this year because they've laid off employees both years of the last two times they've released a new edition.</p><p></p><p>I'm not saying they haven't made or mistakes or aren't having problems now. I don't know. As is usual with these discussions, we have no data other than conjecture to know, effectively. When the magazines were given to Paizo...it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead, we got the best run of the magazines since the 80s. When they cancelled the magazines in favor of DDI, it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead we see DDI subscriptions more and more becoming the focus of WotC's efforts.</p><p></p><p>I just don't envision the kind of death-spiral that I think Ryan was suggesting actually happening. I don't think the DDXP announcements qualify for anything other than a tacit admission that they need to change their publishing model. I suspect "Wrath of Ashardalon" and "D&D: Gamma World" are test cases for one new strategy and the DDI changes are another. Only time will tell if it proves fruitful.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="WizarDru, post: 5452514, member: 151"] I think the problem is identifying what qualifies as a '[i]clear mistake[/i]'. In 2000, WotC laid off 100 employees. In 2002, they did it again. In 2005 and 2008, they also had smaller layoffs. If we were to use that information as an indicator, one could assume that 2000-2002 were TERRIBLE years. But those were the 'boom years' of 3E. WotC was selling PHBs like hotcakes and the market was strong. Many laid-off employees went on to success as contractors or with their own companies (forming Green Ronin, Ptolus, Paizo and more). WotC continued on their merry, successful way. People were actually expecting lay-offs this year because they've laid off employees both years of the last two times they've released a new edition. I'm not saying they haven't made or mistakes or aren't having problems now. I don't know. As is usual with these discussions, we have no data other than conjecture to know, effectively. When the magazines were given to Paizo...it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead, we got the best run of the magazines since the 80s. When they cancelled the magazines in favor of DDI, it was assumed that they had made a mistake, that they would fail. Instead we see DDI subscriptions more and more becoming the focus of WotC's efforts. I just don't envision the kind of death-spiral that I think Ryan was suggesting actually happening. I don't think the DDXP announcements qualify for anything other than a tacit admission that they need to change their publishing model. I suspect "Wrath of Ashardalon" and "D&D: Gamma World" are test cases for one new strategy and the DDI changes are another. Only time will tell if it proves fruitful. [/QUOTE]
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