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Ryan Dancey speaks - the Most Successful Year for Fantasy RPGaming ever. However...
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<blockquote data-quote="Jim Hague" data-source="post: 2804637" data-attributes="member: 17550"><p>No, I understood your point perfectly, I think. You're discarding a couple of key points in favor of speculation. I could say that in 10 years we'll all fly around Moeller skycars, and the speculation would be equally unfounded. We know a few things:</p><p></p><p>*We're getting very close to the practical limit of computing power under the current models. Even allowing for expansion, when you reach the 5 nanometer limit for processors, that's it. There's some promising work being done with quantum computing...but that's going to be the realm of inudstry and academic instiutions for the foreseeable future.</p><p></p><p>*MMOs are <em>fundamentally different</em> from tabletop gaming in a lot of respects. While they may grow together because of pressure towards covergent development, you're still going to need an extremely sophisticated set of tools to keep up with all those pretty graphics and persistent world models. </p><p></p><p>Right now, the drive is towards prettier games with shallower content, and those games cost literally millions of dollars. Development cost is no guarantee of success, either, and profit margins are shrinking. The big economic fights are between genre kings like Halo and Half-Life primarily, with second and third-tier niche games scrabbling for the remainder.</p><p></p><p>Fact is, Joe Average (by far the biggest market for MMOs) wants an experience that makes them feel a <em>little</em> geeky, but not too much, that they can sit down, play, then walk away. And you're not going to see a true convergence of tabletop play and online play until you figure out some way to have them provide content (thus juicing a different desire in their fun than whacking stuff and taking loot) and affect the world, while making the tools for that accessible to the average user. And given the current trend, you're not going to see that for a long, long time...not until the market crashes and forces a shift in thinking.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jim Hague, post: 2804637, member: 17550"] No, I understood your point perfectly, I think. You're discarding a couple of key points in favor of speculation. I could say that in 10 years we'll all fly around Moeller skycars, and the speculation would be equally unfounded. We know a few things: *We're getting very close to the practical limit of computing power under the current models. Even allowing for expansion, when you reach the 5 nanometer limit for processors, that's it. There's some promising work being done with quantum computing...but that's going to be the realm of inudstry and academic instiutions for the foreseeable future. *MMOs are [i]fundamentally different[/i] from tabletop gaming in a lot of respects. While they may grow together because of pressure towards covergent development, you're still going to need an extremely sophisticated set of tools to keep up with all those pretty graphics and persistent world models. Right now, the drive is towards prettier games with shallower content, and those games cost literally millions of dollars. Development cost is no guarantee of success, either, and profit margins are shrinking. The big economic fights are between genre kings like Halo and Half-Life primarily, with second and third-tier niche games scrabbling for the remainder. Fact is, Joe Average (by far the biggest market for MMOs) wants an experience that makes them feel a [i]little[/i] geeky, but not too much, that they can sit down, play, then walk away. And you're not going to see a true convergence of tabletop play and online play until you figure out some way to have them provide content (thus juicing a different desire in their fun than whacking stuff and taking loot) and affect the world, while making the tools for that accessible to the average user. And given the current trend, you're not going to see that for a long, long time...not until the market crashes and forces a shift in thinking. [/QUOTE]
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