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Ryan Dancey speaks - the Most Successful Year for Fantasy RPGaming ever. However...
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<blockquote data-quote="Jim Hague" data-source="post: 2804702" data-attributes="member: 17550"><p>You're pretty obviously coming at this from the perspective of the consumer who isn't familiar with technology or actual trends. But I'll play for a bit.</p><p></p><p>First, the analogy holds - you pointed out that Bill Gates, a man responsible in large part for defining the PC market, couldn't accurately predict 5 years in the future, let alone 10. I'm going to take a guess here and say that you're not in the tech industry. So your 'predictions' don't hold. You're making broad generalizations from a consumer perspective, and that just won't work. I can make unfounded predictions too...and they'll have just about the same chance of being true. </p><p></p><p>When I say shallower content, I mean that the games <em>look</em> good, but are growing shorter and shorter, with less and less content. Take a look at Halo 2 (current genre king) or something oddball like Stubbs the Zombie. The current trend is towards games with 10-12 hours of content. Quick fixes. But the market demands <em>pretty</em>, the market demands <em>big-name (or at least name) actors</em>. This creates a nasty spiral of increasing cost for less product. And Joe Gamer is fine with that. They want a quick fix. Unfortunately, the quick fix doesn't pay the bills. Games right now need to be either genre kings (Halo) or niche games with a hardcore market (pick a number of 2nd and 3rd tier games).</p><p></p><p>End result - with the current trending, you're going to see a market crash fairly soon as developers can no longer sustain the cost. At a fairly important and quiet game conference this year, Wil Wright, creator of the Sims, revealed his next game, Spore. Spore's built on two concepts that don't fit the current model - dynamic content spawned from the game itself (no pre-rendered art) and player-created content. It breaks the model, because it's less a game (no truly defined goals beyond making sure your Spore continues to survive and develop, even becoming several stages of a civilization) and more a toy. </p><p></p><p>And maybe that's how TTRPGs need to be approached - as a toy, not a game.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jim Hague, post: 2804702, member: 17550"] You're pretty obviously coming at this from the perspective of the consumer who isn't familiar with technology or actual trends. But I'll play for a bit. First, the analogy holds - you pointed out that Bill Gates, a man responsible in large part for defining the PC market, couldn't accurately predict 5 years in the future, let alone 10. I'm going to take a guess here and say that you're not in the tech industry. So your 'predictions' don't hold. You're making broad generalizations from a consumer perspective, and that just won't work. I can make unfounded predictions too...and they'll have just about the same chance of being true. When I say shallower content, I mean that the games [i]look[/i] good, but are growing shorter and shorter, with less and less content. Take a look at Halo 2 (current genre king) or something oddball like Stubbs the Zombie. The current trend is towards games with 10-12 hours of content. Quick fixes. But the market demands [i]pretty[/i], the market demands [i]big-name (or at least name) actors[/i]. This creates a nasty spiral of increasing cost for less product. And Joe Gamer is fine with that. They want a quick fix. Unfortunately, the quick fix doesn't pay the bills. Games right now need to be either genre kings (Halo) or niche games with a hardcore market (pick a number of 2nd and 3rd tier games). End result - with the current trending, you're going to see a market crash fairly soon as developers can no longer sustain the cost. At a fairly important and quiet game conference this year, Wil Wright, creator of the Sims, revealed his next game, Spore. Spore's built on two concepts that don't fit the current model - dynamic content spawned from the game itself (no pre-rendered art) and player-created content. It breaks the model, because it's less a game (no truly defined goals beyond making sure your Spore continues to survive and develop, even becoming several stages of a civilization) and more a toy. And maybe that's how TTRPGs need to be approached - as a toy, not a game. [/QUOTE]
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