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D&D Older Editions
Showing the Math: Proving that 4e’s Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)
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<blockquote data-quote="Kaodi" data-source="post: 4279265" data-attributes="member: 1231"><p>Actually, when I started trying to do an easy challenge (w/ 0.8 and 0.2), I saw that my numbers were screwed up and I went back to look at my math. I had been doing 5C4 x (0.55)^4 x (0.45) + 4C4 x (0.55)^4 for Complexity 1, but after I reviewed the last time I did probability, I realized it should have been 4C3 x (.55)^4 x (0.45) + 3C3 x (0.55)^4, and got the same numbers you just did (once I had it right).</p><p></p><p>Anyway, one other factor that should probably be considered in determining what probability of success is right for a Complexity 5 challenge is how bad the negative consequences are. If failure means death, then it should probably be as difficult as the equivalent combat encounter. The less harsh the consequences are, the harder it should be.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Kaodi, post: 4279265, member: 1231"] Actually, when I started trying to do an easy challenge (w/ 0.8 and 0.2), I saw that my numbers were screwed up and I went back to look at my math. I had been doing 5C4 x (0.55)^4 x (0.45) + 4C4 x (0.55)^4 for Complexity 1, but after I reviewed the last time I did probability, I realized it should have been 4C3 x (.55)^4 x (0.45) + 3C3 x (0.55)^4, and got the same numbers you just did (once I had it right). Anyway, one other factor that should probably be considered in determining what probability of success is right for a Complexity 5 challenge is how bad the negative consequences are. If failure means death, then it should probably be as difficult as the equivalent combat encounter. The less harsh the consequences are, the harder it should be. [/QUOTE]
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Showing the Math: Proving that 4e’s Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)
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