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Survivor Legendary Monsters: EVIL DRAGONS WIN!
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<blockquote data-quote="Harzel" data-source="post: 7232138" data-attributes="member: 6857506"><p>Bother! Now you've made me think about it. And, embarrassingly, a simple answer doesn't seem that hard.</p><p></p><p>Assuming voting is distributed uniformly across the existing survivors, I guess the chances would be 1/(13*12) = 1/156, or about 0.6%. Uniform distribution is probably a fairly poor assumption, though, since some contestants seem to attract more attention than others at any given time. Not sure what effect that has in this case.</p><p></p><p>EDIT: Although I didn't account for the fact that it was also a cross-post, which is what made it stand out. Those are uncommon, but not rare, let's estimate it is 1/20 (i.e., a crit fail <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" />). That would bring it down to 1/3120 or about 0.03%. So, yeah, I guess that was somewhat remarkable, but not entirely unexpected over all Survivor threads.</p><p></p><p>EDIT2: And that all assumes that choice of up-vote, choice of down-vote, and cross-posting are all independent. Probably fair for cross-posting vs the choices; up-vote vs. down-vote probably not so much.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Harzel, post: 7232138, member: 6857506"] Bother! Now you've made me think about it. And, embarrassingly, a simple answer doesn't seem that hard. Assuming voting is distributed uniformly across the existing survivors, I guess the chances would be 1/(13*12) = 1/156, or about 0.6%. Uniform distribution is probably a fairly poor assumption, though, since some contestants seem to attract more attention than others at any given time. Not sure what effect that has in this case. EDIT: Although I didn't account for the fact that it was also a cross-post, which is what made it stand out. Those are uncommon, but not rare, let's estimate it is 1/20 (i.e., a crit fail ;)). That would bring it down to 1/3120 or about 0.03%. So, yeah, I guess that was somewhat remarkable, but not entirely unexpected over all Survivor threads. EDIT2: And that all assumes that choice of up-vote, choice of down-vote, and cross-posting are all independent. Probably fair for cross-posting vs the choices; up-vote vs. down-vote probably not so much. [/QUOTE]
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