Weekend Report: 'Sniper' Sets January Record with Stunning $90 Million Debut
by Ray Subers --- January 18, 2015
Exceeding all reasonable expectations for an R-rated war drama, Clint Eastwood's American Sniper dominated the Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend box office with an estimated $90.2 million.
That's over twice as high as the previous January opening weekend record held by Ride Along ($41.5 million), and ranks second all-time for a rated R movie behind 2003's The Matrix Reloaded ($91.8 million).
The Wedding Ringer and Paddington also had solid openings, while Michael Mann's Blackhat was a disaster.
The Top 12 earned an estimated $183.6 million this weekend, which is up 19 percent from the same frame last year.
American Sniper's $90.2 million opening ranks 40th all-time, which puts it in the same ballpark as last year's crop of superhero movies (Captain America: The Winter Soldier, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: Days of Future Past and Guardians of the Galaxy). Considering Sniper didn't have the advantage of 3D pricing, it's likely that it actually sold more tickets than any of those movies.
On Saturday, American Sniper passed The Grand Budapest Hotel to become the highest-grossing movie nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture this year. It's currently earned more than Birdman, The Theory of Everything, Boyhood and Whiplash combined.
Heading in to the weekend, the best comparable title for American Sniper seemed to be Lone Survivor. Both movies were true stories set during our recent conflicts in the Middle East, and both featured an A-list star (Mark Wahlberg, Bradley Cooper) playing a Navy SEAL. Each movie also arrived in theaters after the conflicts had drawn to an end, and each movie focused on the brave soldiers involved instead of the contentious politics behind them.
What, then, explains the $50 million difference between American Sniper's $90 million and Lone Survivor's $37.8 million? American Sniper probably got a bit of a boost from stronger reviews, a slew of Oscar nominations (six, including Best Picture), and director Clint Eastwood's brand. Also, it's possible that in the year since Lone Survivor opened, audiences have become even more comfortable with the notion of watching a movie set in Iraq or Afghanistan.
The key difference could be that Lone Survivor was set entirely in Afghanistan, whereas American Sniper had one foot in Iraq and one foot at home. Marketing mixed imagery of the title character entrenched in a war zone with shots of him stateside with his family, and many previews culminated with an emotional phone call from battle in which he declares "I'm ready to come home." This humanized the character, and made him extremely relatable to current and former troops and their family members.
American Sniper's audience was 57 percent male and 63 percent over the age of 25. The movie earned an estimated $11.5 million in IMAX, which is a record for an R-rated movie. It received a rare "A+" CinemaScore, which suggests that word-of-mouth will be through the roof. Look for American Sniper to wrap up with at least $250 million, maybe quite a bit more.
In a distant second place, The Wedding Ringer opened to an estimated $21 million at 3,003 locations. That's the fourth $20-million-plus debut in a row for Kevin Hart, following Ride Along, About Last Night (2014) and Think Like a Man Too. At the same time, it's slightly concerning that this only opened to half as much as Ride Along, which took in $41.5 million on the same weekend last year.
More so than on previous movies, Kevin Hart was the primary selling point for The Wedding Ringer. This calls to mind last Summer's Tammy, which opened at the same level ($21.6 million) and was sold entirely on Melissa McCarthy's star power. In both cases, the $20-million-plus opening reinforces how popular the star is. As with Tammy, though, The Wedding Ringer's opening was a big drop off from Hart's previous movies. It will be interesting to see if Hart can reverse this downward trend in March, when he stars opposite Will Ferrell in Get Hard.
With solid word-of-mouth ("A-" CinemaScore) and no serious comedy competition on the horizon, The Wedding Ringer should ultimately wind up with at least $55 million.
Paddington wasn't far behind with $19.3 million. That's essentially on par with The Nut Job, which opened to $19.4 million over the same weekend last year. For a family-friendly movie that's already a hit overseas, this is a very solid start.
The Weinstein Company originally had Paddington scheduled for Christmas Day, but smartly moved it out of that slot and to this less competitive January date. With great word-of-mouth ("A" CinemaScore) and stellar reviews (98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), Paddington should hold up really well in the coming weeks; don't be surprised if this winds up over $70 million.
After leading the box office last weekend, Taken 3 plummeted 64 percent to an estimated $14.05 million. That steep drop is due to strong upfront demand from fans of the franchise, unenthusiastic word-of-mouth on this new installment, and intense competition from American Sniper. Taken 3 has so far earned $62.8 million, and is now on track to close below $100 million.
Selma added $8.3 million this weekend, which was off 27 percent from opening weekend. That's a good hold, and can be attributed to the movie's Best Picture nomination, strong word-of-mouth, and its connection to the holiday weekend. To date, Selma has earned $26 million.
After receiving eight Oscar nominations on Thursday, The Imitation Game held steady at $7.2 million this weekend. On Sunday, it passed $50 million.
Opening at 2,567 theaters, Blackhat earned a miniscule $4 million this weekend. That's director Michael Mann's lowest opening since Manhunter in 1986. It's also one of the worst debuts ever for a movie playing in over 2,500 locations.
This terrible debut can be attributed partly to the enormous strength of American Sniper, which was a far more appealing option for people looking for adults looking for an R-rated action movie. Even without Sniper, though, Blackhat was going to have a tough time: the look of it seemed off (Mann's trademark style was an odd fit) and it was really tough to buy "Sexiest Man Alive" Chris Hemsworth as "a Blackhat hacker named Hathaway."
With poor reviews and weak word-of-mouth ("C-" CinemaScore), this movie is going to fall of quickly from here; it wouldn't be surprising if this fell short of $10 million total.
After garnering five Oscar nominations on Thursday, Foxcatcher finally expanded nationwide this weekend. Playing at 759 locations, the drama added $1.13 million for a new total of $10.05 million.
Playing at 12 locations, Still Alice earned an estimated $212,000 this weekend. That translates to a solid $17,667 per-theater average. The movie should continue to do solid business over the next month or two as moviegoers seek out Julianne Moore's Oscar-nominated performance.
