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Tolkien vs. Orwell: Who understood modern surveillance best (article)
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<blockquote data-quote="tomBitonti" data-source="post: 6162694" data-attributes="member: 13107"><p>But is it? (Note: I'm not disagreeing with you. But, I'm needing to see reasoning based by numbers and by a clear evaluation of the trade offs.)</p><p></p><p>The problem needs to be stated in the original form to avoid fallacies:</p><p></p><p>1 Boston Bomber per 1,000,000 people</p><p></p><p>NSA type monitoring on all of those people.</p><p></p><p>9,999 false positives. As a result of these false positives, these folks will have their lives turned upside down. Let's say a year of law enforcement harassment, perhaps more.</p><p></p><p>1 real positive.</p><p></p><p>There are three immediate problems:</p><p></p><p>* No time periods are mentioned. Let's thrown in "every year" as an additional detail.</p><p></p><p>* The figures would imply about 300 Boston Bombings a year in the US.</p><p></p><p>* Identifying the real positive itself involves some uncertainty. Does this mean detecting an ongoing and provable plot? Or stray thoughts?</p><p></p><p>If we use 9/11 as the example, that was about 20 people out of 300,000,000. I'm working out that that would mean 150,000 false positives against 20 positives in the entire country.</p><p></p><p>There is still a problem: 9/11 type events aren't initiated (it would seem) every year. Plus, the pool of possible bombers is larger than the US population.</p><p></p><p>Let's say those 150,000 are simply put in jail, until they are shown to not be a threat. How does locking 150,000 people a year (for one year) compare with preventing a 9/11 attack every 20 years? (Or X years: There is no basis that I have for assigning a frequency to 9/11 type events.)</p><p></p><p>Thx!</p><p></p><p>TomB</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tomBitonti, post: 6162694, member: 13107"] But is it? (Note: I'm not disagreeing with you. But, I'm needing to see reasoning based by numbers and by a clear evaluation of the trade offs.) The problem needs to be stated in the original form to avoid fallacies: 1 Boston Bomber per 1,000,000 people NSA type monitoring on all of those people. 9,999 false positives. As a result of these false positives, these folks will have their lives turned upside down. Let's say a year of law enforcement harassment, perhaps more. 1 real positive. There are three immediate problems: * No time periods are mentioned. Let's thrown in "every year" as an additional detail. * The figures would imply about 300 Boston Bombings a year in the US. * Identifying the real positive itself involves some uncertainty. Does this mean detecting an ongoing and provable plot? Or stray thoughts? If we use 9/11 as the example, that was about 20 people out of 300,000,000. I'm working out that that would mean 150,000 false positives against 20 positives in the entire country. There is still a problem: 9/11 type events aren't initiated (it would seem) every year. Plus, the pool of possible bombers is larger than the US population. Let's say those 150,000 are simply put in jail, until they are shown to not be a threat. How does locking 150,000 people a year (for one year) compare with preventing a 9/11 attack every 20 years? (Or X years: There is no basis that I have for assigning a frequency to 9/11 type events.) Thx! TomB [/QUOTE]
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