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<blockquote data-quote="aramis erak" data-source="post: 8758311" data-attributes="member: 6779310"><p>2014 is whe the only vaguely reliable information starts being released.</p><p>Traveller is the only documentary source from prior.</p><p>Claiming a trend exists from before there is reliable data is, to be blunt, not smart.</p><p>The reliable data dates only from 2014 on, and is only reliable from 2015. The only available data from prior is Traveller's data.</p><p></p><p>There's nothing curious about the Traveller data other than that Marc released it at all. Traveller selling 170k units of CT, which went OOP in 1987 and OOS in 1988, and TSR claiming a million players - dissimilar data - but it makes it clear that, given the ratio of bookless to book-owning players, D&D was likely not lying about the million player number, but also that D&D sales numbers are probably only about 1.5× to 2× that of Traveller. (The circa 1990 survey that was sent to RPGA GMs had a "send me the results" tickbox. I did. Only about 1 in 4 players and almost all GMs had bought the AD&D2 PHB rules. Few players bought the DMG, but the number was unmemorable.</p><p></p><p>So, the 1990 status quo was probably about 1 million D&D players, 250K AD&D2 PHBs, and some lesser number of DMG's and MM's. But we don't, and <em>can not</em>, <u>know</u> those sales numbers until WotC releases them... Mike Mearls has stated having seen the numbers. We know that by 18 months after release, Mearls noted 5E has outsold all other D&D editions. I don't recall any clarification whether he meant <em>any single other edition</em> or meant <em>all others combined</em>.</p><p></p><p><strong><span style="color: rgb(147, 101, 184)">At end of the day, we have very little data, and not enough to actually note trends prior to 2015. </span></strong></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="aramis erak, post: 8758311, member: 6779310"] 2014 is whe the only vaguely reliable information starts being released. Traveller is the only documentary source from prior. Claiming a trend exists from before there is reliable data is, to be blunt, not smart. The reliable data dates only from 2014 on, and is only reliable from 2015. The only available data from prior is Traveller's data. There's nothing curious about the Traveller data other than that Marc released it at all. Traveller selling 170k units of CT, which went OOP in 1987 and OOS in 1988, and TSR claiming a million players - dissimilar data - but it makes it clear that, given the ratio of bookless to book-owning players, D&D was likely not lying about the million player number, but also that D&D sales numbers are probably only about 1.5× to 2× that of Traveller. (The circa 1990 survey that was sent to RPGA GMs had a "send me the results" tickbox. I did. Only about 1 in 4 players and almost all GMs had bought the AD&D2 PHB rules. Few players bought the DMG, but the number was unmemorable. So, the 1990 status quo was probably about 1 million D&D players, 250K AD&D2 PHBs, and some lesser number of DMG's and MM's. But we don't, and [I]can not[/I], [U]know[/U] those sales numbers until WotC releases them... Mike Mearls has stated having seen the numbers. We know that by 18 months after release, Mearls noted 5E has outsold all other D&D editions. I don't recall any clarification whether he meant [I]any single other edition[/I] or meant [I]all others combined[/I]. [B][COLOR=rgb(147, 101, 184)]At end of the day, we have very little data, and not enough to actually note trends prior to 2015. [/COLOR][/B] [/QUOTE]
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