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Yet Another Arcane Trickster / Bladesinger Thread: The Concentration Problem
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<blockquote data-quote="Esker" data-source="post: 7590560" data-attributes="member: 6966824"><p>Thanks! Yeah, it's something I've thought about, for sure. If it would come at the cost of a +2 DEX though it's only a net +1 to hit, at the cost of a bit of damage per hit, +1 AC, etc.</p><p></p><p>Let's assume 18 DEX, sharpshooter + crossbow expert at Rogue 11 (so 6d6 sneak attack), vs an enemy with AC 20, and compare archery fighting style to +2 DEX. We'll do three attacks and assume no plus modifier on the weapon.</p><p></p><p>* Baseline with no advantage: it's slightly better not to use power attacks since the chance that they would all miss is too high. 33.7 expected DPR.</p><p>* Baseline with advantage on the first shot: probably want to power attack only on the first shot; the mean damage is about the same either way, but I'd rather have the lower variance resulting from regular attacks. 43.7 expected DPR.</p><p>* Baseline with advantage on all attacks: power attacks all the way, for 60.5 expected DPR.</p><p></p><p>Next, assume we take Rogue 12 for +2 to DEX.</p><p>* No advantage: No power attacks, for 37.1 expected DPR. The DEX was worth 3.4 DPR.</p><p>* Advantage on 1st: Now you get a couple of points of DPR by using power attacks every time. Not clear it's worth the variance, but 49.3 expected DPR. The DEX was worth 5.6 DPR.</p><p>* Advantage on all: Power attacks all the way, for 66.4 eDPR. The DEX was worth 5.9.</p><p></p><p>Instead, suppose we take Fighter 1 for archery style:</p><p>* Without advantage: we get up to 40.0 eDPR, an additional 2.9 over the ASI.</p><p>* Advantage on 1st: 51.3 eDPR, 1.8 more than the ASI.</p><p>* Advantage on All: 67.2 eDPR, 0.8 more than the ASI.</p><p></p><p>So archery style by itself has pretty meager returns if we forego an ASI for it; not worth giving up the other benefits of dexterity, IMO. Now of course there was another feat in there. If that feat was Skulker, the benefits of archery go down further, since we will more often push advantage from the first attack to the second.</p><p></p><p>However, we could take +2 DEX at 18 and then a fighter level, and not take Skulker. In that case, archery nets about 7 extra eDPR across all advantage statuses. Now we want to compare that to the value of Skulker.</p><p></p><p>It's hard to measure the DPR value of Skulker, since its benefit is situational: if I can't get owl help, there would otherwise be no place to hide, but there is a source of light obscurement, turning that first shot from no advantage to advantage is worth just as much all by itself as archery style (about 7 extra eDPR). But that's probably not very common. </p><p></p><p>If there would have been hiding available anyway, then Skulker gives advantage on the second shot if the first one misses. We can math that:</p><p></p><p>* With advantage on the first shot only, there's a 27% chance the first shot misses, and a 12% chance of hitting zero times, meaning the expected damage from sneak attack is 22.</p><p>* Going from no advantage to advantage is worth about 7 eDPR. That means skulker increases the expected damage on the second shot by 0.27 * 7 = 1.9.</p><p>* The chance that the first two shots both miss is 8%. So skulker adds 0.08 * 7 = 0.6 expected damage to the third shot.</p><p>* The chance that we hit zero times goes down to 5% with skulker, so the expected damage from sneak attack goes up by 1.9.</p><p>* So all together, if Skulker enables us to hide when we couldn't otherwise, it's worth about 11.5 damage. If we could have hidden anyway we've gained about 4.5 expected damage from Skulker.</p><p>* All of this assumes we always qualify for sneak attack on every shot. In situations where the target doesn't have an adjacent enemy, skulker helps qualify for sneak attack not just land it; archery style doesn't do that.</p><p></p><p>So I think the bottom line is that getting archery style may be a bit better than skulker from a DPR perspective alone if we don't expect it to enable hiding very often and if we're not worried about not qualifying for sneak attack. But skulker also can enable magical ambush sometimes, which is worth a lot on its own. All together, this leads me to prefer picking up skulker to taking that single fighter level.</p><p></p><p>Of course, a second level for action surge is a whole other ball of wax.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Esker, post: 7590560, member: 6966824"] Thanks! Yeah, it's something I've thought about, for sure. If it would come at the cost of a +2 DEX though it's only a net +1 to hit, at the cost of a bit of damage per hit, +1 AC, etc. Let's assume 18 DEX, sharpshooter + crossbow expert at Rogue 11 (so 6d6 sneak attack), vs an enemy with AC 20, and compare archery fighting style to +2 DEX. We'll do three attacks and assume no plus modifier on the weapon. * Baseline with no advantage: it's slightly better not to use power attacks since the chance that they would all miss is too high. 33.7 expected DPR. * Baseline with advantage on the first shot: probably want to power attack only on the first shot; the mean damage is about the same either way, but I'd rather have the lower variance resulting from regular attacks. 43.7 expected DPR. * Baseline with advantage on all attacks: power attacks all the way, for 60.5 expected DPR. Next, assume we take Rogue 12 for +2 to DEX. * No advantage: No power attacks, for 37.1 expected DPR. The DEX was worth 3.4 DPR. * Advantage on 1st: Now you get a couple of points of DPR by using power attacks every time. Not clear it's worth the variance, but 49.3 expected DPR. The DEX was worth 5.6 DPR. * Advantage on all: Power attacks all the way, for 66.4 eDPR. The DEX was worth 5.9. Instead, suppose we take Fighter 1 for archery style: * Without advantage: we get up to 40.0 eDPR, an additional 2.9 over the ASI. * Advantage on 1st: 51.3 eDPR, 1.8 more than the ASI. * Advantage on All: 67.2 eDPR, 0.8 more than the ASI. So archery style by itself has pretty meager returns if we forego an ASI for it; not worth giving up the other benefits of dexterity, IMO. Now of course there was another feat in there. If that feat was Skulker, the benefits of archery go down further, since we will more often push advantage from the first attack to the second. However, we could take +2 DEX at 18 and then a fighter level, and not take Skulker. In that case, archery nets about 7 extra eDPR across all advantage statuses. Now we want to compare that to the value of Skulker. It's hard to measure the DPR value of Skulker, since its benefit is situational: if I can't get owl help, there would otherwise be no place to hide, but there is a source of light obscurement, turning that first shot from no advantage to advantage is worth just as much all by itself as archery style (about 7 extra eDPR). But that's probably not very common. If there would have been hiding available anyway, then Skulker gives advantage on the second shot if the first one misses. We can math that: * With advantage on the first shot only, there's a 27% chance the first shot misses, and a 12% chance of hitting zero times, meaning the expected damage from sneak attack is 22. * Going from no advantage to advantage is worth about 7 eDPR. That means skulker increases the expected damage on the second shot by 0.27 * 7 = 1.9. * The chance that the first two shots both miss is 8%. So skulker adds 0.08 * 7 = 0.6 expected damage to the third shot. * The chance that we hit zero times goes down to 5% with skulker, so the expected damage from sneak attack goes up by 1.9. * So all together, if Skulker enables us to hide when we couldn't otherwise, it's worth about 11.5 damage. If we could have hidden anyway we've gained about 4.5 expected damage from Skulker. * All of this assumes we always qualify for sneak attack on every shot. In situations where the target doesn't have an adjacent enemy, skulker helps qualify for sneak attack not just land it; archery style doesn't do that. So I think the bottom line is that getting archery style may be a bit better than skulker from a DPR perspective alone if we don't expect it to enable hiding very often and if we're not worried about not qualifying for sneak attack. But skulker also can enable magical ambush sometimes, which is worth a lot on its own. All together, this leads me to prefer picking up skulker to taking that single fighter level. Of course, a second level for action surge is a whole other ball of wax. [/QUOTE]
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