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<blockquote data-quote="Mallus" data-source="post: 6109342" data-attributes="member: 3887"><p>Right. </p><p></p><p>I'm also operating under the assumption the $6b figure is absurdly low, given the scale of the endeavor. A crewed Mars mission, maybe even with a fancy little lander, for $6b -- that I can see. Though even for that markedly less ambitious project I'd be shocked --shocked-- if the cost overruns didn't end up dwarfing the original estimate. </p><p></p><p>I'll say it again, 6 billion for this is ridiculous. </p><p></p><p>The trip is the easy part (note: it's in no way actually easy). It's the keeping the people alive on Mars that's the sticky wicket. You either need the means to continually rain supplies on them, or you need to ship them over with everything the need to survive: tons and tons of materials, basic supplies, redundant complex equipment in staggering quantities (because there's neither fabrication infrastructure nor an easy escape capsule back to terra firma on the angry red planet). </p><p></p><p>What's the cost of landing a kilogram on the surface of Mars? (a kilo on non-living matter we're not also trying to keep alive in perpetuity, I might add). </p><p></p><p>As for non-governmental funding: simple question - where is the profit motive in this? A venture like this has no short-term upside (there are cheaper reality shows to produce...). Any economic gains are medium-to-long term at best. And as far as I know, most businesses aren't fond of gigantic long-term R&D projects with no clear revenue streams. There's a reason why so much 20th century technological innovation -- including, well, spaceflight-- came from publicly-funded government projects, fueled, unfortunately by the Cold War and the subsequent rampant US militarism (without the Ruskies to beat, I don't we'd have gone to the Moon in 1969).</p><p></p><p>I suppose a group of space-minded plutocrats could plunk down sizable chucks of their personal fortunes FOR SPACE! But if that's the case, I hope they choose to fund Dr. Ellie Arroway's Gyroscope Wormhole Machine instead <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" />!</p><p></p><p>I'm saddened to find myself being so harsh here. I want a Mars-base, too. And prototype starships! But thinking you can do engineering on this scale privately... it's too much to believe.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mallus, post: 6109342, member: 3887"] Right. I'm also operating under the assumption the $6b figure is absurdly low, given the scale of the endeavor. A crewed Mars mission, maybe even with a fancy little lander, for $6b -- that I can see. Though even for that markedly less ambitious project I'd be shocked --shocked-- if the cost overruns didn't end up dwarfing the original estimate. I'll say it again, 6 billion for this is ridiculous. The trip is the easy part (note: it's in no way actually easy). It's the keeping the people alive on Mars that's the sticky wicket. You either need the means to continually rain supplies on them, or you need to ship them over with everything the need to survive: tons and tons of materials, basic supplies, redundant complex equipment in staggering quantities (because there's neither fabrication infrastructure nor an easy escape capsule back to terra firma on the angry red planet). What's the cost of landing a kilogram on the surface of Mars? (a kilo on non-living matter we're not also trying to keep alive in perpetuity, I might add). As for non-governmental funding: simple question - where is the profit motive in this? A venture like this has no short-term upside (there are cheaper reality shows to produce...). Any economic gains are medium-to-long term at best. And as far as I know, most businesses aren't fond of gigantic long-term R&D projects with no clear revenue streams. There's a reason why so much 20th century technological innovation -- including, well, spaceflight-- came from publicly-funded government projects, fueled, unfortunately by the Cold War and the subsequent rampant US militarism (without the Ruskies to beat, I don't we'd have gone to the Moon in 1969). I suppose a group of space-minded plutocrats could plunk down sizable chucks of their personal fortunes FOR SPACE! But if that's the case, I hope they choose to fund Dr. Ellie Arroway's Gyroscope Wormhole Machine instead :)! I'm saddened to find myself being so harsh here. I want a Mars-base, too. And prototype starships! But thinking you can do engineering on this scale privately... it's too much to believe. [/QUOTE]
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