Back on topic;
I can't separate the question of "what will D&D become?" from the question "what is the core strength of the game?"
For me D&D has always been the "generic" fantasy RPG. It is the vanilla canvas that we can use to adjudicate any game we could recognise as "fantasy" and make it work. It is also class based, with a set of core classes and it has a core mechanic of d20 roll high and AC, HP etc.
If we look at the above statement, which most people would probably agree with, then 4E has a serious problem; it is NOT a generic Fantasy RPG anymore.
4E has made a huge mistake IMHO going all "Exalted" with powers without any backstory to explain them. Are we normal humans or not? If we are then how do we heal completely with an extended rest? If we have these powers then why or how do we have them and how did we get them and why does no-one else from our race have them?
4E completely fails to address these questions, probably because the designers wanted to keep D&D generic and not force people into a specific answer to these questions; except that by introducing powers, they already did away with generic D&D and just failed to give us any backstory for it. So to me 4E is like a kind of compromise that doesn't really go far enough or else goes too far.
Since D&D has always been the generic RPG I think 5E ultimately will return to its generic roots because that is what defines this game for most people; if I want to play superhuman characters I play Exalted, if I want to play in a grim gritty world I play Warhammer FRP. I come to D&D because I want a vanilla canvas that I can use to make MY games played MY way come to life.
The reason we are having the 3E/4E and now 5E debate is because D&D no longer supports many people's playstyle. This is because it is less generic and this is essentially because of how "powers" have been implemented. The mechanic is interesting, but is ultimately incompatible with a generic fantasy RPG and with how many people use/used the rules.
Just my 2 pennysworth
I think you're pretty much as wrong as can be, here, with all respect.
I'm not sure where you got the idea that the power system of 4E makes D&D and less "generic". It doesn't.
I'm also not sure where you got the idea that 4E is an Exalted-style game. It's not.
D&D is, and has always been, about heroic characters. The PCs are normal people, in the sense that they aren't necessarily born into a deity-driven destiny, but they're heroes. They aren't necessarily unique, but they are stand-outs. They don't need a special back story to explain each power, just like previous editions of D&D didn't need a back story to explain Wizards adding new spells to their arsenal after reaching a new level. The powers can all be re-flavored to whatever you want if for some reason you don't think there's enough back story to justify their existence.
Are you taking the word "power" literally? These aren't supernatural abilities, necessarily. A rogue's Sly Flourish is just a special technique that he picked up. A Warlord's Inspiring Word is simply his ability to hearten his allies with a rousing cry. An extended rest heals completely because in D&D you aren't assumed to take serious wounds. You either take your punches heroically and suffer superficial injuries that you're able to shrug off after a short while, or you're done in by a particularly devastating attack (and, as a side note, taking multiple days to heal up wasn't any fun anyway). Some other people from your race have these powers - the other heroic adventurers or dark villains. Most people aren't adventurers or villains, though.
D&D was never as "vanilla" as you imply. Powers are simply a natural extension of the spellcasting mechanic to other classes: fun, unique abilities that provide tactically interesting options during combat - options that expand with experience.
D&D now supports just as many peoples' playstyles as previous editions have. The idea that somehow a major shift in philosophy was made that alienated half the gaming population is a myth. There are, and always will be, a minority of people who, for whatever reason, don't like the current edition. There will also always be a group of people who didn't like the
last edition but enjoy the new one. And above all, even if there were a mythical gamer schism, it would not be caused by the lack of "generic-ness" you perceive in 4th Edition.
Just my two cents.
Now, as to the topic of this thread, I think we're going to see a smooth, natural evolution of the hobby. Nothing as extreme as the death of face-to-face tabletop gaming or online components, but a continued progression of both. The online medium will continue to be explored as a tool for facilitating gaming. Mechanically, the class system will remain, powers will make an appearance, and we will not see a return to the caster-dominated system of D&D past. Rules will remain tight, and I expect that the novel idea of skill challenges will be worked on heavily in order to make it better.
All in all, I expect 5th Edition to be an incrementally smaller change from 4E than 4E was from 3.5E.
