The 3.5 renaissance!

BryonD · Mar 11, 2009

Mercurius said:
I dunno, it still seems like putting off the inevitable: 3.5 entering the closet of older versions of D&D with a slowly dwindling (and graying) fan base.

I think the OGL will set 3.5 apart from the other versions.
Inevitable is a pretty big word, of course eventually something better will come along. Technology changes, if nothing else, will force that.
But the established pattern of games doesn't automatically mean that others will follow. A different variable means a different path, and the OGL is a huge variable.

4E is a fundamentally different approach to the idea. Ultimately, I don't think it will play that big a role in 3E's demise. 3E is a decade on now. It was very clearly losing steam well before 4e was announced. Yeah, the new shiny drew the attention away from the old game and any old game is going to have trouble getting that back. But, the backlash on 4E seems to be revitalizing 3E if anything. It doesn't make it less inevitable that it will eventually go down. Of course it will. So will 4E. But I think 4E has actually delayed the inevitable, not spurred it on.

And, as an aside, 3E will outlast 4E. That isn't an edition war comment, just a simple observation. In a few years 5E will come along. And 4E will go in a box. The 3E/OGL community may be tiny at that point, but it will handle edition cycles far better than 4e.

The main problem for it being that any new blood that comes in will play the newest edition of D&D, which is 4e--or at least the vast majority will (sure, some will join Pathfinder groups, but most who come in will buy what is on the shelves at Borders or B&N, and that is 4e). The only hope for 3.5 actually significantly growing again is if Pathfinder really takes off and starts its own "lineage", even with later editions (just imagine the hoopla when Pathfinder 2ed comes out in a few years!). The idea of a popular 2nd fiddle fantasy RPG interests me--none, over the years, have really succeeded beyond cult status (Rolemaster, Runequest, Ars Magica, etc)--and I think Pathfinder has a chance to do it. But it would have to pull of a hat-trick of taking on its own identity and staying close to D&D-feel, both at the same time.

The point being, for an RPG (or any commodity, really) to thrive in any way, it has to grow. It cannot just maintain, because maintaining is stagnation and stagnation leads to gradually decay. While I currently play and enjoy 4e (with some qualms, which I hope to houserulify eventually), I would like to see Pathfinder succeed: Not only am I intrigued by the idea of how a 2nd fiddle fantasy RPG would effect D&D (maybe serve to make it even better?), but I love the idea that there are a diversity of versions being played. However, I get the sense that this recent "Renaissance" is more of a re-balancing; it is the "backwash" of folks who tried and didn't like 4e. That is nice in the short-term, and will lead to a lot of Pathfinder sales, but eventually the question has to be asked: Where are the new players going to come from? Let's say that 10% of 4e converts re-converted to 3.5/Pathfinder; that's a nice chunk of cash to spend, but it probably won't grow larger unless Paizo sells enough Pathfinder and invests in getting it into B&N and Borders.

I am curious if anyone knows what percentage of active D&D players switched to 4e and stayed, and how that compares to the other edition changes. My guess is that it is a smaller percentage than with 3e, although still the majority and perhaps greater in number.

I'm not convinced that 4E will do nearly as good a job at keeping the new blood. I think 4E will get fans, and a significant fraction will sooner rather than later move on.
I'm also convinced that the numbers are larger than your guesses. We are less than a year in and 4e attrition is already showing.

DaveMage · Mar 11, 2009

Aberzanzorax said:
And let us not forget Necromancer Games supporting both Pathfiner AND 4e!

Yep. Will be interesting to hear how that works out.

I'm A Banana · Mar 11, 2009

First point: The new players might join into PF/3e, not 4e.

New players get into whatever the group they plug into is playing. THAT is how you grow the fan base -- through existing groups.

Converting existing groups requires significantly more effort.

I think it's wrong to assume that 4e is the "edition for newbs." The edition that gets new players will be whatever edition is played, really.

Secondly:

That some would stay behind and continue to produce products for those that wouldn't switch?

The prediction, IIRC, was that the OGL meant that third parties would support 3e, if 4e became more restrictive, because 3e can't be taken away from them. 3e and the SRD is too good. Even if 4e is a better game, 3e is easier to enter into, easier to produce content for. The prediction was that without the steering force of Wizards, there would be an intirim period while the third parties sorted out a new "leader" for the industry, but that 3e would continue to be D&D, whatever WotC produced, that 4e would have to compete with 3e directly, and that 3e wouldn't die a quiet death, if WotC chose to go more restrictive with 4e.

That period was shortened when Paizo, one of the biggest third parties, picked up the Pathfinder idea and ran with it. There's a leader for 3e stuff, and it's Paizo.

The industry is looking a lot like Wizards + a few vs. Everyone Else, and some folks (like Necromancer) have their feet in both camps.

Perhaps we can hope that 5e heals this rift by going open again, but...well, I'm dubious.

cangrejoide · Mar 11, 2009

bouncyhead said:
That's very difficult to say. There have been a couple of polls on ENWorld that give (to me) very surprising results. .

PLEASE, do not base your opinion on online polls.

From this forum nor any other forum.

cangrejoide · Mar 11, 2009

Jack99 said:
Doubtful. Paizo saw an opportunity to make more money by staying behind, well knowing that at every edition change, a decent amount of gamers had chosen to stick with the old version of the game. I think that even if 4e had been released under the OGL, they would still have stuck with 3.5.

Edit: Just wanted to add that I think that Paizo did the right thing for them. I also think it's great that those who chose to stay with 3.5 have a company that produces high quality products for them. I mean, I know exactly how much it sucks to be stuck with an edition that you do not like and no official/high quality products being made for your favorite edition.

I never said Paizo made a bad choice, as a matter of fact they made the best choice for them. If they can harness a good chunk of disgruntled 3E players as a loyal fan base, they are set for life.

Hey it worked and still works for Palladium.

hexgrid · Mar 11, 2009

BryonD said:
And, as an aside, 3E will outlast 4E. That isn't an edition war comment, just a simple observation. In a few years 5E will come along. And 4E will go in a box.

I doubt this. OD&D, BD&D, 1e and 2e all still have players, even through none we're open. The release of 5e will create a new generation of grognards who think that 4e was the last true edition of D&D.

Wulf Ratbane · Mar 11, 2009

Darrin Drader said:
Back around 2000, Ryan Dancey predicted that this would happen if Wizards walked away from the OGL and the core game established by 3rd edition.

Yep. 4th edition is competing with 3rd edition-- and whatever the open source version of the game transitions to, such as Pathfinder-- forever.

4e will outperform 3e/Pathfinder-- simply on the basis of 4e being available in Barnes and Noble-- in the same way that mass market CDs sitting on the shelf in Wal-Mart have an advantage over mp3s and other new media forms of self-publishing.

Jack99 said:
I think that even if 4e had been released under the OGL, Paizo would still have stuck with 3.5.

LOL.

Jack99 · Mar 11, 2009

Wulf Ratbane said:
LOL.

When you have 22 full-time employees, it's all about the money.

cangrejoide · Mar 11, 2009

BryonD said:
And, as an aside, 3E will outlast 4E. That isn't an edition war comment, just a simple observation. In a few years 5E will come along. And 4E will go in a box. The 3E/OGL community may be tiny at that point, but it will handle edition cycles far better than 4e.

Always the older edition will outlast the newest one, heck 1st AD&D has outlasted all the current editions. 4E wont go into a box, nor will any previous edition. As long as there is a fan base the game will live on.

hexgrid said:
I doubt this. OD&D, BD&D, 1e and 2e all still have players, even through none we're open. The release of 5e will create a new generation of grognards who think that 4e was the last true edition of D&D.

/Cylon voiceover: everything that has happened will happen again.

Aberzanzorax · Mar 11, 2009

I'm not ByronD, but I'd guess he was saying that shortly after 5th edition comes out, third edition will have new products made for it. 4th edition? Maybe, but likely fewer than 3rd.

I'd agree with that statement (you know, the one that I made but attributed to ByronD

). I think it is simply a matter of 1. The openness of the OGL. and 2. The "Kill clause" of the SRD that will make it really hard to publish 4e when 5e comes out.

The 3.5 renaissance!

BryonD

Hero

DaveMage

Slumbering in Tsar

I'm A Banana

Potassium-Rich

cangrejoide

First Post

cangrejoide

First Post

hexgrid

Explorer

Wulf Ratbane

Adventurer

Jack99

Adventurer

cangrejoide

First Post

Aberzanzorax

Hero

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