Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

Gothmog

First Post
I read that a lot from posters on both "sides" but... how so?

I mean, I don't know how well 4e is doing (neither does anyone here I think) and I'm not praying for its demise or obsessed with it, but how is a game i dislike being successful good for me?

The better it sells, the more it will influence other games and the longer i'll have to wait for a new edition (possibly one I do like.)
4e isn't "the gaming industry" and if it fails and nothing takes its place (which I doubt) I'm still not losing anything.

Other folks have answered this before (and probably more eloquently than me), but I'll give it a shot.

D&D always has been the most recognizable brand name in RPGs, regardless of which company has had the rights to it. It has always had the greatest amount of resources available to it, the name recognition, and market penetration. When someone thinks of RPGs, most likely D&D is the first thing that enters their heads.

If D&D were to fail, most gamers wouldn't know there are alternatives out there, and certainly far fewer new gamers would be attracted to the hobby. We have to face the fact that those of us who frequent message boards are not "typical" gamers- we're the fanatics, the ones who follow the trends and development of RPGs. Most people who play tabletop RPGs never even visit a forum site. D&D is the "gateway game" for many folks by name recognition alone, who eventually branch out and try other systems they may or may not stick with in the long term. If 4e D&D fails, for all intents and purposes, tabletop RPGs are dead in the public eye, and as a result, fewer people will be buying the RPGs of other publishers. Most will probably just quit gaming. As sales dwindle, other RPG companies will begin to fold, as they cannot maintain their razor-thin profit margins, and fairly soon there simply wouldn't be anyone able to produce RPGs as a viable business. In addition, tabletop RPGs already have to fight with MMOs for a segment of the player base (especially younger players), so if D&D were suddenly to be gone, most people who didn't know other RPGs were available would most likely switch to MMO play, which frankly is faster to get into and you can play according to YOUR schedule and whims, and is much flashier than tabletop RPGs. The few people who come to gaming via MMOs are probably told that "D&D is the precursor to MMOs", and check it out due to curiousity to see where their favorite online games roots came from.

So without D&D, Paizo, Green Ronin, FFG, and many other publishers are simply DEAD (the possible exception being White Wolf). Even without competition from D&D, the other companies I mentioned simply don't have the resources to flood the market with enough product to really make a difference, and tabletop gaming would most likely die a slow, lingering death over about a 5-10 year period.

Personally, I disliked 3.0 and 3.5, but I knew a lot of people enjoyed it, and I didn't wish for its demise like some people do for 4e today. Instead I branched out and discovered new games during its run that I enjoyed more (WHFRP2, Savage Worlds, nWoD), and I'm better off for it, as are the companies whose products I purchased. 4e has returned D&D to a game my group and I enjoy, and fans of 3.x still have tons of published materials from its run, as well as Pathfinder to explore. What doesn't make sense to me is why quite a few people rant and rave about having D&D cater to their exact whims, when there are other games that DO cater to them already in existence, but which they refuse to investigate further. That smacks of some people trying to dictate how everbody else should play, and that they are trying to determine what is "badwrongfun" for everyone. What is good for one person's specific concept of what D&D should be isn't always the best thing for the long-term health of the hobby.
 
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1) I was refuting Rodrigo's casual claim that making the top 15 in non-fiction is not at all remarkable. That no 3.5e supplement made it implies that the top 15 is a bit harder to crack than he would imply.

2) Since PHB2 is #14 in the non-fiction list, it will indeed appear in the archives.


And no, I don't recall any 3.5e supplement cracking the top 15 in non-fiction. But hey, I could be wrong. Anyone know which was the most popular 3.5e supplement?

You've refuted nothing. You've taken a single data point and extrapolated an unverifiable conclusion.

How many other relatively recent D&D books were there? More books divides the market, making it harder for any individual title to score big numbers even if the aggregate sales were spectacular.

What percentage of sales were online vs brick and mortar? It's trivial to pre-order a book online, which inflates early sales numbers.

What time of year was it released? Seasonal variations are pretty noticeable. Complete Warrior was an early December release; that might have meant increased sales (if people were buying it to give for Christmas), it might have deflated sales (people had less disposable income to spend on themselves), or it might have delayed sales (spending your Borders gift certificate you got from grandma).

In other words, making any sort of assertion about the health of 4e based on a blip on a list is an exercise in wish-fullfilment.
 


I mean, I don't know how well 4e is doing (neither does anyone here I think) and I'm not praying for its demise or obsessed with it, but how is a game i dislike being successful good for me?

Because D&D remains the #1 primary gateway product into the industry. The more successful D&D is at drawing new people into the hobby, the more people will gravitate to different games (including games that you like).

This is why it's a pity that there hasn't been a true introductory version of D&D available in nearly 20 years.

D&D's mainstream penetration has been declining ever since they stopped producing a mainstream gateway product. The corrective measure for fixing this seems self-obvious to me, but WotC just keeps up TSR's folly of churning out pay-to-preview products while identifying a 900-page set of $100 rulebooks as the true entry point for the game.

So without D&D, Paizo, Green Ronin, FFG, and many other publishers are simply DEAD...

None of those publishers actually produce D&D-compatible material any more. So your thesis seems a trifle questionable.

What doesn't make sense to me is why quite a few people rant and rave about having D&D cater to their exact whims, when there are other games that DO cater to them already in existence, but which they refuse to investigate further.

Personally I just miss having the D&D trademark on a game that actually plays like D&D. But that's neither here nor there.
 

Gothmog

First Post
None of those publishers actually produce D&D-compatible material any more. So your thesis seems a trifle questionable.

While its true that none of them currently support D&D compatible games anymore, they still indirectly depend on the success of D&D. None of those companies produce games that could be considered introductory games, or that are visible enough that they allow for immediate name recognition with people (with the possible exception of Warhammer and Dark Heresy for FFG). Those companies depend on customers who are already familiar with the roleplaying hobby to be their customers. If the pool of gamers shrinks when D&D is gone, then those companies customer base also shrinks. Since they depend on sales with a much narrower margin for survival than WotC, it wouldn't be long before they were dead in the water too. Hopefully it will never come to that (and I don't even remotely think it will)- I don't want to see anyone making games for a living losing their jobs, dreams, and financial well-being.
 


Lanefan

Victoria Rules
I mean, I don't know how well 4e is doing (neither does anyone here I think) and I'm not praying for its demise or obsessed with it, but how is a game i dislike being successful good for me?
Because it draws people into gaming at all; thus providing more potential players for your edition-x game down the road.

3e, for all its many other failings, was great for that. The release of 3e rebooted gaming's visibility and drew lots and lots of new players in. I've been merrily poaching them for my old-school games ever since. :)
The better it sells, the more it will influence other games ...
::shrug:: Fine. Over time, people will strip out the good ideas that 4e presents (and there are a few, if you look carefully), meld them into their own games, and let the rest of 4e fall by the wayside.

Lan-"one must forage where one can"-efan
 


Ariosto

First Post
I literally don't know about the merits of D&D today as a "gateway" -- and I don't think anyone else does either. A lot of what I see suggests that it might mainly be dependent on a shrinking market the very brand loyalty of which makes it a demographic less likely than others to branch out to other games. Moreover, its dominance may be a self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of retailers who don't give other games shelf space.

My FLGS has a lot of shelf space devoted to long-unsold 3E products. I don't think they're likely to be any more desirable to 4E players, and such a track record might make one wary. World of Darkness now gets more shelf space than D&D, and Rifts is roughly on par.

It's not so easy to sell what you don't have, and the variety on offer there is much less than what it once was. There may be a "feedback loop" going on that leaves both WotC and specialist retailers with a skewed perspective.

If the status quo falls, that might actually clear the way for a more vibrant market to emerge.

Again, I literally do not know!
 

Tetsubo

First Post
Removed by Admin. Threadcrapping and trying to incite edition wars get you suspended. ~ PCat
 
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