Pathfinder 1E Paizo Announcement and Prognostication

Dannager · Aug 8, 2011

Mark CMG said:
Just as brand recognition (awareness) does not equate with brand strength, neither does entry point equate with default game.

I'm confused as to what you could possibly think the word "default" to mean if it doesn't mean "What more people think of first," and it doesn't mean "What more people have started with." Even if you take it to mean "What more people are playing right now," D&D is still the top dog, in all likelihood.

You cannot deny that both of the above are appropriate uses of the word "default", so really all you're doing is nitpicking and saying "But D&D isn't the default if you look at it this way and take a handful of anecdotal reports at face value and then extrapolate that beyond what is plainly reasonable!"

Not if another forty percent are drinking Pepsi.

Replace Dr. Pepper with Pepsi and you have the same effect. It wasn't meant to be a realistic analogy, just a way of looking at it that might be easier to understand. We're only talking about two companies and games, here. The rest might as well not exist.

TheAuldGrump · Aug 8, 2011

Dannager said:
If 90% of people start out by drinking Coke, and 30% eventually transition to drinking Dr. Pepper, you still want to be Coke. By a long shot.

And if 90% of folks who own a car originally owned a bicycle then would you rather be Schwinn than Ford?

Analogies only go so far... if 50% of the market has decided that Dr. Pepper is Liquid Sunshine (TM) and switch away from Coke then it doesn't look good for Coke, especially if Coke belongs to Amhauser Busch.

The Auld Grump

Mark CMG · Aug 8, 2011

Dannager said:
I'm confused as to what you could possibly think the word "default" to mean if it doesn't mean "What more people think of first," (. . .)

It doesn't.

Dannager said:
(. . .) and it doesn't mean "What more people have started with."

It doesn't.

Dannager said:
Even if you take it to mean "What more people are playing right now,"(. . .)

That's what it would mean except . . .

Dannager said:
(. . .) D&D is still the top dog, in all likelihood.

That's the problematic assumption seemingly unsupported by current available data.

Dannager said:
You cannot deny that both of the above are appropriate uses of the word "default", (. . .)

The last of the above is appropriate usage wrongly applied.

Dannager said:
(. . .) so really all you're doing is nitpicking (. . .)

Not precisely. I was narrowing down the wrong uses from the correct usage so that I could explain why I believe that you are incorrect in jumping from your assumption to your assertion.

Dannager said:
(. . .) and saying "But D&D isn't the default if you look at it this way and take a handful of anecdotal reports at face value and then extrapolate that beyond what is plainly reasonable!"

You seem to be misusing additional words beyond the scope of my original exception to your assertion but, again, if you read my posts in the tangent between Bryon and myself you will find I have expressed my position more fully (though, not surprisingly, differently from your fake quote).

Dannager said:
Replace Dr. Pepper with Pepsi and you have the same effect. It wasn't meant to be a realistic analogy, just a way of looking at it that might be easier to understand. We're only talking about two companies and games, here. The rest might as well not exist.

Do you understand the the word "another" in the phrase "Not if another forty percent are drinking Pepsi." meant that if Dr Pepper had thirty percent and Pepsi had forty percent, that would only leave thirty percent for Coke?

Dannager · Aug 8, 2011

TheAuldGrump said:
And if 90% of folks who own a car originally owned a bicycle then would you rather be Schwinn than Ford?

The transition from a bicycle to a car is not analogous to the transition between D&D and Pathfinder in the same way that the transition between Coke and Dr. Pepper is. The analogy linking the latter two works because these are changes rooted primarily in preference as opposed to practicality. You can't change the relationship that holds the analogy together like that.

Analogies only go so far...

That's why they are used to assist in understanding, rather than to prove a point. A couple of you are acting like you can mess with the analogy in order to discredit the underlying argument, and that's not so.

if 50% of the market has decided that Dr. Pepper is Liquid Sunshine (TM) and switch away from Coke then it doesn't look good for Coke, especially if Coke belongs to Amhauser Busch.

And that's fine. But it's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about consumers who make a gradual switch to a different product because of a (typically) taste-based preference for that product, and why it's better to be the guy at the entry point than the guy who gets the entry point guy's leftovers.

Dannager · Aug 8, 2011

Mark CMG said:
It doesn't.

It doesn't.

Okay, except that it totally does. Both of those definitions are perfectly acceptable uses of the word "default". You wanting me to be using the word for one of its many meanings doesn't mean that I'm going to.

That's what it would mean except . . .

That's the problematic assumption seemingly unsupported by current available data.

D&D has, for the past decade or so, been top dog. I have seen no evidence that suggests that is no longer the case. I have seen evidence that suggests (but does not conclusively show) that Pathfinder is gaining ground on D&D, but none that suggests it has overtaken it in terms of what people are playing now.

In absence of evidence contradicting the assumption, I'm going to assume that what held true five minutes ago holds true now. I'm not saying it won't change, but only that it hasn't changed yet.

Not precisely. I was narrowing down the wrong uses from the correct usage so that I could explain why I believe that you are incorrect in jumping from your assumption to your assertion.

Except you're just using a completely different definition of the word "default" than I am. I'm not arguing that D&D is the default in the sense that it's what most people are playing. I think that's probably true, because it's been true and I haven't seen evidence that this is no longer the case, but it doesn't matter because that's not the use of the word "default" that I'm talking about anyway, and damn if I haven't been totally clear about that.

Do you understand the the word "another" in the phrase "Not if another forty percent are drinking Pepsi." meant that if Dr Pepper had thirty percent and Pepsi had forty percent, that would only leave thirty percent for Coke?

Yes. That's why I said "replace Dr. Pepper with Pepsi," and not "replace Pepsi with Dr. Pepper". But that's not even the point.

I'm telling you that I don't care what you do with your own analogy. I explained mine, and I think it's perfectly suitable to help draw the connection I was trying to explain (that being the entry point is, all else being equal, better than being the guy who eventually gets some of the market), and you altering that analogy to prove something - and I'm not sure what, since now your analogy features three major players and as far as I can tell it's still just Paizo and WotC, the rest is the soda pop equivalent of Jolt - that is tangential at best to what we've been discussing.

Now for crying out loud, can we stop arguing over what I mean when I use the word "default"? This is a page of threadjack that really didn't need to happen.

Mark CMG · Aug 8, 2011

Dannager said:
Okay, except that it totally does.

Not in this sentence.

Dannager said:
You're dedicated enough to actively explore other options, and you clearly believe that you would be able to find a group of people comfortable enough with also exploring those options to find a game that you like better than the "default" choice.

Claiming that it is the default game they choose to play is not the same as claiming it is the first game they think of nor the first game they try.

Dannager said:
Except you're just using a completely different definition of the word "default" than I am. I'm not arguing that D&D is the default in the sense that it's what most people are playing.

It sure appeared that way but I am content to leave what we wrote as what we meant.

Dannager · Aug 8, 2011

Mark CMG said:
Claiming that it is the default game they choose to play is not the same as claiming it is the first game they think of nor the first game they try.

Haha, that sentence is discussing the hypothetical absence of Pathfinder from the gaming scene, which inarguably would make D&D the "default" even using your personal favorite contextual definition of the word.

I don't really know what you're trying to show here. How is this not you just nitpicking for its own sake?

Mark CMG · Aug 8, 2011

Dannager said:
Haha, that sentence is discussing the hypothetical absence of Pathfinder from the gaming scene, which inarguably would make D&D the "default" even using your personal favorite contextual definition of the word.

You aren't really just now realizing that was the sentence and use of "default" that was under discussion this entire time, are you? I'm impressed by your ability to carry on an argument when not realizing what was being discussed. Your newest explanation doesn't quite work either, but I leave the field to you.

Dannager · Aug 8, 2011

Mark CMG said:
You aren't really just now realizing that was the sentence and use of "default" that was under discussion this entire time, are you? I'm impressed by your ability to carry on an argument when not realizing what was being discussed. Your newest explanation doesn't quite work either, but I leave the field to you.

Oh good lord.

Me: "Pathfinder is partly responsible for the D&D market split."

BryonD: "No it's not. I wouldn't be playing 4e anyway."

Me: "That's fine, if your group is comfy playing a game other than the 'default' tabletop RPG."

Mark CMG: "D&D isn't the default TTRPG."

Me: "Sure it is, it's got the most brand awareness and it's where most people started."

Mark CMG: "That's not what default means. What people are playing matters more."

Me: "I think more people still play D&D, but it doesn't matter because that's not what I was talking about."

Mark CMG: "Sure you were, here's what you said: {insert me talking to BryonD}"

Me: "Nope, still not what I was talking about, but funny you should bring that up since I was talking about a situation in which D&D totally would be the default under even your definition anyway."

I think that about tl;dr's the last page and a half.

TheAuldGrump · Aug 8, 2011

Dannager said:
The transition from a bicycle to a car is not analogous to the transition between D&D and Pathfinder in the same way that the transition between Coke and Dr. Pepper is. The analogy linking the latter two works because these are changes rooted primarily in preference as opposed to practicality. You can't change the relationship that holds the analogy together like that.

My point is that your analogy does not in fact work, and, further, is unnecessary - just say D&D and Pathfinder, comparing them to sodas, football teams, boardgames, automobiles, etc. is an unnecessary and obfuscating encumbrance. Possibly intended to conceal rather than enlighten.

That's why they are used to assist in understanding, rather than to prove a point. A couple of you are acting like you can mess with the analogy in order to discredit the underlying argument, and that's not so.

A good analogy may aid in consideration, however these were not such gnostic comparisons. The exact same conversation could have been had just saying D&D and Pathfinder with no loss of understanding.

And that's fine. But it's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about consumers who make a gradual switch to a different product because of a (typically) taste-based preference for that product, and why it's better to be the guy at the entry point than the guy who gets the entry point guy's leftovers.

And many would, to use your own analogy, compare 4e to Coke II, and have. A comparison that I feel helps your analogy at the cost of your point.

WotC did and Coke both did studies that convinced them that they were correct in making changes to a formula that was working, and both ended up helping their competition at the cost of their own success.

On the shiny, happy side, I would not compare 4e to Vista - Microsoft's own studies showed discontent early on, but they pressed on regardless. WotC did listen to their groups, but....

One thing that helps WotC in this instance is that the numbers do not need to add up to 100%, but are probably closer to 120% - a fair number of folks, nonpartisans if you will, own both. A greater number own 3.X and PFRPG, 3.X and 4e, or all three.

As for name recognition... I have heard folks calling Pathfinder D&D, and have heard a clerk, when asked what Pathfinder was, reply 'it's pretty much D&D.' He then went on to say that it was closer to the D&D he had played than 4e was.

He was apparently convincing, the customer left with the Core, the APG, and the Bestiary.

The problem with becoming synonymous with something is that the term can become generic. Zipper being a case in point. I have heard gaming conventions called D&D conventions, as an example. Most zip fasteners are not made by Zipper, but most folks still call them zippers.

The Auld Grump