Pathfinder 1E Paizo Announcement and Prognostication

[BryonD]

I believe that is based on a quote from Mearls' livejournal (I think this is the link) which said that the initial print run size for 4E was greater than that for 3.5, which was greater than that of 3.0.

Now, how that compared over the life of the edition is a different thing than initial print run. But it is my understanding that 4E sold very well to start, and tended to receive good sales for PHB2, PHB3, and other core books - while the later supplements (Martial Power 2, etc) were where the performance was somewhat disappointing. (And, I'm guessing, that ties in heavily to the growing use of DDI).

It is also my understanding that 4E sold like gangbusters out of the gates. There was a ton of publicity and it seems everyone and his brother decided to check it out for themselves.

IMO that just makes the current circumstance that much more stark.

But it is true that the initial run sold HUGE. (To the best of my knowledge, which in this case seems pretty solid)

 

[TheAuldGrump]

Back in 2008:

ICv2 - D&D 4E Back to Press


A WotC spokesperson has informed ICv2 that Dungeons & Dragons 4th Edition has already gone back to press more than a week before its scheduled street date next Friday, June 6th. Sell-in of 4th Edition has “far exceeded expectations” and even though the initial print run for 4th Edition was 50% higher than the order for the previous D&D 3.5 Edition, WotC has now realized that it is necessary to go back to press to meet anticipated reorder demand.




So, it was larger than the initial run of 3.5 in 2003. Is it reasonable to infer that had it been larger than the run of 3.0 they would have said that?

The problem is with returns - print runs are calculated on preorders by distributors. I know that the local Borders had an enormous pile of the first printing (second printing?) of 4e books - it sold well, but they over ordered, in part because they had been caught short by 3.5. Order 50, sell 20, return 30 does not help much. But they ordered that initial pile expecting returns, I do not know if those initial returns were above expectations or not.

Those books probably did sell eventually - just not right away. Undamaged hardcovers can reenter the distribution stream. I am sure that WotC has cycled through several runs since - while it had, perhaps, a larger than expected number of returns, it was still wildly successful. Stores often over order on what they expect to be big sellers, and the number sold was very impressive, just maybe not as enormous as they had hoped.

Later books have been somewhat less successful, not all of them, but there are some that just do not move at all.

Returns are the Devil. Some mainstream fiction might already have been remaindered if they had the kinds of returns I saw for 4e. (Christmas was bad. Very bad. I hate seeing covers torn off of paperback books for return. )

So far Pathfinder seems to have avoided this, in part because their hardcover release schedule has been much more conservative than WotC's, back when 4e was new and shiny. And in part because Borders has not brought in 40 copies of the Core, but has been getting reasonable numbers and steadily selling through.

And PFRPG Core also sold through its initial, though much smaller, print run.

The Auld Grump

 

[czak]

I'd call that a weak inference. It is fairly common to only compare to most recent history, instead of cataloging comparisons to several historical events.

It's probably a very weak inference - I was operating under the assumption that the 3.0 initial print run was larger than the 3.5 run, and that you would want to compare back to the largest run possible rather than just the most recent. But that post of mearls' blog would indicate that the 3.5 run was larger.

 

[Shemeska]

WotC announced a while back that the print run they sold through of the 4e core books was larger than the number of core books sold during 3e. Or that it was the largest print run of D&D books ever. Or something. It was a while ago, I don't really remember that well.

IIRC what they said was that the first print run was larger than the first print run of prior editions. After that they didn't ever really touch on the topic again to brag about sales. They were very careful about the wording and what they actually said. It said nothing about the total number of print runs or total sales across those print runs.

I remember talking about the rate of 3e to 4e conversion in that first year with someone now no longer at WotC, and at the time their estimate was 30-40%. No idea how the market evolved since then, or if the market contraction of 3e players not moving into 4e was tempered somewhat by new to D&D players going to 4e. Few people have those numbers, and I'm not one of them.

 

[dagger]

Yeah. The first run sales would have been built on the 3E fanbase.

That would be me and 6 other gamers I play with....none since.

 

[Jason Bulmahn]

(Despite the sniping and semantics arguments going on here, I thought I throw in my two cents)

Wow,

I have not looked at that original thread in a long time. Boy did it make my stomach churn. Fortunately, being deep into our fourth print run of the core rulebook makes it all feel better. But in the end, folks should just play the game they like. The rest is a bunch of inside baseball that will all work itself out.

Jason Bulmahn
Lead Designer
Paizo Publishing
Lead

 

[Mournblade94]

(Despite the sniping and semantics arguments going on here, I thought I throw in my two cents)

Wow,

I have not looked at that original thread in a long time. Boy did it make my stomach churn. Fortunately, being deep into our fourth print run of the core rulebook makes it all feel better. But in the end, folks should just play the game they like. The rest is a bunch of inside baseball that will all work itself out.

Jason Bulmahn
Lead Designer
Paizo Publishing
Lead

Awesome job on Brinewall Legacy by the way! You guys are really kicking arse!!!

 

[JoeGKushner]

Back in 2008:

ICv2 - D&D 4E Back to Press


A WotC spokesperson has informed ICv2 that Dungeons & Dragons 4th Edition has already gone back to press more than a week before its scheduled street date next Friday, June 6th. Sell-in of 4th Edition has “far exceeded expectations” and even though the initial print run for 4th Edition was 50% higher than the order for the previous D&D 3.5 Edition, WotC has now realized that it is necessary to go back to press to meet anticipated reorder demand.




So, it was larger than the initial run of 3.5 in 2003. Is it reasonable to infer that had it been larger than the run of 3.0 they would have said that?

Ironically, this sounds like they printed too much. When asked about future printings of the Player's Handbook with errata, they said it was not going to happen anytime soon because they had so many PHB's in circulation already.