No longer his circus, no longer his monkeys

Umbran · Oct 9, 2015

goldomark said:
That scenario has popped up before under Obama, but hasn't happened. I'll believe it when I'll see it.

I didn't say it was likely, merely that it was technically possible. What it would do to the re-election chances of the GOP members who do it would likely prevent it.

It would lead to a split among Republicans and I'm not sure the fruit is ripe for that.

I think that depends - the fruit is on the verge, and may just need a bigger swat. Should Trump actually win the nomination, something interesting might happen.

But what does it mean when your dream is imagining the girl you like getting a beating from her boyfriend so that she'll fall in love with you? Sounds rather bleak to me.

I'm not sure who "the girl" is in this case. Certainly not the GOP - the Democrats do not like them. They may be willing to work with them.

Kramodlog · Oct 9, 2015

Umbran said:
I didn't say it was likely, merely that it was technically possible.

A lot of things are possible.

I think that depends - the fruit is on the verge, and may just need a bigger swat.

A terrible electoral defeat could be that swat.

Should Trump actually win the nomination, something interesting might happen.

It is more probable that a new Speaker won't be elected for a while. That could mean the debt ceiling not getting raised for a while. This could lead to a terrible electoral defeat.

I'd be curious to know what the presidential candidates would say on the matter.

I'm not sure who "the girl" is in this case. Certainly not the GOP - the Democrats do not like them. They may be willing to work with them.

Metaphors aren't 100% accurate.

Umbran · Oct 9, 2015

goldomark said:
A lot of things are possible.

So?

The role is actually pretty interesting, in that most of its current nature is traditional, rather than legislated. The Speaker, for example, doesn't have to even be a member of the House. The Speaker does not have to be a member of the House majority party (though, getting the role without being such would be terribly difficult).

It is possible, for example, for the House to find a non-partisan outside to do the job. It has never happened before, but would be entirely legal. WHile an unlikely development, it is an interesting one for thought.

A terrible electoral defeat could be that swat.

Yes. But I think a looming electoral disaster might also do the trick.

It is more probable that a new Speaker won't be elected for a while. That could mean the debt ceiling not getting raised for a while. This could lead to a terrible electoral defeat.

Yes, that is certainly a possibility. The last time we faced such issues, the GOP didn't come out looking very good at all.

I'd be curious to know what the presidential candidates would say on the matter.

Probably very little - mucking in on this issue would be extremely politically complicated and risky. I expect they will mostly remain silent, to distance themselves from yet another sign of the party's dysfunction.

Ovinomancer · Oct 9, 2015

Umbran said:
Yes, that is certainly a possibility. The last time we faced such issues, the GOP didn't come out looking very good at all.

The last time we faced such issues, in the next election, the GOP increased it's majority in the House and took the majority in the Senate. I'd hate to see what would happen if such issues went well for the GOP.

Kramodlog · Oct 9, 2015

Umbran said:
The role is actually pretty interesting, in that most of its current nature is traditional, rather than legislated. The Speaker, for example, doesn't have to even be a member of the House. The Speaker does not have to be a member of the House majority party (though, getting the role without being such would be terribly difficult).

It is possible, for example, for the House to find a non-partisan outside to do the job. It has never happened before, but would be entirely legal. WHile an unlikely development, it is an interesting one for thought.

Very similar to how the prime minister and the ministers in the British parlimentary system do not need to be elected to get the job. Like you say, it is tradition that they come from the elected body.

Yes. But I think a looming electoral disaster might also do the trick.

I think denial is too strong among Republicans for "looming" to be sufficiant. They can't even learn from their mistakes as below.

Yes, that is certainly a possibility. The last time we faced such issues, the GOP didn't come out looking very good at all.

And yet here they are again. Amazing. Seriously.

Probably very little - mucking in on this issue would be extremely politically complicated and risky. I expect they will mostly remain silent, to distance themselves from yet another sign of the party's dysfunction.

But journalists will ask them questions. They'll have to say something, even if very vague. Some will say they are in favor, because it will make them look good with the more radical base. Ted Cruz and his stance on the government shutdown comes to mind.

Others just do not know what the debt limit is. http://gawker.com/ben-carson-cant-quite-put-his-finger-on-exactly-what-th-1735348489 He's second or first in polls. Amazing.

Kramodlog · Oct 9, 2015

Ovinomancer said:
The last time we faced such issues, in the next election, the GOP increased it's majority in the House and took the majority in the Senate. I'd hate to see what would happen if such issues went well for the GOP.

Midterm elections favor Republicans as their voter base goes out more to vote. The turn out was only 36,4%. Hard to say the electon reflect the sentiment of the general population. Gerrymandering also favors Republicans in the House since 2010.

Dannyalcatraz · Oct 9, 2015

It is possible, for example, for the House to find a non-partisan outside to do the job. It has never happened before, but would be entirely legal. WHile an unlikely development, it is an interesting one for thought.

Huh- didn't know that. I learned something!

As a tangent, that sort of gives the position something in common with then Pope: most assume that the Pope must be a high ranking priest to be chosen, but this isn't the case. Any Catholic male in good standing with the church may be elected Pope, even if he is not a priest. Nothing like that has happened in centuries, though. (Pope Leo X, 1513.)

tuxgeo · Oct 9, 2015

Given that House membership is not a requirement, maybe Newt Gingrich (remember him?) could sneak back into the position.

If he did, though, the press would call him "The Sneaker of the House."

Umbran · Oct 9, 2015

Ovinomancer said:
The last time we faced such issues, in the next election, the GOP increased it's majority in the House and took the majority in the Senate. I'd hate to see what would happen if such issues went well for the GOP.

Well, there are a couple of effects at play there.

For example: Congressional approval ratings are low - right now they are at about 14% approval, and they were at the same place about this time last year.

However, folks generally *approve* of how their own congresscritter does their job. In September 2014, 54% of polled respondents think their own representation wass doing a good job. Typically, more than half of people think their own Congress members but also think the majority of the members of Congress are corrupt. You see similar skews on who gets attention - special interests or constituents. People generally feel that congress, on the whole, caters to special interests, but their own representative is better than Congress as a whole. Same for being out of touch. So, Congressmen are like kids - everyone thinks their own is above average.

Thus, opinion of the party as a whole is not necessarily related to someone's opinion of their own representation. This is seen in the Tea Party today - they haven't formed their own party, but they don't generally approve of the GOP take on things, enough so that their representatives in Congress have their own caucus.

So, we have the situation where (of course) the GOP doesn't look good to the Democrats. But, to the classic GOP, the Tea Party is a problem. To the Tea Party, the classic GOP is a problem. Nobody really likes the GOP as a whole these days.

Cite for statistics: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx

Ovinomancer · Oct 9, 2015

Umbran said:
Well, there are a couple of effects at play there.

For example: Congressional approval ratings are low - right now they are at about 14% approval, and they were at the same place about this time last year.

However, folks generally *approve* of how their own congresscritter does their job. In September 2014, 54% of polled respondents think their own representation wass doing a good job. Typically, more than half of people think their own Congress members but also think the majority of the members of Congress are corrupt. You see similar skews on who gets attention - special interests or constituents. People generally feel that congress, on the whole, caters to special interests, but their own representative is better than Congress as a whole. Same for being out of touch. So, Congressmen are like kids - everyone thinks their own is above average.

Thus, opinion of the party as a whole is not necessarily related to someone's opinion of their own representation. This is seen in the Tea Party today - they haven't formed their own party, but they don't generally approve of the GOP take on things, enough so that their representatives in Congress have their own caucus.

So, we have the situation where (of course) the GOP doesn't look good to the Democrats. But, to the classic GOP, the Tea Party is a problem. To the Tea Party, the classic GOP is a problem. Nobody really likes the GOP as a whole these days.

Cite for statistics: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx

You've listed a bunch of reasons why things should be bad for the GOP (and Congress in general), but nothing you listed shows how the GOP would be able to improve their situation despite the presumed negative of the debt ceiling crisis. Yet, that's exactly what happened -- the GOP improved their position despite the debt ceiling crisis. So I'm wondering, if you think they did poorly out of the last one, what metric are you using?

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