[GUIDE] Born to be Wild, a sorcerer guide.

Reading about Mirror Image and how much it protects you against the first attack leaves out part of it. If the attack would miss you but would hit your mirror image, then you have chances to lose an image from attacks that would have a 0% chance to hit you. Ignoring the ablative nature of it vs. those types of attacks makes it appear more powerful than it is.

At the least, assume Dragon Bloodline or Mage Armor, which means +3 AC for the caster over the images. That's 15% of all attacks that can take out an image that would have missed in the first place. And it's easy to boost AC from there.

mellored said:

While we are belaboring...
Web, centered on the target, takes extra 10'. The other 10' was going to be spent moving in that direction anyways.
Gust takes an extra 5' side step out and a 5' side step to get back to you = 10'. Of course, that only counts if you are their target. But you can reposition it for next turns.

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If you know which direction it's going, you don't center the web on it.

Still irrelevent. Dex scaling protects you exactly the same amount without it as much as it does with it.
With 1 dex, it can absorb 3 attacks.
With 100 dex, it can absorb 3 attacks.

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With 1 Dex, it absorbs 3 attacks no matter how inaccurate and weak. With 100 Dex, it absorbs three accurate, probably very powerful attacks. That is scaling, my friend. Without that, you would lose images to attacks that would have missed you anyway.

Which is the biggest downside. The fact that it can be wasted.

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I'm sorry, but this really feels like grasping at straws. The biggest downside of mirror image is that it provides the most defense against the earliest attacks? With as brief as combat usually is in this game, that is a strength, not a weakness.

Enemies see you protected and can simply ignore you until it's gone.

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Mirror image just reduced the damage the sorcerer takes by 100%. In practice, I have never seen a DM do this. In fact, I once had a couple of the thugs we were fighting become so frustrated with how difficult I was to hit that they kept targeting me. In practice, I have also only rarely seen a combat last more than a minute.

Or you can cast it, kick down a door, and fine no one on the other side.

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Then I have misjudged the situation. I've seen players do it with dozens of spells.

Nope.
You spent 1 action and a level 2 slot to block block 3 attacks.
They spent 1 action and a level 2 slot to make 3 attacks.

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Their level-2 spell slot bought them 4.57 damage. Mine prevented 10.58, and will most likely have an effect in at least one subsequent round. This is not an equivalence, and it only has the appearance of one because I set up the combatants to be equal. Mirror image will continue to be a 2nd-level spell when it is deflecting multiattacks from a CR 5 cambion, a CR 10 aboleth, or a CR 17 death knight.

However, there's a good chance at least one of their first-turn sorching rays will land an extra 0.5 damage compared to your firebolt (a bit pedantic, yes. But magic missile won't work because you both have shield).

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Which is why I would cast scorching ray right back. Even if he uses shield, he will be half dead when I'm still at 75% health. What does he do then? Another scorching ray? The same casting of mirror image will reduce it to 7.66 average damage, a 49% reduction, even if I don't use shield. 54% of the time, I will still have at least one duplicate left, and the total damage reduction done by that one spell slot is now 18.07. Because it scaled in value with the number of attacks directed at me. (If 18.07 seems impossible because the damage of the average ray is 5.05, bear in mind that that latter number includes the chance to miss. Rays which would have hit me--the rays which the duplicates intercept--average 7.77 damage.) On average, 2.1 rays have now missed, 2.33 have hit illusions, and the remaining 1.57 have hit me.

Cast shatter instead? His spell DC ought to be about 15, while I've got a +4 to my Con save, and that gives me a 50% chance to succeed. 3d8 on a failed save, half on a successful one makes an average damage of 10.125. Mirror image just reduced the damage I took by 33% compared to his unaltered scorching ray, and I still have as many duplicates as I started the round with.

Also, mirror image only works if you know when the gates will open ahead of time. If you cast it, and there's a minute delay, you're out your slot.

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There are so many "if" clauses you can use with any number of spells.

Sleep only works your targets have low HP. If you cast it and don't roll high enough to match anything's HP, you're out your slot.

Suggestion only works if the target can understand you. If you cast it and the target doesn't speak your language, you're out your slot.

Fireball only works if you can see a space more than 20 feet from your party members. If you cast it and there's not enough room--well, you'll still do damage, but you might cause a TPK.

You can do it for virtually any spell in the game. Does mirror image still have value if not cast at the optimal moment? Yes. Is the optimal moment reasonably frequent anyway? Yes.

If mirror image is effective the next round, that means it wasn't the first round.

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Horse hockey! (Yes, I went full Sherman T. Potter.) In the demonstration, it reduced the average incoming damage by 70%. That it will most likely continue reducing damage in subsequent rounds is hardly evidence that it was not effective. Yes, you will sometimes take damage; that's the nature of the game. Show me the 2nd-level, non-concentration spell that protects you from 100% of attacks for the entire combat. Show me the one that is more effective than mirror image against the first attack, the second, the third, the fourth, or the fifth.

Blue said:

Reading about Mirror Image and how much it protects you against the first attack leaves out part of it. If the attack would miss you but would hit your mirror image, then you have chances to lose an image from attacks that would have a 0% chance to hit you. Ignoring the ablative nature of it vs. those types of attacks makes it appear more powerful than it is.

At the least, assume Dragon Bloodline or Mage Armor, which means +3 AC for the caster over the images. That's 15% of all attacks that can take out an image that would have missed in the first place. And it's easy to boost AC from there.

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I won't "assume" the +3 from mage armor, because it is the caster's choice whether to accept that antergy, though you are quite right that it exists. Still, I will be happy to do the math--I long ago built a calculator in a spreadsheet that accepts all these variables.

Baseline 65% chance to hit or crit both the caster and the illusions:
Mirror image is worth 9.75 AC on the first attack, 9.11 on the second, 8.39 on the third, 7.35 on the fourth, 6.14 on the fifth, and it averages 5.62 over the first ten attacks. 23% chance at least one image remains after ten attacks.

With mage armor, 50% chance to hit or crit the caster, 65% chance the illusions:
Mirror image is worth 7.5 AC on the first attack, 7.01 on the second, 6.45 on the third, 5.65 on the fourth, 4.72 on the fifth, and an average of 4.32 over the first ten. 23% chance at least one image remains after ten attacks (no change).

Mage armor: 3 AC
Mirror image: 5.62 AC, averaged over ten attacks
Mage armor + mirror image: 7.32 AC, averaged over ten attacks

For a wild or a storm, I would recommend keeping one or the other but not both, since the diminishing returns are significant and you can always use another spell known. Use your judgment based on your campaign, but I generally prefer mirror image. For a dragon, there is less opportunity cost to keep mirror image, so it depends how much defense you feel you need.

Now, for fun, boss fight! 80% chance to hit or crit both caster and images:
Mirror image is worth 12 AC on the first attack, 11.04 on the second, 9.91 on the third, 8.10 on the fourth, and 6.12 on the fifth, and it averages 5.86 over ten attacks. The chance of at least one illusion surviving is 10%.

Boss fight, with mage armor, 65% chance to hit or crit the caster, 80% the illusions:
Mirror image is worth 9.75 AC on the first attack, 8.97 on the second, 8.05 on the third, 6.58 on the fourth, and 4.97 on the fifth, and it averages 4.76 over ten attacks. (Still 10% chance of a dupe hanging around.)

Mage armor: 3 AC
Mirror image: 5.86 AC, averaged over ten attacks
Mage armor + mirror image: 7.97 AC, averaged over ten attacks

There is less loss from the combination of the two effects here, suggesting that dragons might be best served by holding on to mirror image and only using it against especially powerful opponents. Still the player's judgment call.

Cognomen's Cassowary said:

If you know which direction it's going, you don't center the web on it.

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Fair.
I do agree that web probably has the edge over gust in more cases. But they're still pretty close.

Then I have misjudged the situation. I've seen players do it with dozens of spells.

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So have I. However, I've never seen someone waste a scorching ray/hold person/shatter/ect... because you see the target before you cast.
(ok, i've seen a wasted fireball once, after a darkness + hide + misty step left everyone thinking the enemy was still there, but point still stands).

In the demonstration, it reduced the average incoming damage by 70%

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And it reduced your damage output by 73%. (5.5 firebolt instead of 21 scorching ray * same to-hit). Assuming you correctly pre-cast the spell.

It also has negative synergy with all the sub-classes (Wilds tides of chaos, storms tempetuous magic and heart of storm, and dragon has extra AC).

Anyways, I already moved it up to blue.

I guess you've never seen someone cast scorching ray on a fire-immune fiend. (In his defense, he didn't recognize it as a fiend. Not in his defense, that's because he was so eager to blast something up that he didn't take the time to let someone do a religion check.) I've also seen things like a paladin using her highest-level smite on a creature that had about 3 HP left. There are plenty of ways to mismanage resources.

If I correctly pre-cast mirror image, the use of that slot need not affect my DPR until the third round of combat, depending on how I played it. You have two 2nd-level slots at 3rd level, and you can create a third through flexible casting. You can actually create a fourth if you crunch three of your 1st-level slots; that would probably be ill advised, though. So I could still cast scorching ray in both of the first two rounds of combat, which is just about enough to defeat a 3rd-level sorcerer with shield.

That's still talking about the spell in the context of 3rd-level characters, as well. A 2nd-level slot becomes fairly inconsequential pretty quickly. The more spell slots you have, and the higher level, the less mirror image affects your DPR.

The negative synergy with dragon is real--that's what they get for taking the dumb subclass--though I'm not convinced that it's bad enough for them to forego mirror image altogether. The other negative synergies are pretty tenuous. By the same rationale, you could say that any spell cast out of combat has negative synergy with those features. You could also say that any spell which does not deal thunder or lightning damage has negative synergy with heart of the storm, and if the sorcerer avoids spells for that reason, he or she is left with a very short list. The wild and storm negative synergies are lessened as you gain more slots, as well.

Anyway, I'll leave it alone, though I do think the spell is underrated even at blue. I appreciate your guides, mellored.

Cognomen's Cassowary said:

The more spell slots you have, and the higher level, the less mirror image affects your DPR.

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Agreed. Though unlike a wizard, you can use that slot for more SP. It's not like you'll be stuck casting a level 2 scorching ray at level 20. It can instead be empowering cone of cold, or help sqeeze off one extra twined greater invisibility.

The wild and storm negative synergies are lessened as you gain more slots, as well.

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Agreed.

Anyway, I'll leave it alone, though I do think the spell is underrated even at blue.

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Disagree.
It's a strong spell when it works, sure, but I just see it as also being a bit niche. Barring 1v1 situations, most sorcerers just won't take that many attacks on any sort of regular basis. They will be in the back, supporting their tankier melee allies with concentration spells they don't want to lose. Most of the time, I see them poping out long enough to shoot a spell, and ducking back behind a wall.

Now, if your playing a 20 dex melee storm sorcerer, who spams booming blade and quicken thunderwave (not really worried about hitting), then yes, sky blue, possibly gold.

I appreciate your guides, mellored.

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I appreciate your feedback.

This conversation about Mirror Image has been a great subtopic.

Moving on to 3rd-level spells . . .

You could bump fireball down, or bump lightning bolt up. It's easy to say that fireball can hit more enemies, but lightning bolt is usually more useful indoors. It's also more viable as a single-target spell. They also don't scale terribly well, so its seems like the light-blue rating might only hold up for a couple of levels.

Is haste really light blue without twinned spell and a suitable party make-up?

I think you overrate both Melf's minute meteors and stinking cloud a little bit. The problem with Melf's is the amount of time that it takes to deal all of its damage; it's 12d6 damage overall, but predicting the combat two rounds out is difficult, so there is a good chance that some of that damage will be lost. Frequently you are better served taking the front-loaded 8d6 from a fireball or lightning bolt, even if only on a portion of the enemies. The scaling only makes the problem worse, without increasing the per-round damage.

Stinking cloud has a few problems. It's a Con save, its area is heavily obscured, it does nothing to slow movement, and a fair number of creatures are immune to it. Net effect, it's sort of a crapshoot whether any enemies are affected, your allies will have difficulty attacking them while they're in the cloud, and then they'll just walk out in one turn. It can consume a few actions in the first round, but it's not really effective control beyond that.

Then the big one, you underrate slow by a mile. Its effects are massive--halved movement, -2 to AC and Dex saves, no reactions, a choice between actions and bonus actions, only one attack on the victim's turn, a 50% chance to delay or deny any 1-action spell. For anyone who doesn't have careful spell, it is the better option than hypnotic pattern, and unlike that spell, it doesn't require a change in the way your side plays.

Cognomen's Cassowary said:

Moving on to 3rd-level spells . . .

You could bump fireball down, or bump lightning bolt up. It's easy to say that fireball can hit more enemies, but lightning bolt is usually more useful indoors. It's also more viable as a single-target spell. They also don't scale terribly well, so its seems like the light-blue rating might only hold up for a couple of levels.

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I havn't noticed many times i wanted lighting bolt over fireball.
Even in a hallway, indoors, you could effecivly have fireball be 5' x 40' and not hit your allies you're standing behind.
It is better at hitting single target's though.

Is haste really light blue without twinned spell and a suitable party make-up?

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If you just count damage, no. 2d6+4 is on par with melf's, but it also adds protection and maneuverability. Also useful for hit-and-run tactics. Booming blade and disengage. Or just for double speed * 2 dashes = 180' uncatchable. It's flexibility is a big benifit with sorcerer's limited list.
But i'll mention party makeup.

The problem with Melf's is the amount of time that it takes to deal all of its damage; it's 12d6 damage overall, but predicting the combat two rounds out is difficult, so there is a good chance that some of that damage will be lost. Frequently you are better served taking the front-loaded 8d6 from a fireball or lightning bolt, even if only on a portion of the enemies. The scaling only makes the problem worse, without increasing the per-round damage.

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Agreed.
But 12d6 (50% more than fireball) is still high enough to keep it blue, at least when you get it.

Stinking cloud has a few problems. It's a Con save, its area is heavily obscured, it does nothing to slow movement, and a fair number of creatures are immune to it. Net effect, it's sort of a crapshoot whether any enemies are affected, your allies will have difficulty attacking them while they're in the cloud, and then they'll just walk out in one turn. It can consume a few actions in the first round, but it's not really effective control beyond that.

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There's no difficulty hitting. Not seeing the enemy, and them not seeing you cancles out. Of course, that also means it doesn't stop arrows from the other side.
But i'll move it down. I was thinking about standing in it with cafeful a bit too much, giving extra chances to stun targets.

Then the big one, you underrate slow by a mile. Its effects are massive--halved movement, -2 to AC and Dex saves, no reactions, a choice between actions and bonus actions, only one attack on the victim's turn, a 50% chance to delay or deny any 1-action spell. For anyone who doesn't have careful spell, it is the better option than hypnotic pattern, and unlike that spell, it doesn't require a change in the way your side plays.

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Fair. I'll move it up to blue.

Okay, I agree with most of what you said. The limitation on fireball indoors is needing to be able to see a center point at least 20 feet away to avoid nuking your own party. So winding passages, umber hulk ambushes, even a simple 20 x 20 room can make fireball unusable. Combat also tends to be close quarters indoors, so if you don't roll well on initiative, you might never have the opportunity to cast fireball.

Regarding stinking cloud, I apologize for saying "attacking" when I meant "targeting." It sounds like you are treating heavy obscurity as though it only gives advantage and disadvantage. However, the first sentence runs, "A heavily obscured area—such as darkness, opaque fog, or dense foliage—blocks vision entirely" (PHB 183). Thus any spell that requires the caster see the target cannot be cast into the area. As far as attacks, per the rules on unseen attacker and targets, the DM might rule that your side has to guess where the targets are when attacking into the cloud (PHB 194-5).

A 20x20 twisted hallway fighting a umber hulk is the perfect time to cast careful stinking cloud. Blocking vision goes both ways, and it goes around corners.

Also, if your concentrating on stinking cloud, your probably don't need line of sight for other spells. You'll mostly be tossing firebolt (no disadvantage, even in melee, since 1 advantage cancels them all).

But that is careful stinking cloud.