Eberron- Noir, Steampunk, Adventure
Eberron is
not steampunk. It's relatively easy to bastardize into steampunk, for those so inclined, but it's not intended to be so.
With the original "roll 5d4 for stats", DS wasn't so much "hard mode" as "inflated mode". If you used standard character generation, it was definitely hard mode.
The reason I don't add planescape is because its cosmology, the positive and negative planes, the elemental planes, the 12 outer planes have all been added to the base cosmology in addition to the Feywild and Shadowfell.
Wow. I hadn't considered that angle, but I hope you're right. I've never been a particular fan of Planescape. I don't hate it, but it's not really my "thing", either. I've been assuming one of the settings would be Planescape and the other would be either Eberron or Dark Sun.
The big question is whether or not they've cracked Psionics behind the scenes and are just sitting on it. If they have I'd say that one of these primers we get will be Dark Sun and the other will either be Spelljammer or Planescape.
I think both Dark Sun and Eberron require psionics to do "right". You can completely ignore psionics in Eberron, if you want, but they're a major part of the setting, as a whole. Not at the same level as Dark Sun, but it'd be a bit like leaving out, say, warforged -- it doesn't necessarily break it and some folks would be happier doing so, but it leaves a big whole for many/most fans.
I feel like they'll get back to Ravenloft later and I feel like they may want to save Eberron as the "Best for last"
As pointed out, elsewhere, Eberron is the most popular D&D setting, after the Realms. It's also different enough to not inherently blur into the Realms (e.g. Greyhawk), but not so different as to be potentially niche (e.g. Dark Sun). Doing Eberron would be significant work, but it's also the the most likely "other" setting to be profitable. Plus, it'd make the "sick of the Realms" folks (like me) happy to have something different. I'm pretty sure Keith is poised to spam the crap out of the DM's Guild as soon as he's given the go ahead, so WotC has the added benefit of being able to have "official-ish" support for the setting without actually having to invest their own resources (though, this point could cut both ways -- I know I care a lot more about Keith's take on Eberron than anyone/everyone at WotC).
I still think Planescape is the most likely first setting, even though I hope you're right about it being defaulted into the Realms-based/implied setting. Dark Sun and Eberron are the most likely options for the other setting, just due to ready fan base -- assuming they've got psionics ready. Because Mearls has pretty much said psionics and Dark Sun will be released at the same time, I'm leaning towards Dark Sun.
Dark Sun + psionics, first, then Eberron would tickle me greatly, though. I'd definitely buy Eberron and am at least 75% likely to buy Dark Sun.