Desdichado
Hero
I think that's a conclusion that can only be reached if one assumes that D&D is the entirety of the hobby (yes, I know, someone will trot out a second-hand interpretation fo something Ryan Dancey once said about the numbers of D&D vs. other games.) But the schism between Pathfinder and 4e was effectively and remarkably previewed by the success of White Wolf in the 90s and the minor diaspora of D&D players prior to the introduction of 3e.You might think that D&D isn't a religion, but to a large extent the community is starting to behave like it is. Perhaps it's only natural because the community is ageing, but in IMO WotC is to blame for all of it.
And even prior to the announcement and previews of 4e, 3e was starting to show signs of an impending further diaspora of its own.