I've always thought the dragonborn controversy was a subset of the "DM-optional vs. player-optional" controversy.
Unfortunately, I don't think it's as simple as that. I think that, for some people at least, Dragonborn are emblematic of D&D 4e taking a direction that they simply
hate. Because the Edition Wars became as much a matter of emotion as logic, I don't think that can be resolved through rational discourse or logic.
I guess what I'm saying is, excluding options some people don't like from core causes just as many problems as including them (by angering the people who want dragonborn to be core and available to all players). Pushing controversial options off to later supplements solves the problem not a bit; it would make the player-optional people just as frustrated. From what we've heard, Wizards is strongly erring on the side of including lots of stuff.
I will be extremely surprised if Dragonborn are in the 5e core. I predict that this will make some people very unhappy indeed - but I also strongly suspect that this is the right thing to do.
I think you're drastically overestimating the number of options that could be included in 300 pages. What with a reasonable selection of monsters (including all important iconic monsters), traps and trap-creation rules, all that DM advice necessary to make the books noob-friendly, all of the game rules (including skills, rules for exploration, rules for gridless combat, rules for tabletop combat, other modules), I wouldn't be surprised if 300 pages are needed before you even get to a single player option. Throw in 40 or 50 pages of magic items (including scrolls, wands, and various magic armor and weapons for 20 levels) too. How many classes (along with attendant feats and themes and races, remember) could you fit after that, especially if you need to give classes like the Fighter the optional ability to do more than full attack every round (and so, need a few dozen pages of "powers" or "martial maneuvers")?
I really don't see how it could be done.
The first thing to do is to chop the level range. High-level play has always been much less popular than the lower-levels, and it has never quite worked right - largely because the designers just haven't had the time or space in the books to work out all of the kinks. So, the most sensible thing to do is to cut it from the core, and move it to a supplement for those who want it. That way, those who want it can get it, the designers have space to let it breath, and you save a huge amount of space in the core. So, don't include 30 levels of play in the core, or even 20 - include 10, or perhaps 15.
That single measure massively cuts down on the number of spells, powers, magic items, and monsters required. Now, looking at your list:
For monsters, switch to a concise 4e-style format to cut space, and select an "iconic 100" monsters. You get orcs, zombies, the weaker dragons, carrion crawlers and rust monsters, drow, the weaker giants... but not the most powerful dragons, no demon lords, no beholders... And don't insist on "one monster per page", either - present the full set in 40 pages.
For traps, present a fairly detailed toolkit for creating them, and then a number of examples, again in a very concise format. Do that in 10 pages, maximum.
(You didn't mention it, but do likewise for environmental hazards, for another 10 pages.)
Regarding DM advice, brevity is the soul of wit. Present DMs with hundreds of pages of advice, and you'll get a lot of DMs who don't read it, and then get confused. If you can't present that in 40 pages, you need to rewrite. Seriously. (And, actually, the best place for that stuff is online, in article form - present the whole thing in bite-size form and it's more likely to be digested.)
Next up, all the game rules (skills, rules for exploration, rules for gridless combat, rules for tabletop combat, other modules):
Ever since "d20 Modern", the skills have been presented in a very long, verbose format that gives a whole lot of detail about specific uses, time taken, and a whole bunch of stuff. Drop all of that stuff. Present the skills in a very simple format - give the skill name, and the minimal definition as to what it does, presenting a list (but not details) of things that it can be used for. Again, if you can't do that in 5 pages, you're doing it wrong.
The stuff that's just been cut from the skills chapter gets moved to Exploration, which does indeed require a significant amount of space. We need rules for light levels, for sneaking about, for climbing, jumping, and swimming, and a whole bunch of other stuff. But don't mess about here - present the topics with clear headings, give the relevant rules, and move on. 20 pages.
With the combat rules, pick
either gridless or tactical combat, and present it. The other is an optional module, to be presented elsewhere. Again, 20 pages. If you can't do it in that space, rewrite, or drop something.
Again, you didn't mention it, but add a chapter on Interactions, this being the third of the "three pillars" (and because we now need somewhere for the dropped material from the Diplomacy skill!). Because this is largely role-played, and pretty intuitive to most players, this is a shorter section than the previous two, say 10 pages.
You don't say what you think should be "other modules", but in truth it doesn't matter. Space is a premium - cut them.
Character creation rules can be presented quickly (2 pages), and ability scores are likewise short unless you waffle on at length (3 pages).
Present 4 core races, with a page each (5 pages - one for the introduction of races, and one each for Human, Elf, Dwarf, and Halfling).
Likewise, present 8 core classes, giving a decent mix of "power sources" and "roles" (but
never refer to these two things in the text!): Fighter, Rogue, Druid, Barbarian, Wizard, Bard, Cleric, Paladin. You should be able to present everything except the "power options" in four pages per class, so say 40 pages for the lot.
Now, since we're only presenting 10 levels of play, I'm going to say 20 pages for magic items, plus a further 5 for mundane equipment - keep it light and breezy.
And allow 20 pages for "dead space" - examples of play, the inevitable "what is D&D", introducing the dice, presenting the core mechanic, the foreword, and the adverts.
That leaves 50 pages out of my 300 for the "power options" - spells, martial maneuvers, and the like. Now, it is fair to say that that is
extremely tight. But if the Fighter, Rogue, Paladin and Barbarian share a lot of combat options, while the Paladin, Druid, Bard, Cleric and Wizard share a lot of spells, and you add a number of iconic abilities for each class...
I do, honestly, think it's doable.
(Plus, of course, D&D has always been quite unusual in having multiple books. Given that most games manage with just one, and given also the existence of the Rules Cyclopedia, in which D&D is presented in a single book, they really should be able to manage it.)
As for the core rulebooks vs. starter set, Wizards should position this new (and much improved) starter set as the right place for noobs to start, even going as far as to put a note in the PH saying "If you and your group are totally new, you want the starter set over there." But I suppose you're right; the more noob-friendly the core itself is, the better; there is no question some people will just not happen upon the starter set, or reject it out of hand.
Yeah. Don't get me wrong - a really good Starter Set is absolutely essential. But a lot of people are likely to get started by playing an intro session and then borrowing a book from a friend. And others will assume a "Starter Set" is somehow a kiddy version and ignore it on principle. So the core rulebook(s) do need to be at least viable as an entry mechanism, even if they're not ideal.
Now, I don't think it's feasible to include the whole core rulebook in the starter set. If there were only one core rulebook then it wouldn't be a starter set at all, it would be an expanded core set!
It's only viable if there is a
single Core Rulebook,
and you're willing to put the Starter Set at a very high price point. Is $100 too much, if it includes the book, character sheets, dice, miniatures (or cardboard pawns as in the Pathfinder set), dungeon tiles, spell-effect markers, two pre-gen adventures, and a CD of extras?
(I think that would be a very interesting experiment... but would also be a hell of a risk!)
I don't think it being "an expanded core set" is actually a bad thing, though. One of the big criticisms I've levelled against Starter Sets (including the Pathfinder box) is that they are "pay-for previews" - the expectation is that the customer will play them for a while and then upgrade, whereupon the consign the Starter Set, or at least the rule-booklets, to the bin.
(And so, if they hate the game, they've wasted their money. If they
like the game, they've wasted their money... Such a calculation makes it more likely they'll just jump straight to the core rulebooks, and then fail to wade through the 1,000 pages of bloated rules text, becoming yet another 'failed gamer'.)
And if there were multiple core rulebooks and this starter set included only the PH, then it would basically be a "PH with a watered down DMG and MM" set, which would be the opposite of helpful.
Agreed. If there's
one Core Rulebook, you can consider putting it in the Starter Set. If you stick with the 3-book model, then it's a bad idea.