I think your breakdown is likely correct. I'd tweak just one thing. Here's what I am anticipating as the new baseline:
I think you're right that we will get 5 books and 1 box set per year as the new baseline; I just don't think we'll always get 2 setting books. But it's certainly possible that the model moving forward is indeed for 2 setting books per year: one in the classic D&D multiverse, one outside of that.
- 1 adv. anthology
- 1 full adventure path/campaign story
- 1 setting
- 1 splat / monster / IP book
- 1 box set
- and an additional "floater" slot that is usually either a 2nd setting or a 2nd splat / monster / IP book
I think you're right that we will get 5 books and 1 box set per year as the new baseline; I just don't think we'll always get 2 setting books. But it's certainly possible that the model moving forward is indeed for 2 setting books per year: one in the classic D&D multiverse, one outside of that.