A question for super science geeks!

[The Grackle]

So if people could re-learn all this science, wouldn't mind flayers -- being incredibly intelligent -- learn it even faster? Why would they ignore all that knowledge and tech just lying around? And if they're psionic they could practically suck knowledge out of the brains of surviving scientists.
By the start of the campaign the Mind Flayers should have electric lights, jets, and cell phones.


Personally, I'd love to play a game like this w/lots of hard science, but not D&D. Physics + magic = headaches.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

How many die in the ELE, you ask?

Assuming widespread destruction of major cities, assuming current demographics, that's more than 1/2 the population right there.

Some more would die due to ancillary effects- fires, disease, starvation, & exposure- as well as interaction with those who are better prepared for such an event (like those with hunting & farming skills) and who either defend what they have or aggressively acquire things from others to fill their needs.

Such as showing how to use pre iron age technology to smelt copper on a beach using little more than a few leather bellows a few nights ago on Coast.<snip many good points>

I didn't know that.

To compare, with 2 post-graduate degrees, I could maybe dredge my memories for the abilty to start a fire, and the mechanics of how to build a bow...but finding the right materials for that, and identifying poisonous flora or stalking wild game? If I could find other people to team up with, I have some valuable info (like some education on farming techniques) that could aid an already somewhat stable group. But barring that, I'm pretty sure I'd be among the 90% of civilized humans to die out.

I'm not saying that civilization relaunch wouldn't be faster- in fact, I'm counting on it. I'm envisioning the relaunch from stone age to typical FRPG levels would take around 2000 years, with certain more advanced technologies (modern equivalent) being available in a settlement-by-settlement basis. (For example, I think it would be way cool if a certain settlement were reknown for their polycarbonate riot shields.) Still, even with pockets of civilization reasserting themselves quickly, their influence will be local at best. A bedroom community of well equipped LARPing engineers may have a lot of knowledge about how to do things, but will they have the materials and physical plant neccessary to work steel? That kind of tech may still take generations to recapture. The knowledge is there, but practical factors would still be a hinderance- are they located near a source of iron ore? Does anyone actually recognize iron ore when they see it?

Even though metallic ores are relatively common, they still may not be found where the people with the knowledge of how to mine and work it are...especially if the local mines played out centuries before Starfall. I mean, we're spoiled in the modern age of rail & air freight- you don't have to be near the materials to get them quickly. But when that freight infrastructure is gone...

Add to that the fact that there are also intelligent forces at work that would inhibit the regrowth of powerful surface civilizations. First would be the Illithids themselves. The core of their plan is that they cripple the surface world to make those remnants much easier to control. Despite being accidentally crippled in their assault, the Illithids on this mission are highly trained, and they'd quickly try to make the most of their situation, including landing near and raiding any above average site they could... Second would be any other surviving subterranean empire, especially those unaware of the Illithid threat. Third would be a certain organization- The Verdant Hand- who (unaware of the Illithids intentions) see the Starfall as a reset that will give Nature a chance to purge itself of the excesses of civilization- think of the aggressive green groups like the E.L.F. and you're on the right track.

 

[Pbartender]

I could maybe dredge my memories for the abilty to start a fire, and the mechanics of how to build a bow...but finding the right materials for that, and identifying poisonous flora or stalking wild game?

To be completely honest, even most of the people who are into hunting and camping and other "survivalist" activities can't really do it. Most rely on fairly modern technologies for assistance. Once the bullets and matches run out, they'd be just as stuck as anyone else.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I would expect a large-ish percentage of the survivors to be special forces and true backwoods types, and they could go a looooong time without modern conveniences...but those guys probably don't have the skillset to rebuild society.

And on the other side, the people with the "rebuilding" skillset are probably going to be short on survival skills.

Its a race- the amount of time it takes for both sides to hook up will determine if & when civilization makes it anywhere.

 

[pbd]

How many die in the ELE, you ask?

Assuming widespread destruction of major cities, assuming current demographics, that's more than 1/2 the population right there.

Some more would die due to ancillary effects- fires, disease, starvation, & exposure- as well as interaction with those who are better prepared for such an event (like those with hunting & farming skills) and who either defend what they have or aggressively acquire things from others to fill their needs.



I didn't know that.

To compare, with 2 post-graduate degrees, I could maybe dredge my memories for the abilty to start a fire, and the mechanics of how to build a bow...but finding the right materials for that, and identifying poisonous flora or stalking wild game? If I could find other people to team up with, I have some valuable info (like some education on farming techniques) that could aid an already somewhat stable group. But barring that, I'm pretty sure I'd be among the 90% of civilized humans to die out.

<snip>

With 10% of the current population still around, I don't think the planet would even be taken back to the stone age. I'm thinking like Germany in WW2 Europe in the worst bombed areas (Dresden, Dusseldorf). Albeit without outside help. The infrastructure is gone, but with the knowledge still available (10% of 6 billion is 600 million after all!) they will rebuild communities in a few decades and be back to a larger nation/state status in a century.

Humans are resilient, if not we would not have survived to become a dominant species.

 

[Warren Okuma]

To be completely honest, even most of the people who are into hunting and camping and other "survivalist" activities can't really do it. Most rely on fairly modern technologies for assistance. Once the bullets and matches run out, they'd be just as stuck as anyone else.

My friends brother is a survivalist. He is really good with a bow, which he hunts with during bowhunting season and can make arrows. My uncle hunts boar with only a knife. Oh, and I (not a survivalist) can make gunpowder from scratch (a hobby really). I don't know what kind of survivalists you know...

On stuff surviving...

It depends. There are paper and leather goods that have survived for 2,000 years. It all depends on the environmental situation. Trash dumps are wonderful places where stuff tends to survive. Some trash dumps are plastic lined, to prevent stuff from getting into the water supplies. These will have the best amount of stuff surviving. Dry climates can preserve a lot, as well as collapsed buildings. Stuff in military arsenals in dun... I mean bunkers can last a very long time, especially the weird airtight ones they don't let my friends near...

On tech. Look at an encyclopedia. If just one set survives, technology will recover. If any of my books survive, I can do a full on industrial revolution. I got books on steam engines, industrial theory, and tons of chemistry books. How many books from science/engineering students are out there in the country? Tons I bet.

And making ammunition is really easy. Black powder is sulfur charcoal and saltpeter. Sulfur can be extracted from rocks and other sources (provided you know a good rockhound or geologist or get a book, just trial and error), and saltpeter from manure. Making modern ammunition is a bit more complicated. But if there is one chemist (or hobbyist) that survived or science historian all you need is electrical power, and a nitrogen and sulfur source (rocks, manure... a pain in the butt) and either mercury (if you want to do a mercury fulminate) or lead (for lead azide) or potassium perchlorate.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

The infrastructure is gone, but with the knowledge still available (10% of 6 billion is 600 million after all!) they will rebuild communities in a few decades and be back to a larger nation/state status in a century.

I guess I'm a bit more pessimistic on this point.

It's my feeling- really, that is all it is- that people rely a bit more on books & other data storage media today than they realize.

Even with 600M people surviving the initial onslaught, you still have to have the right mix of survivors in any given area. You need people with proper smithing skills, for instance. Once a relatively common profession, the blacksmith (the craftsman who makes all tools) has largely been replaced by the industrial factory worker, at least in most First World nations.

You travel to developing countries, and you have a different story. In an interview in the 1990s, the leader of a Middle Eastern nation once mocked UN sanctions & boycotts, pointing out that what the world was denying his country were goods they had only had access to for 40 years.

And it is precisely the world powers' population centers & military installations that would be most heavily targeted by the Illithids...meaning survivor distribution would be "lumpy" and uneven.

I think I'm going to start a related thread on this...

On stuff surviving...

It depends. <snip many good examples>

I understand that books are wonderful ways to concentrate knowledge, and that just a few surviving tomes could provide a great kickstart to the rebuilding process...

This is one of the reasons I chose the meteoric strike as the method of Illithid-induced ELE.

After suviving the initial onslaught, there is going to be a severe temp drop due to the ejecta from the impact craters. Like the citizens in Asimov's Nightfall, people will be looking for anything they can get their hands on to keep warm, and paper products are going to be among the first things to dissapear. Even if there are books out there in the countryside, survivors who know their ecosystems will probably burn pre-cut wood first (from their woodpiles), then less valuable paper products (newspapers, magazines, reciepts) & other superfluous burnables. Depending upon the length of the meteoric winter, eventually, they'd have to choose between live trees and dead-tree products.

My personal guess- Bibles & similar religious tomes would be among the last to go (not only might some be more religious minded after an apocalypse, typically, such tomes are informal resources for family records), right after manuals on maintaining important equipment & D.I.Y. books. Encyclopedias would also be among the last to go...but actual engineering texts? From-scratch find-the-materials-mine-the-materials-refine-the-materials-make-the-tools-make-the-machines type manuals? Given the choice between heat & that kind of book...

Like some of my world's inhabitants, you live in an island chain. People there will probably survive with much more of their infrastructure intact, if for no other reason than most islands have an import-based economy. They may be nearly self-sufficient for food, but they must import most fuel, tech, and raw materials (like most of the industrial metals) from elsewhere. Islands would simply be low priority targets, and would probably experience more damage from tsunamis than anything else.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Here's the "Survivor" thread.

http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=214527

 

[Warren Okuma]

I guess I'm a bit more pessimistic on this point.

It's my feeling- really, that is all it is- that people rely a bit more on books & other data storage media today than they realize.

Even with 600M people surviving the initial onslaught, you still have to have the right mix of survivors in any given area. You need people with proper smithing skills, for instance. Once a relatively common profession, the blacksmith (the craftsman who makes all tools) has largely been replaced by the industrial factory worker, at least in most First World nations.

I have books that can teach you how to be a blacksmith. Trial and error. It's doable, but a lot of hard work. There are tons of tools that can be used for blacksmithing. You just need the books, and will to live. Or you can just rebuild the factories and machine shops, bypassing the blacksmith way.

I understand that books are wonderful ways to concentrate knowledge, and that just a few surviving tomes could provide a great kickstart to the rebuilding process...

This is one of the reasons I chose the meteoric strike as the method of Illithid-induced ELE.

After suviving the initial onslaught, there is going to be a severe temp drop due to the ejecta from the impact craters. Like the citizens in Asimov's Nightfall, people will be looking for anything they can get their hands on to keep warm, and paper products are going to be among the first things to dissapear. Even if there are books out there in the countryside, survivors who know their ecosystems will probably burn pre-cut wood first (from their woodpiles), then less valuable paper products (newspapers, magazines, reciepts) & other superfluous burnables.

In the mid and northern regions, yes, but I live in Hawaii, and is surrounded by woods. Florida? Not so much. A drop of ten degrees is serious, yes, but livable. Lots of houses are insulated and would do surprisingly well even if a ten degree drop. All books burned? Not likely. How about the books and knowledge in the garbage dumps? Lots of stuff will be in there. Oh and how about folks trying to get the coal and oil fields to work again? Sure it takes skill, but they have motivation and maybe manuals. Also there are tons of deposits of coal that are non economical to mine...

Depending upon the length of the meteoric winter, eventually, they'd have to choose between live trees and dead-tree products.

There are tons of woods, depending where you live.

My personal guess- Bibles & similar religious tomes would be among the last to go (not only might some be more religious minded after an apocalypse, typically, such tomes are informal resources for family records), right after manuals on maintaining important equipment & D.I.Y. books. Encyclopedias would also be among the last to go...but actual engineering texts? From-scratch find-the-materials-mine-the-materials-refine-the-materials-make-the-tools-make-the-machines type manuals? Given the choice between heat & that kind of book...

And sometimes you live near a forest. And sometimes your solar panels and wind farms still work or can be fixed...

Like some of my world's inhabitants, you live in an island chain. People there will probably survive with much more of their infrastructure intact, if for no other reason than most islands have an import-based economy. They may be nearly self-sufficient for food, but they must import most fuel, tech, and raw materials (like most of the industrial metals) from elsewhere.

In Hawaii you can do biofuel. You can make alcohol. It's not like it's hard. We already know how to do this. Materials can be harvested from garbage dumps or salvaged. Trade can be restarted.

Islands would simply be low priority targets, and would probably experience more damage from tsunamis than anything else.

Somewhat. It depends on the location. I however live on the high ground near the middle, so I'm not so much in trouble. And islands tend to have shock cocoons and safe areas. Junk yards and cities will yield salvage, metals and whatever survives. Underground garages will have tons of raw materials, and the meteors might yield metals.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I have books that can teach you how to...

I have books that teach me all kinds of things, but since I live in a major metropolitan area, I doubt any would survive the initial strike or the subsequent fires as gas lines erupt and the city basically burns down.

The key knowledge that would let you rebuild society is whatever you can retain at your mental fingertips. Surviving books are fine- if I have them- but before I could get my smithy up and running, I'd need:

1) Food
2) Water
3) Shelter

Without those, I won't live long enough to get to the higher order tasks, and I sure as heck won't have time to re-read my old Scouting manuals...assuming I could even find them. And I'd need those 3 things in amounts large enough (or easy enough to aquire) that I have time to do tasks other than look for sustinence.

After that, I'd need:

4) Combustibles
5) Knowledge of the locations of raw materials or scrap that I can reforge.
6) Tools to build the tools that I'll need to build the smithy.
7) The ability to distinguish between what I can work with and what I can't. (As an amateur jeweler, I understand & recognize precious metals far better than base ones.)

Etc.

Essentially, I have to win the sprint of survival before I can even compete in the marathon of rebuilding.

Or you can just rebuild the factories and machine shops, bypassing the blacksmith way.

If all you have is basic combustibles like wood or paper, your factory has no fuel that will run the machinery in a machine shop.

How about the books and knowledge in the garbage dumps?

I've been to 3 dumps in my vicinity. The books you'd find there would largely be unreadable- torn, shredded, and damaged by liquid wastes...assuming you can even find them in all the tons and tons of debris.

Could you get lucky? Sure! But the odds are stacked against you. You're more likely to find things you can use as fuel or building material in a dump than you are usable literature.

...We already know how to do this.

Some of us already know how to do this and other tasks. How quickly the rebuilding goes depends upon 1) how many of them survive the ELE and 2) their ability to bridge the gap between immediate survival of the ELE and the actual business of rebuilding society- not a single task, but a multitude of smaller steps.