Chance to hit decreases as you level

[Lakoda]

Assumptions:
1) The average monster AC is 14 (ruffly -2 for Artillery and Brutes and +2 for Soldiers, Elites and Solos).
2) The average character starts with an 18 in their primary attack ability score and will increase it at every opportunity (4/8/14/18/24/28).
3) Enhancement bonus is by half tier (aka Item tier).
4) Feat, class, and proficiency bonuses to attack are static (they do not scale/increase as a character levels) so I could pretty safely ignore them. I won't, not completely, I 'll just go with the larger +3 proficiency bonus and ignore the rest.

The workspace for attack bonuses is 1/2 level + ability modifier + proficiency bonus + enhancement bonus + feat/class/misc. This generates a table of values from 1 to 30 that scales (albeit awkwardly) from a +8 at level 1 to a +32 at level 30. The issue is that if you subtract the attack bonus (for that level) from the average AC (for that level) you get an ever increasing number. 7 at level 1 up to 12 by level 30; that's an increase of 5 over 30 levels (or 1 every 4).

I can think of three reasons for this. The first is that as your damage increases the designers thought it would be a good idea to lower the chance to hit so that your dps does not change (at least no very much). I didn't run the numbers for this because it is very obviously wrong. If dps stayed the same then hit points should not increase, since they do, this theory is out.

The second idea I had is that the system is broken. I have not played beyond level 10 (the difference is only 9 by that point) so I don't know if this could be true. Throughout the heroic tier you have few (comparatively) options/powers available to you so combat is a grind. Either purposely or accidentally the numbers keep 4e a grind through out all levels. A topic for another post, but the epic tier monsters and XP numbers are slanted up a considerable amount (to compensate for the damage increase and to slow your insane over powered behind down some) - why increase you damage just to slow you down, some one felt it epic meant big numbers without going anywhere.

Why slow the game down? This makes no sence to me, so my third idea is that I am missing something. Am I?

 

[s-dub]

I think some of this scaling it to take into account synergistic powers and scaling of certain powers:

If I have a warlord with commander's strike the bonus to hit at level 30 could easily be double what it was at level 1.

Also, there are other defenses besides AC, almost every class gets one or two powers that can target other defenses. Part of playing a savvy character is figuring out which defense to attack.

 

[keterys]

It's also easier to gain combat advantage as your mobility and number of powers that daze and stun increase. There are a host of powers that increase chance to hit or decrease defenses of target, and these get more and more common as you get higher level.

Apparently PHB2 will include a feat that gives +1 to hit with a weapon or implement type, which will help make up some of the gap too.

 

[DDogwood]

What others have said. There is a bit of a gap between PC attack bonuses and monster defenses as you go up in level, but the PCs have a LOT of options with their powers by high levels, too. Paragon Paths and Epic Destinies let them do indirect things that make encounters easier, so making the PC attacks a little less likely to hit keeps things challenging.

 

[Ryujin]

I'm having a little trouble following your math model. Did you include the fact that characters will likely have weapons/implements that increase their hit chances with their primary attack forms? I would presume that to be +4/+5 in the levels 26-30 area.

 

[Lakoda]

I'm having a little trouble following your math model. Did you include the fact that characters will likely have weapons/implements that increase their hit chances with their primary attack forms? I would presume that to be +4/+5 in the levels 26-30 area.

Besides the magical enhancement bonus no, and that's because there currently isn't anything like that that is not an effect from a power.

 

[Ryujin]

Besides the magical enhancement bonus no, and that's because there currently isn't anything like that that is not an effect from a power.

If that lagging of approx. 5 points in attack bonus is in fact covered by magically enhanced tools, then it would appear to already have been factored in. There's no issue unless you want to run a low-magic campaign, which clearly isn't the direction that 4th Edition has gone. 4th is all about collecting 'stuff.'

 

[Pickles JG]

Besides the magical enhancement bonus no, and that's because there currently isn't anything like that that is not an effect from a power.

You need to improve by 29 points from 1 to 30 to keep pace with monsters. Level accounts for 15 of that & magic 6 so there is an 8 point gap.

Your attack stat had better go up by 8 for +4 so 4 points worse off at 30th.

AC will go up by 6 for heavy armour users & 4 for the others if its a primary or secondary so a 2 point or 4 point worsening.

NADs will be the worst off. The one off your primary stat & secondary if boosted goes up by 4 again. The other one by 1 so you are 7 points easier to hit in the NADs at 30th that 1st - which is huge.

There are a bunch of easy mitigators - feats for NADs & AC. Demigod for +1 to 2 things - importanly attack. A fair few items have bonuses to the NADs outside of Enhancement bonuses - in light of the dificulty keeping up these seem fair enough. The +1 attack feat it utterly tediously broken but keeps you up with the curve.

I think that combats will get more grindy at higher level but there are some stupendous powers out there to compensate - I have no idea how this all balances out but I do not think its quite as bad as the PC attack & defences in isolation would indicates. Except getting hit in yout worse NAD on a 2 all the time.....

I think the PCs should probalby ahve got a 1 point bump to everything at paragon & epic but its clunky & everything may well be alright.

 

[Lakoda]

I don't think you are following me fully. I will try to explain for clearly. When I calculated the attack bonus for a given level I assumed that they'd max their primary attribute (not taking racial bonus into account, so the max at first level is 18)., wield a +3 proficiency weapon, and have a level appropriate magic item (along with +1/2 level).

So at level 1, that's +4 from their primary attribute, the +3 prof, a +1 magic item, and +0 for half level. That's a +8 bonus.

By level 30 they have increased their primary ability score from 18 (+4) to 26 (+8). Their magic item would be +6 and half level is +15. That's a total of +32.

The average AC is level + 14. So at level 1 you hit on a roll of 7 or higher (that would be an AC of 15 minus the +8 to hit). Level 30 requires a 12 or higher to hit (AC of 44 minus the +15 to hit).

So, in a 1 on 1 fighter between a min-maxed character and a monster of the same level, it gets harder to land a hit as you level.

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(edit) So my whole point for doing this was that I wanted to find out if you really needed to min-max a character to have a chance to hit. The combat focus of 4e makes it a simple answer. Yes, you need a maxed primary attack stat to have a chance in hell of hitting anything.

I certainly hope they do not add blanket +1 to hit with weapon A or implement B. That just makes implements even more sucky then they already are.

 

[Ryujin]

If that was meant for me then you're right, I wasn't following you. I didn't see that explicitly stated and had the same problem with your follow-up.