Changeover Poll

[Dannyalcatraz]

To be honest, I had thought the numbers would be different this time around. I argued that there were a number of posters, back in the original poll, that like me were in the middle of a 3e (or whatever) campaign and would likely switch over when that ended and the whole "splitting the fanbase" thing wasn't as large as it appeared.

Well, it appears that I was wrong. The split is very much there. A real shame I suppose. Although it does speak a lot to the strength of the 3e ruleset I suppose.

In any case, I'm more than big enough (hey, stop with the fat jokes, I'm sensitive) to admit when I'm mistaken.

Oddly enough, even though I'm in the "no 4Ed for me, thank you very much" camp, I agree with you about the way this poll is shaping up. This really doesn't look like what happened in the 2Ed=>3Ed changeover.

I hoped 3.5 would continue to be a strong market force, but I expected- as WotC probably did- to see a slow changeover to 4Ed, with 3.5 lovers like me accounting for 25-33% of the "D&D nation."

This 55+% "anti-4Ed" result to me does seem to speak volumes about the strength of the 3.X system...as well as the effect that 3PP had upon the gaming market.

Still, only time will tell if the numbers for installed customer base will translate into lagging sales for the new product, since it is really designed to bring new blood into the hobby and/or brand. (And maybe "drain the swamp" of 3PPs, as some have alleged.)

 

[Wormwood]

Complete changeover in both of my groups.

I've either given away or sold all of my previous edition books. Boxes and boxes---gone! My wife is very happy.

 

[Jack99]

QFT

At least until 5th... maybe.

Yeah, that's gonna keep the E-wars out of this thread.

No change; tried it, went back to a previous edition.

Which one, out of curiosity?

Oddly enough, even though I'm in the "no 4Ed for me, thank you very much" camp, I agree with you about the way this poll is shaping up. This really doesn't look like what happened in the 2Ed=>3Ed changeover.

And you are surprised by this?

I hoped 3.5 would continue to be a strong market force, but I expected- as WotC probably did- to see a slow changeover to 4Ed, with 3.5 lovers like me accounting for 25-33% of the "D&D nation."

Where did you get those numbers? Especially on what WotC thinks and expects. Could you link the article in question?

This 55+% "anti-4Ed" result to me does seem to speak volumes about the strength of the 3.X system...as well as the effect that 3PP had upon the gaming market.

Or a thousand other things...

Still, only time will tell if the numbers for installed customer base will translate into lagging sales for the new product, since it is really designed to bring new blood into the hobby and/or brand. (And maybe "drain the swamp" of 3PPs, as some have alleged.)

What is interesting is despite the fact that 26% say they never tried it, 4e still outsells the previous edition(s) if we go by any of the indicators we have available, instead of relying on random polls. So either polls like this one are not representative, or there is something else happening. Maybe it's the new blood or something.

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Anyway, just to finish off this whole poll debate. Back when I played WoW, some guys weren't happy about the boards provided by Blizzard, so they made their own board, for the server. It quickly became popular amongst the raidguilds and those who wanted to be in the raidguilds. Had Blizzard come to our boards and conducted any polls, they would have found out some interesting things about our server. People play on average 35+ hours per week. They raid 3+ days a week, and pvp around 10 hours a week. The average number of level 60 characters (back in the day) was 2.1.

Now, do you really think we were a good representation of people who play WoW? Or even of our server? In case some of you know nothing of WoW, let me give you a hint. Those numbers are nowhere near average nor normal for the average WoW'er, as raiders and hardcore pvp'er represent less than 2-3% of the general WoW population.

It's precisely the same with ENworld.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Oddly enough, even though I'm in the "no 4Ed for me, thank you very much" camp, I agree with you about the way this poll is shaping up. This really doesn't look like what happened in the 2Ed=>3Ed changeover.

And you are surprised by this?

Honestly, yes.

In that changeover, by the time 3Ed had been out this long, 2Ed was pretty much a dead product.

I know- in many ways 2Ed was a dead product before 3Ed's release. Even so, there were some holdouts, but they were far and few between.

As I've said elsewhere, I felt 3Ed was a strong product and the changeover to 4Ed was poorly handled, premature, and included too many design changes.

But even with all of that, I didn't expect 55+% to remain as holdouts.

Where did you get those numbers? Especially on what WotC thinks and expects. Could you link the article in question?

My apologies- that sentence didn't say what I meant, which was

I hoped 3.5 would continue to be a strong market force, but I expected- as WotC probably did- to see a slow changeover to 4Ed. My expectation is that 3.5 lovers like me would account for 25-33% of the "D&D nation."

<revisions mine>

This 55+% "anti-4Ed" result to me does seem to speak volumes about the strength of the 3.X system...as well as the effect that 3PP had upon the gaming market.

Or a thousand other things...

Not really. Its simple market analysis.

There are few people who would deny themselves access to a good or superior product simply out of spite. Thus, there must be reasons for the decisions to not change to 4Ed- and most (not all) of those reasons will be rational.

Occam's razor applied, the majority of those people opting not to changeover do not perceive 4Ed to be a good or superior product to 3.X or its 3PP analogs.

What is interesting is despite the fact that 26% say they never tried it, 4e still outsells the previous edition(s) if we go by any of the indicators we have available, instead of relying on random polls. So either polls like this one are not representative, or there is something else happening. Maybe it's the new blood or something.

New blood is the most likely reason for those sales, at least at this stage of the 4Ed roll-out.

 

[FallenTabris]

If all you have run is Keep on the Shadowfell, then you haven't played the game for a real shakedown period yet (IMO). (It's likely still new and shiny to you.) Some people, after playing it a while, have found 4E to be lacking for various reasons. On the other hand, there are those who have fallen in love with it, so the reason you don't understand might be simply a lack of experience with the game.

Keep on the Shadowfell is only what we last were doing. Before I even started using the module I ran them through a dwarven tomb of my own creation, a raid by goblins on a poor town, and some skill challenges involving an investigation into a cult of a white dragon.

Many of the frustrations/complaints I have seen from people that have played it are:

1) Sameness of classes
2) Combats are repetitive (same actions by the same PCs each time)
3) Combat grinds (combat outcome is known long before the end of it)
4) Wizards lack the appeal of the wizards of past editions
5) Not all that was core in 3.x is core in 4E ("Core" being defined as the PH, DMG, and MM)

Of course, there are those which have played and have no problems with any of the above, but for those who are not playing anymore, these are some of the reasons often mentioned.

1 - I've seen that on message boards but not heard it in person.
2 - I think that depends on the individual. One guy we had to remind he had other things to do besides just swing his axe.
3 - That I could agree with concidering how hit points are so high with some monsters/npcs. Taking into account the limited use powers, I could see an encounter turning into an At Will slap fest. But I've seen teh same with World of Darkness, HERO, and other rpgs.
4 - Oh yeah they certainly work differently. I see a feature where others see a bug. Fair enough.
5 - Druids and bards were my favorite classes in previous editions. The wait for them to be incorporated with a PH2 bothers me. Not enough to walk away from 4e, but if someone else gives this edition a pass I'd be sympathetic.

 

[WereSteve]

Looked over the 4E core rulebooks when they came out and decided it wasn't for me. Sometime in January my current group will be stepping into The Wayback Machine and returning to 2.5E Core Rules with the possible side trek into OSRIC territory as time goes by. Nothing quite like an old school Wilderlands hack and slash fest.

 

[Jack99]

Honestly, yes.

In that changeover, by the time 3Ed had been out this long, 2Ed was pretty much a dead product.

I know- in many ways 2Ed was a dead product before 3Ed's release. Even so, there were some holdouts, but they were far and few between.

As I've said elsewhere, I felt 3Ed was a strong product and the changeover to 4Ed was poorly handled, premature, and included too many design changes.

But even with all of that, I didn't expect 55+% to remain as holdouts.

I will give you that. If we assume the 55% who voted to be a correct indication of the ENworld situation, it does seem like a lot. I expected maybe half of that, but not that much. However, I still do not think those numbers are anywhere near reality if we look at all players.

Not really. Its simple market analysis.

There are few people who would deny themselves access to a good or superior product simply out of spite. Thus, there must be reasons for the decisions to not change to 4Ed- and most (not all) of those reasons will be rational.

Occam's razor applied, the majority of those people opting not to changeover do not perceive 4Ed to be a good or superior product to 3.X or its 3PP analogs.

I agree to a certain degree, although evidence presented on these boards seem to indicate that quite a few of those who chose not to move to 4e has done so because they feel slighted by WotC. The GSL and an apparent hostile marketing campaign being sited as examples quite often. I do however think there is one thing that's worth mentioning, which has contributed to people not switching as well. The sheer amount of material they have collected during the OGL-era. Quite a few have mentioned that as a reason to switch: "I have 3.x material enough to last me a lifetime, I like 3.x, why should I switch". For those that think that 4e is clearly superior (like myself) it didn't matter how much they had, it was an easy choice to switch. For those that feel that 4e is good, but not necessarily better than 3.x, I can understand why they wouldn't want to switch. Especially coupled with the fact that the OGL ensures that it's at least possible to keep publishing material for that edition.

New blood is the most likely reason for those sales, at least at this stage of the 4Ed roll-out.

Wouldn't that be awesome? That would seem to indicate a lot of new people starting to play D&D.

 

[pogre]

I voted complete changeover, but I have a feeling this will probably be our last 4e campaign.

I started a 4e homebrew campaign and promptly TPK'd the PCs in session 2. I decided "it's me, not you" and started again - this time we are going to follow the WOTC adventure path.

We have had three fairly long sessions and there is still a fair amount of dissatisfaction for some of my players. They all like gaming together - so they will slog on willingly during this test drive.

If we give up on 4e after the campaign we won't return to D&D. Probably play WFRP 2e until 5th edition rolls out.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Wouldn't that be awesome? That would seem to indicate a lot of new people starting to play D&D.

It would indeed be awesome in that sense. I honestly don't care much who plays what, as long as our hobby continues to grow...as long as they don't want ME to DM 4th.

You never know, someone who is at this moment buying 4Ed D&D or HERO 5th might create the next truly revolutionary game...

 

[Samurai]

I voted "never played 4e, still playing older edition."

That said, I have bought several 4e books (the core books, the 2 Forgotten Realms books, Martial Power, and Manual of the Planes). While there are many flaws in 4e, I would like to play it someday, and reading the books is interesting... I'm not just a player, I'm an rpg collector, so having at least the main 4e rulebooks is pretty much a requirement, even if I don't play it (I have dozens of other games I've never had a chance to play either.)

Our group has decided to stick with 3.5 for now. They already have the rule books so no additional purchase needed. They already know the rules. We are playing in Scarred Lands, which is a 3.x setting, and all the setting materials would require conversion. Plus, at least half the group is not happy with what they've read or heard about 4e, and so have no interest in switching anyway. So, our group remains 3.5, probably will remain so for the foreseeable future, but I'm still buying some 4e books anyway.

I wonder if others like me help account for the sale of 4e books despite few people actually switching over to it in their gaming groups?